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Ultimate Clemson Legend [108925]
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Putting this in politics. Tweet got me thinking.
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Jan 15, 2025, 12:43 PM
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Trump says all these off the wall things and mouth breathers eat it up. I mentioned the deal with Texas. Trump deports all the illegals, of whom 1.1 MILLION are employed/working, and Texas currently has 680K "unemployed". So if Trump kicks out the illegals, and 100% of the unemployed take those lost jobs (not happening), then that only leaves Texas 420K humans short of the CURRENT labor supply. And that's just Texas.
Anyway....
His tariff remarks also made me scratch my head. Trump said tariffs made America great. We used to run on tariffs before the income tax came along (pre-1916). Trump says he wants to abolish the income tax and once again be "great" and run on tariffs. So I dug around and finally found the chart showing what needs to be shown:
Which it's clear the VAST majority of the money our governemnt has been spending since the 1930's, came from income and payroll taxes. OK, fine.
SO.....next questions are obvious. WHAT is the total universe of imports upon which we can apply tariffs? What are the totals for US governemnt revenue currently, and what are the total amount of imports we import, and what's the difference? Keep in mind unemployment is around 4% and prime age LPR is around 85%, at record highs.
Seems in 2023, total federal revenues were $4.4 trillion. This is mostly income tax, payroll tax, much smaller corporate taxes, then much smaller tariffs (roughly 2% of federal revenue currently), etc. So how much do we import yearly? Get this....only $3.8 trillion. So assume we don't touch social security (payroll taxes). Fully 53% of our revenue comes from income taxes. So with $3.8 trillion in imports, losing $2.2-ish trillion from income tax, we have to tax ALL IMPORTS FROM EVERYWHERE at 51%, and assume the American consumer will swallow that. Now, keep in mind we're STILL spending $1.8 trillion OVER that $4.4T in revenue (deficit). So cut spending $2 trillion (as Trump promises) and you end the deficit, but you STILL have to have a 51% tariff on everything to keep our funding levels stable, and more importantly, an American consumer willing to spend that. Your "no more income tax" windfall will be completely eaten up, and then some, on inflation.
Now tack on a decline in domestic labor of say, 10%, and that leaves us.......yeah.
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Orange Elite [5218]
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And throw in the likelihood of triggering a trade war on top of that...
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Jan 15, 2025, 12:50 PM
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Someone posted a link here to the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act the other day, and within that, there was this little gem:
"The tariffs under the act ... were the second highest in United States history. ... The Act prompted retaliatory tariffs by many other countries. The Act and tariffs imposed by America's trading partners in retaliation were major factors of the reduction of American exports and imports by 67% during the Great Depression."
If Trump does what he continues to say that he'll do with his aggressive tariffs plan, then the inflation we're seeing today may end up looking like Christmas.
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Top TigerNet [30276]
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Conversely
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Jan 15, 2025, 12:59 PM
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and not discounting your reference here as I think it's accurate and relevant.
However.
We got China on the ropes. Me thinks their current financial situation is much, much, much worse than ours. Let's push em to the brink to see what happens.
But this is very biased. B/c #### China.
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Ultimate Tiger [35140]
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Having China "on the ropes" might not be a good thing....
Jan 16, 2025, 8:58 PM
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I don't think we want them desperate and lashing out militarily.
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TigerNet Icon [153127]
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It's going to be fine, because groceries are about to be half price.
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Jan 15, 2025, 12:56 PM
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Behold, the Power of Trump.
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All-Time Great [90838]
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Plus cheaper houses AND lower interest rates, cheaper gas, cheaper insurance
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Jan 15, 2025, 2:21 PM
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ALL THE THINGS IN SIX MONTHS!
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CU Medallion [20816]
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And all because we are going to drill baby drill***
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Jan 15, 2025, 5:46 PM
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Top TigerNet [30276]
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wasn't / isn't it a shift from income tax to a consumption tax?
Jan 15, 2025, 12:57 PM
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or is the running theory / guess that tariffs takes over for that revenue stream?
what little I've read and seen, the proposed shift in US revenue stream is going towards a consumption / fair tax vs income. did I get got by the simulation? could be my echo chamber I guess.
I think the biggest "pro" (in my view) of tariffs that was written in an Op Ed by Bessent that I posted here w/ basically zero engagement lol:
https://www.tigernet.com/clemson-forum/message/scott-bessent-35918276
I have felt the tariff substitute for income tax wouldn't pencil. Combination of both (tariffs and consumption tax) would, in addition to ancillary benefits of putting our thumb on the scale to balance trade with nefarious governments.
