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CU Guru [1508]
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Can someone explain to me what the end goal of the economic policy is? Serious
Mar 29, 2025, 8:04 AM
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question from a numbers nerd (and a right leaning one)...
The basic ingredients now:
1) Sticky Inflation as a result (mostly) of high housing costs due to undersupply.
2) Low unemployment and currently strong labor market.
3) Tariffs are not yet fully in place by any country.
4) Oil/Gas producers do not want to drill, baby, drill because they want prices to stay up.
5) Labor is being deported. Of course, fired fed workers may help make up some differences.
6) Consumer confidence is trending down.
7) Consumer delinquencies are trending up.
SO....IF the goal is to bring back US manufacturing, who fills those jobs? Almost certainly, goods made in America will cost more. Stuff from outside America will cost more.
Please someone explain how this takes us to a golden age through what I see as a naive and archaic strategy.
Seems to me Trump would be better served to first correct the housing issue by using his strong arm tactics with local jurisdictions that are prohibiting or limiting housing development. Get the housing supply back up to a "normal" level. This is an almost surefire way to bring down folks' monthly expenditures.
Would appreciate some discussion.
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Clemson Icon [24976]
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Re: Can someone explain to me what the end goal of the economic policy is? Serious
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Mar 29, 2025, 8:08 AM
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To bring back all of the factory jobs that will end up being done by robots anyway.
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Game Changer [1923]
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The thing you should know about all of this is that
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Mar 29, 2025, 10:00 AM
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there is no well thought out strategic plan. Mentally, Trump is off the reservation. All of these moves, they are not thought through and evaluated with all of the implications. There’s no MAGA economic nerds doing the math and saying yep, this will lead to a better economy. All of these decisions are made on a whim by an emotional narcissist based on how he is feeling in the moment, and what grievance he is focused on that hour.
On top of that, as a narcissist, Trump does not care one bit about anyone but himself and therefore is not focused on improving the economic situation of average Americans. He was elected because people wanted him to improve their cost of living. The first two months in office he has been focused on everything except that and has worked to exacerbate the issue.
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Ring of Honor [22078]
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April 2 is either Liberation Day or Trump Recession Day
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Mar 29, 2025, 10:07 AM
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Watch the Markets _ and remember it’s easier to keep the car on the road than pulling it out of the ditch.
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Paw Master [17140]
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Bring the jobs back, cut the welfare. People will go to work when hungry.***
Mar 29, 2025, 10:11 AM
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Clemson Icon [24976]
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Re: Bring the jobs back, cut the welfare. People will go to work when hungry.***
Mar 29, 2025, 10:14 AM
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Those jobs will be automated and those people in the factory days will be a thing of the past at one point in the non so distant future.
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Ring of Honor [22078]
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Yep labor intensity in manufacturing will not be what it was in the 50s - 70s***
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Mar 29, 2025, 10:23 AM
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Paw Master [17140]
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CU Guru [1508]
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Final assembly is great, but I don't think we want the "dirty" jobs of
Mar 29, 2025, 10:52 AM
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casting, raw material refinement, etc. Maybe we do, but unless environmental regulations go out the window (I know it's on the table), our made in the USA goods are gonna be expensive.
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Clemson Icon [24976]
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [108197]
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Associate AD [1095]
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Re: Ummm......whatever you say. Sounds real nice.
Mar 29, 2025, 1:35 PM
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I had forgotten that Ford sold Volvo to the Chinese during the great recession, part of how they stayed solvent when GM filed for bankruptcy.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [108197]
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Charleston saw a HUGE influx during covid.
Mar 29, 2025, 1:40 PM
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Whole state really, but especially Charleston and MYB areas.
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All-Time Great [88604]
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Paw Master [17140]
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Ah. I didn't realize all the new people were unemployed.***
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Mar 29, 2025, 5:42 PM
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All-Time Great [88604]
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Literally irrelevant to what you said.
Mar 29, 2025, 11:02 PM
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Jesus you’re either one of the dumbest posters or just willfully ignorant on this board.
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Ultimate Tiger [34913]
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Not sure that's really disproving the impact of new manufacturing...
Mar 29, 2025, 5:26 PM
[ in reply to Ummm......whatever you say. Sounds real nice. ] |
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The employed labor force in Charleston area has grown at 3 times national average. Traffic patterns aren't also a direct relation to total population change...it depends what that population does during the day. Also, those factories had increasing hiring well after they initially opened.
