Topic: DHS/HHS report predicts 3000 deaths/day by early June

Replies: 25 Last Post: May 5, 2020, 2:34 PM by: tiger_swimmer®

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Replies: 25

JD404

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DHS/HHS report predicts 3000 deaths/day by early June

[2]
Posted: May 4, 2020, 2:18 PM

and 200,000 new cases/day

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/coronavirus-trump-administration-projects-3000-deaths-per-day-by-june.html

Coronavirus deaths projected to hit 3,000 per day by June, internal Trump administration analysis says

President Donald Trump said on Fox News that the U.S. death toll from Covid-19 could reach 100,000.

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JD404

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Here's a direct link to the report

[1]
Posted: May 4, 2020, 2:21 PM

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6926-mayhhsbriefing/af7319f4a55fd0ce5dc9/optimized/full.pdf

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JD404

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538 guy is skeptical

Posted: May 4, 2020, 2:27 PM

Projecting ~200K new detected cases each day **by the end of the month** from a current baseline of ~30K is also a LOT, even with quite pessimistic assumptions. I would encourage some caution with taking these at face value.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 4, 2020

<###### async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8">

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tigerdave2®

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True, but 538 also predicted 71% Hillary would win

[1]
Posted: May 4, 2020, 4:26 PM

These statistics so unpredictable

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BengalBilly

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Yeah, but those polls were polling 70%

[1]
Posted: May 4, 2020, 11:05 PM

democrats.

These "polls" are polling 100% dead people.

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Carlsbad®

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Re: DHS/HHS report predicts 3000 deaths/day by early June

[2]
Posted: May 4, 2020, 2:34 PM

That doesnt sound that bad on the surface to me, until I think about how most will be over 65. That will chaos for them.

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tiger_swimmer®

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Re: DHS/HHS report predicts 3000 deaths/day by early June

[2]
Posted: May 4, 2020, 2:40 PM

Nana. You’re talking about my Nana.

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DirtyTiger2000

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Re: DHS/HHS report predicts 3000 deaths/day by early June

[1]
Posted: May 4, 2020, 2:36 PM

Gtfoh

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tiger_swimmer®

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Re: DHS/HHS report predicts 3000 deaths/day by early June

emoji_events [5]
Posted: May 4, 2020, 2:39 PM

1A64D0CB-1A83-4469-947C-392AF7AAE287.png(45.5 K)

I like how the U. of Washington IHME model keeps predicting the a huge swell of deaths in Sweden that never comes. They just keep sliding the hump to the right.

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JD404

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Tried to TU but it looks like I'm on your ignore list***

[1]
Posted: May 4, 2020, 2:50 PM

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lovingit®

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If you could, please get on my ignore list too.

[1]
Posted: May 4, 2020, 2:56 PM

TIA!

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JD404

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Check your tmale***

[1]
Posted: May 4, 2020, 3:08 PM

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tigerrag86

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Re: DHS/HHS report predicts 3000 deaths/day by early June

Posted: May 4, 2020, 7:56 PM

That's not what it looks like. Check again

https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore hospital bed use, need for intensive care beds, and ventilator use due to COVID-19 based on projected deaths

They have the same deaths/capita as US, and are projected to be ~2.5x of US by August. Strange, you'd think that allowing bars and restaurants to stay open would've been a great idea

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tiger_swimmer®

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Re: DHS/HHS report predicts 3000 deaths/day by early June

[1]
Posted: May 5, 2020, 2:28 PM

At any rate, good job guys. They went from predicting a peak of 500 deaths a day down to less than 150. I trust these guys. It really looks like they know what they are doing. I wonder what their graphs will say tomorrow.

Golf clap.

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Calhoun2

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Re: DHS/HHS report predicts 3000 deaths/day by early June

emoji_events [5]
Posted: May 4, 2020, 2:54 PM

So you’re saying the country hid in their homes for 6 weeks with zero benefit and great cost to the economy without flattening the curve? Now a second wave will come and get more people who were already pretty susceptible to dying by the end of the year anyway? I’m guessing the solution is stay inside for 6 more months until the new flu season starts up. Something doesn’t seem right about that...

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lovingit®

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There is something wrong with your horse. I can’t quite

emoji_events [5]
Posted: May 4, 2020, 2:56 PM

Put my finger on it . . .

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MyfavOrange®

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You can't put your two fingers on the fact that he is

[4]
Posted: May 4, 2020, 3:05 PM

missing two of his legs?

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TigerOffSite

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Looks pretty fast though!***

Posted: May 4, 2020, 10:51 PM

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DirtyTiger2000

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Re: There is something wrong with your horse. I can’t quite

[3]
Posted: May 4, 2020, 3:06 PM

Bo that horse is one bad mf.

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Salty55®

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Re: There is something wrong with your horse. I can’t quite

[1]
Posted: May 4, 2020, 5:07 PM

It's short, like cutigerbob®..and apparently got in the way of Bob's scythe, too!

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tigerrag86

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Re: DHS/HHS report predicts 3000 deaths/day by early June

Posted: May 4, 2020, 7:53 PM

The second wave is coming due to states relaxing social distancing measures before the curve has been downward for 2 weeks. IHME is now accounting for that

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MyfavOrange®

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