None of this matters if they don't substantially trim the budget. The latest "proposal" I saw floated around by Red Teamers on the hill is a heaping pile of wet tampons. Something like $5T in 10 years? Pork Chop defense soft and completely unacceptable.
Need to get $2T - $3T off annual budgets, and then balance it (reduction in ~$4T - $6T / year). THEN, you won't need to worry about labor, b/c we'll have us a good old fashioned deflationary event. THEN, we get some blood in the streets. And THEN, we can start making some real money.
He won't do it, but that's what I want.
I was going to post about it Monday, but the board was consumed with fire conspiracies and other irrelevant ########.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [108925]
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A consumption tax is not the same as tariffs.
Jan 15, 2025, 1:36 PM
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GDP is what, $27 trillion? You can tack on a universal sales tax (consumption) tax of 17-18% on everything and we cover expenses, and then some.
Trump specifically said replacing income tax with tariffs (like we did before financing WW2, nukes, the Cold War, and lunar missions) and that doesn't math out, even if he shaves $2T off spending.
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Top TigerNet [30276]
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we're saying the same thing
Jan 15, 2025, 2:19 PM
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I guess I misunderstood the strategy.
Obviously a consumption tax is not the same as tariffs...
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [108925]
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Are you suggesting mixing and matching the two?
Jan 15, 2025, 3:54 PM
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That could work.
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Top TigerNet [30276]
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I think that's the only thing that would remotely pencil
Jan 15, 2025, 4:08 PM
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and that would still require substantial Opex cuts.
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Clemson Conqueror [11398]
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Top TigerNet [30276]
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I'll always be honest with you guys, and I'll likely get flamed for this
Jan 15, 2025, 2:55 PM
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but I couldn't give less of a ####.
Spend less than you make. Deal pencils, every time.
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Clemson Conqueror [11398]
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Oh, I'm with you there. At least everyone would get to choose what they'll get
Jan 15, 2025, 5:12 PM
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taxed on.
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Dynasty Maker [3265]
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National Champion [7790]
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Re: Putting this in politics. Tweet got me thinking.
Jan 15, 2025, 1:39 PM
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I'm guessing most of this tariff talk is just posturing to receive political and or trade concessions. I do agree it'd be a giant cluster to implement on the level you discuss but that's not happening even if Trump was dead set on it. In 2 years the Dems most likely take back the House then its two years of impeachment and gridlock so two years isn't enough time for him to even get this started much less see it through to completion.
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Ring of Honor [22382]
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First RA for thinking on the Politics Board
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Jan 15, 2025, 1:48 PM
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Second just talked with my Financial Advisor today, the things that you and others have described are creating uncertainty in the business community and in the markets. Few want to see Trump’s extreme campaign promises come to fruition.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [108925]
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Markets up 700+ today.
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Jan 15, 2025, 2:19 PM
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Headline CPI rose, while core dropped. We're talking like .1% here, meeting expectations for headline, and -.1% core, a slight beat. And the markets jump 700 points, mainly on the core reading, even though headline increase increases odds of a fed rate hike. ANYWAY....
Wife and I did a refi in November of 2021 for the lowest rate the closing attorney had ever closed at 2.125%. Now I expect most people on here remember inflation as a 2022 thing. NOPE. For the life of me I can't understand it. From January of 2021 until November, when mortgage rates bottomed out, INFLATION (CPI) went from 1.4% to 7%!!!! SAME period, mortgage rates were steady, from 2.77% in 1/2021 to 2.98% in 11/2021. The DJIA ROSE from 31,100 to 36,300 during this same January to November time period.
One would THINK that when inflation rises from 1.4% to 7% over just 11 months, that MIGHT make the news. That MIGHT make lenders consider raising rates? That MIGHT cause the Fed to at least mention inflation. NOPE. You can look at Google trends, searches for inflation were low until early 2022. The data was all right there, and totally ignored. And here we are watching every tenth of a percent change........
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Game Day Hero [4320]
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Re: Markets up 700+ today.
Jan 15, 2025, 2:33 PM
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I too did a refi, not as good as you but still sub 3% in 2021. I could not actually believe the bank (regular brick and mortar lender) was willing to do it…but I wasn’t gonna look a gift horse in the mouth.
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Top TigerNet [30276]
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sub 3% gang
Jan 15, 2025, 2:54 PM
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I feel like I'm everything I hate about boomers lol
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [108925]
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I told the lawyer they would lose on this refi.