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110%er [3880]
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Re: Crazy how many more humans are on the road in CHS after Boeing and Volvo
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Mar 29, 2025, 2:20 PM
[ in reply to Crazy how many more humans are on the road in CHS after Boeing and Volvo ] |
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That’s why I got my mechatronics associates from tri county. Robots always need maintenance and troubleshooting. I’m always busy at my job that is heavily automated yet still employees thousands of people.
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CU Guru [1508]
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This seems rational, but is it? No backup here, but IMO those on the sidelines
Mar 29, 2025, 10:43 AM
[ in reply to Bring the jobs back, cut the welfare. People will go to work when hungry.*** ] |
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are either:
1) Not really on the sidelines - they are gig workers.
2) Raising kids and electing not to work.
3) Suckling off the govt teat.
The ones that you want off welfare (group 3) are the ones that are the least hireable.
And I haven't heard a peep about welfare reform.
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Valley Legend [12222]
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Ultimate Tiger [34913]
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There are PLENTY of open manufacturing jobs now...
Mar 29, 2025, 5:34 PM
[ in reply to Bring the jobs back, cut the welfare. People will go to work when hungry.*** ] |
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albeit regional. Welfare is not the reason these jobs are remaining open. There aren't enough qualified folks in the manufacturing job pool in many areas.
I say this as someone who runs a manufacturing factory and have gotten involved in this issue one a local and industry level.
We have a societal and educational alignment issue and that HAS to be corrected before we can drastically expand manufacturing in this country.
The fact of the matter is that President Trump doesn't understand the issue and has no really plan to fix it. He needs to lead on the issue and that's not nearly as easily and sexy as "making deals" with tariffs and abusing the power of the executive. The sad thing is is that both sides of the isle would get behind a real plan.
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Clemson Icon [25942]
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Re: Can someone explain to me what the end goal of the economic policy is? Serious
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Mar 29, 2025, 10:39 AM
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Each of those require more analysis than a message board can do, but just off the top of my head:
1. Is caused by increase in money supply. We have seen a 25% devaluation of the currency since 2020, and imo we have about 10% left to go to absorb the money supply increase of 2020, so a couple more years at 3%-ish.
2. Good. We still have many who left the labor pool in covid.
3. Not sure. My hope is that the part of it that is aimed at equalizing tariffs gets worked out soon.
4. That is not historically true.
5. Not so far. For all the deportation talk, there is not yet a general round up of non criminal illegals. Should that happen, previous mass deportations (Clinton, Obama) caused no labor issues.
You left out the fact that last year we spent 40% more money than we took in, on top of already unsustainable debt. Because that has to be fixed now, not later, cleaning it up will not be pretty, and temporary mistakes will be made, but it cant be put off. Of all economic factors, this is the most important immediate issue. I'm glad to see an admin doing something.
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CU Guru [1508]
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Thanks. I agree they are doing something, but will tariff revenues be greater
Mar 29, 2025, 10:48 AM
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than tax revenues from an increased GDP that is projected to fall? There are rumblings of trying to reduce mandatory payouts (SS, VA, etc), but that's going to be a stretch. With tax cuts coming (good for me), I don't see how their "something" is going to work if the goal is to pay down the debt. We'll see.
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Clemson Icon [25942]
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Re: Thanks. I agree they are doing something, but will tariff revenues be greater
Mar 29, 2025, 11:01 AM
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Lets first find the 2 Trillion needed to balance the budget. Do that, dont go over budget any more, and the debt pays off as it matures, hopefully in gradual steps as we can afford it.
Good thing 'rumblings' are not policy. And payouts have been reduced before (increasing the retirement age), which requires Congress, if I'm not mistaken. If something like another increase in retirement age is necessary, need to wait for a Dem admin so everybody wont have a cow.
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Clemson Icon [25942]
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Re: Thanks. I agree they are doing something, but will tariff revenues be greater
Mar 29, 2025, 11:42 AM
[ in reply to Thanks. I agree they are doing something, but will tariff revenues be greater ] |
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The housing thing is interesting. We need a definition of "affordable". Every house standing or being built has an owner, or soon will, so they are affordable. I think we're talking about young people buying a first house, and people making $15/hour. Two people making $25/ hour each can afford a house.