Jan 15, 2025, 3:26 PM
[ in reply to Re: Markets up 700+ today. ] |
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Lawyer laughed, and agreed. He got his, we got ours, and somehow the bank isn't getting screwed?
This was a 15yr instrument. Every month, since we did the refi, inflation has not dropped below our interest rate. If I'm buying mortgages or MBS, I'm balking at this.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [108925]
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Top TigerNet [30276]
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Bro
Jan 16, 2025, 8:57 PM
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Feds already stepped in and backstopped these bonds. They're not going to just magically stop.
The CMBS are even worse ...
For those paying attention the bond market is going ham
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Top TigerNet [30276]
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this will help your google search....
Jan 15, 2025, 3:12 PM
[ in reply to Markets up 700+ today. ] |
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Transitory Inflation
something else happened in January 2021...might've impacted the coverage a wee bit too.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [108925]
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Re: this will help your google search....
Jan 15, 2025, 3:34 PM
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Who the #### believed it would be transitory? I know Yellen or whoever said that, and the Fed said that. I wasn't buying it, because I knew why it happened. The Fed knew. If I knew, they did.
Inflation spiked to 33% in Sri Lanka, and they had a revolution. It was worldwide. Anyone who bought the covid stimulus garbage wasn't following news around the world. My $2,000 in stimulus didn't cause 33% inflation in Sri Lanka, or in the UK, or in Israel, or in Russia (heck we don't even trade much with Russia, even then). The inflation was worst in labor-poor nations, and was lowest (still rose) in labor-rich nations. Remember the labor shortages, yeah they were also worldwide, most severe in labor poor countries. But even India and China had labor shortages.
Labor is always the forgotten red-headed stepchild in finance.
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Dynasty Maker [3265]
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Top TigerNet [30276]
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Dynasty Maker [3265]
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Actually, I did.***
Jan 19, 2025, 3:00 PM
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Paw Master [16721]
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I have always found your doom & gloom posts about illegal immigration to be a
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Jan 15, 2025, 1:56 PM
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bit overstated. Mostly because I don’t choose to take the most extreme interpretation of Trump’s rhetoric and then apply the most dire analysis.
Maybe I’m wrong and maybe most people want every immigrant or relative of an immigrant to be thrown in a bottomless pit and then put a giant iron dome around the country. But I doubt it. The issue is, and has always been, about control. We must control the borders, and violation of our laws (illegal immigration) should not be met with an opportunity for citizenship and lies about how we won’t let it happen again.
So if we really have millions of illegal immigrants…they gotta go. Mexico needs to understand that we won’t tolerate their red carpet treatment and illegal immigrants need to understand that we are a country of laws and borders like any other country.
Once we TRULY have that under control, speaking just for myself, I have no issue with bringing in immigrant workers as needed, in a controlled, legal manner.
And I would be very supportive of coupling these policies with American support for South and Central American countries to control their drug and crime problems and improve their economies. It was the one time I can recall that I was very hopeful about a Biden policy…when he appointed Harris as the Border Czar and they made a big deal about how she was going to these countries and discussing root causes. Of course, we saw how that went.
Same goes for his tax policy comments. I feel confident he won’t be eliminating the income tax and leaving us with trillions more in debt annually. I don’t know what the answer is but certainly I applaud almost all budget cuts and I am happy with tax reductions…lets see what can be accomplished responsibly.
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Tiger Titan [48916]
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Re: I have always found your doom & gloom posts about illegal immigration to be a
Jan 15, 2025, 3:20 PM
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And I would be very supportive of coupling these policies with American support for South and Central American countries to control their drug and crime problems and improve their economies.
I wouldn't count on this part; the previous Trump admin infamously abandoned those nations so badly that China swooped in with many of them.
You're correct that we need control and order, but not at the cost of removing 100ks or millions of immigrants and wrecking our economy, particularly the agriculture industry. I know that it sucks we're at this point, but the toothpaste is out of the tube. We have to work on a way to control the border, get rid of the useless illegals like gang members and such, but find a way to sustain with the productive ones we have.
I also don't like the potential zealousness of Trump's plans. If just one single legal immigrant gets wrongly sent out of our nation, then the idea was a failure.
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Paw Master [16721]
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Re: I have always found your doom & gloom posts about illegal immigration to be a
Jan 15, 2025, 9:13 PM
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No I don’t expect Trump to reach out to Latin America either.
All valid points except the fear of damage to the economy is used by status quo supporters to prevent any action. It’s gotta stop. We can’t have this lack of control. I have faith, not necessarily that we will find the right and proper balance, but that we can weather the storm if we go “overboard” and that course correction wouldn’t be that hard. We just need to take action.
And sure, you might think it would be a catastrophe if a legal resident was deported, but really you’re just describing the plot of “Born in East L.A.”, and that was actually pretty funny.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [108925]
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I will take Trump at his word, until he proves himself a liar.
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Jan 15, 2025, 3:22 PM
[ in reply to I have always found your doom & gloom posts about illegal immigration to be a ] |
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The issue isn't control.
It's LABOR. It's deflation. It's cheap debt. It's a serviceable national debt. It's a growing economy underwritten on ever cheapening debt, facilitated by excess labor to meet excess demand.
Americans buy more stuff, consume more stuff, than we have the labor (domestically) to produce. The outlets for that are two, immigrant labor, and imports.
This is why no "party" has stopped the problem of illegal immigration, because it is a solution to grow an economy beyond the labor it has among citizens. Americans are the world's largest consumers. We have 330 million people, but consume 9 times as much as the entire continent of Africa, with 1.5 billion people. We consume 4.5 times the mount of the continent of Africa, and the country of India, combined, with over 3 BILLION PEOPLE. 300 million Americans consume more than 3 BILLION other people.
You don't do this without immigrants, and imports.
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Heisman Winner [81180]
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We dont need mass amounts of people to produce goods anymore,
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Jan 15, 2025, 4:05 PM
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It’s not the 1900’s. Our ports and automaker unions fight automation for this very reason, the argument you’re trying to make is antiquated. Given lowering birth rates across the world, all we’re doing is handicapping ourselves for the future by relying on cheap immigrant labor.
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Top TigerNet [30276]
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We're bout to be so rich dude***
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Jan 16, 2025, 8:59 PM
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TigerNet Champion [121421]
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Trump is going to sign an EO
Jan 15, 2025, 2:09 PM
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making "Urban Camping" aka homelessness a crime.
Now this me this is me speculating, but when he says he is going to build housing on Public land, he is talking about prisons, deportation centers, and labor camps. In true fascist form, it would not be hard to imagine a situation where illegal labor is replaced by prison labor. It is not like we do not already do this, but we would ramp up the scope and scale of this under his administration, which would essentially amount to slavery.
Maybe I am being overly cynical here, but it would seem the obvious solution to supplanting "illegal" labor with forced prison labor.
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TigerNet Elite [71494]
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Effin lol a hundred times***
Jan 16, 2025, 6:44 PM
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All-Time Great [90838]
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Its OK, they'll all be coming back with H1B visas
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Jan 15, 2025, 2:22 PM
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because EFF YOUR FACE ELON NEEDS CHEAP ENGINEERS
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Valley Legend [12824]
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Re: Putting this in politics. Tweet got me thinking.
Jan 15, 2025, 3:02 PM
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if you are working a job, i dont think the boogerman is going to be looking for you
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Clemson Icon [27453]
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Re: Putting this in politics. Tweet got me thinking.
Jan 15, 2025, 5:26 PM
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Out of those 420k unemployed. Probably 400k or whatever are working under the table.
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Game Changer [2034]
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None of his campaign promises are ever thought through,
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Jan 15, 2025, 9:44 PM
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he comes up with them off the cuff at his rallies. Just like the Mexico is going to pay for a wall promise. He has no grasp of the implications of his policies, he just wants short sound bites that appeal to his uneducated simpleton base.
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Dynasty Maker [3265]
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We should consider ourselves extremely lucky...
Jan 16, 2025, 8:50 AM
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if we get to 2029, and he hasn't done much in the way of his economic promises.
The tariffs not only will be inflationary, they will also de-stabilize the world, as countries start going unilateral. The world trade regime that we - the US - set up after WW2 contributed to world stability and better relations between nations.
Massive deportations will be inflationary to say the least. On top of that, he will use the threat of deportations to punish politicians and states that he hates (Newsom & California, for instance).
I expect him to extend his tax cuts, which will drive up the deficit.
I feel fairly certain that the GOP will do another attack on the ACA, and maybe medicaid more broadly.
Again, if we get to 2029, and he hasn't done much of the above, we should consider ourselves lucky.
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Clemson Icon [27453]
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Re: We should consider ourselves extremely lucky...
Jan 16, 2025, 6:42 PM
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That deportation thing won't happen. They won't cooperate in certain states.
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