I dont know how they fit together, but young people seem less inclined to buy, regardless of price. Our young adult daughter could, with a little help, which we have offered, buy a house. Wont. Prefers renting. This seems to be a trend in that age group. I wonder if the market for the 200k-ish house is an unfulfilled as media claims. The market does provide what people will buy.
[Many years back, I was in high school, there was a shortage of some item due to transport issues. I mentioned some dissatisfaction with it. Dad said, "Dont worry. Some guy named Goldstein is right now figuring out how to distribute it. We'll have it pretty soon." A rabbi walks into a bar. He bought it. Ha. If the Hamas thing doesn't work out, we'll take all the Jews who want to come. Imagine that ... an influx of self sufficient minded Jews coupled with a new hardworking work force. Rock and roll.]
About inflation, i know the money-policy-source-of-inflation idea gets overlooked now by some, though Friedman won a Nobel defending it. But in this case, one can consider this: If monetary policy in 2020 didnt cause inflation, how is it that monetary policy is what is bringing it down? I do get irritated at "but inflation was global". Like inflation is a virus. Everybody was printing money, is what it was. Had we not, we would not have had the inflation we did.
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Game Changer [1923]
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Associate AD [1095]
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Re: The goal is not to pay down the debt. MAGA wants
Mar 29, 2025, 1:38 PM
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The projections are actually 10-20 trillion.
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Ring of Honor [22078]
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4)Demand historically rises which kept prices high and good margins for Big Oil
Mar 29, 2025, 1:44 PM
[ in reply to Re: Can someone explain to me what the end goal of the economic policy is? Serious ] |
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Without increasing demand, increasing supply will drive prices down and reduce margins on existing wells _ not in best interest of Big Oil profits. Read numerous articles that oil companies do not want prices lower than $60 / barrel. Profits are good at $80 / barrel…
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Campus Hero [14094]
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To make Trump and his cronies wealthier by any means necessary***
Mar 29, 2025, 10:32 AM
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TigerNet Champion [121013]
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Re: Can someone explain to me what the end goal of the economic policy is? Serious
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Mar 29, 2025, 10:33 AM
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We had a candidate campaigning on building 4 million affordable homes, but instead, we chose the guy who is cutting taxes on the ultra-wealthy and using austirtity measures to pay for it. I mean it was clear as day on the campaign trail, but here we are.
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CU Guru [1508]
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BUT....chicks with weiners.
Mar 29, 2025, 10:49 AM
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weird.
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TigerNet Champion [121013]
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Re: BUT....chicks with weiners.
Mar 29, 2025, 10:58 AM
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"they're eating the cats, they are eating the dogs", we are getting what we deserve.
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Paw Master [17140]
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Campus Hero [14094]
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MAGA idiots can hate brown folks without the gubment; why havent y
Mar 29, 2025, 12:45 PM
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Oh wait you guys are really good at that on your own,
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Clemson Icon [24976]
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Paw Master [17140]
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How many illegals were deported since Jan that were picking lettuce?***
Mar 29, 2025, 11:04 AM
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Campus Hero [14094]
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4,747***
Mar 29, 2025, 12:48 PM
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Orange Blooded [2451]
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Re: Can someone explain to me what the end goal of the economic policy is? Serious
Mar 29, 2025, 2:31 PM
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At best trump and his team are deploying an experiment that may or may not work for some segments of American society.
It certainly isn’t going to work well for all / most segments. Trump tells us that he wants to support his supporters and discard folks that didn’t support him.
At worst his policies result in smoot Hawley type of impacts and general economic disaster for good chunks of America.
But don’t be fooled. Trump and his oligarchs will be just fine. There is no trail w crypto so the fleecing that has started wil continue to get tune of hundreds of billions.
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Clemson Icon [24719]
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We were headed to lower interest rates to increase the inventory of homes
Mar 29, 2025, 5:17 PM
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and slow the rise of home prices, but fear of Trump Tariff Inflation caused mortgage rates to remain high even though the Fed started cutting rates in October. People with low rate mortgages don't want to sell and buy and a new home at double the interest rate.
Now, with Trump Tariff Inflation a fact of life, we are experiencing stagflation which leaves the Fed no options. Lowering interest rates to stimulate a stagnating economy only spurs greater inflation.
I think the end goal of the Trump Tariffs is to reduce/eliminate progressive income tax rates at the upper income levels through lies and deception while pushing the tax burden further down the income scale and exploding deficits and debt.
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