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TigerNet GOAT [∞]
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ESPN outlook sheds doubt on two-bid ACC
Dec 6, 2024, 9:44 AM
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Tuesday's CFP rankings eliminated Miami. Could a Clemson win do the same for a potential 11-2 SMU?
In his conference championship preview, ESPN's Bill Connelly is doubtful SMU could survive the defeat:
Some good news for SMU: Over the past 10 years, only 16 of the 45 ranked teams that lost a power conference title game fell by more than two spots. The committee doesn't tend to punish teams much for losing title games.
Some bad news: The committee does punish favorites who lose. Of these 45 teams, 10 lost as favorites, and those teams fell by an average of 4.1 spots. SMU is a 2.5-point favorite Saturday night.
More bad news: Two weeks ago, when Alabama had two losses and SMU had one, Bama ranked six spots ahead of SMU in the CFP. Obviously Bama's third loss (24-3 to Oklahoma) was worse than SMU's hypothetical second loss would be, (unless Clemson wins in a massive blowout), but the odds are solid that, as unfair as it may be that the Mustangs had to play a 13th game to Bama's 12 -- and as foreboding as it might feel to the future of conference title games if it were to happen -- Bama gets in over a two-loss SMU.
That said, his SP+ model favors the Mustangs to clinch a bid on Saturday. He says the numbers point to the big matchup being SMU's offense vs. Clemson's defense:
Since Week 4, when Kevin Jennings took over for a struggling Preston Stone as SMU's starting QB, the Mustangs' offense has produced great and terrible moments. They're seventh in yards per successful play but 45th in success rate. They've gained 20-plus yards 8.2% of the time (20th) but turned the ball over 2.3% (80th). They're second in yards per dropback (9.1) but 53rd in interception rate (2.4%). Clemson's aggression can backfire, but the Tigers are 12th in turnovers forced and 21st in INT rate. Unless Clemson suddenly rips off a lot of big plays on offense, this game will likely come down to how many mistakes SMU's offense makes and how costly they are. We probably know how costly an SMU loss would be.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/42796200/college-football-conference-championship-preview-penn-state-oregon-texas-georgia-clemson-smu ($)
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Paw Warrior [4827]
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Re: ESPN outlook sheds doubt on two-bid ACC
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Dec 6, 2024, 9:46 AM
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If the ACC commissioner had a set he'd get ahead of this now before the Game.
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Commissioner [1216]
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Re: ESPN outlook sheds doubt on two-bid ACC
Dec 6, 2024, 9:54 AM
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If SMU loses, they are out.
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All-TigerNet [5837]
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Re: ESPN outlook sheds doubt on two-bid ACC
Dec 6, 2024, 10:01 AM
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who cares what Disney says?
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Gridiron Giant [15116]
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More bad news for SMU: The whole process is corrupt.***
Dec 6, 2024, 10:38 AM
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Ring of Honor [22877]
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Re: ESPN outlook sheds doubt on two-bid ACC
Dec 6, 2024, 10:42 AM
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That’s ok, we only need one…
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National Champion [8079]
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Clemson beats SMU 38-17, SMU is out of CFP...but
Dec 6, 2024, 10:53 AM
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Clemson 27 SMU 24...they have a shot, and "will" get into CFP
The game will need/have to be close in order for SMU to make it when they lose.
Alabama is sitting at home, Ole Miss sitting at home, Coots sitting at home, Mizzou sitting at home....not games means they cannot improve their own position based of their own merit.
SMU does have a say and if the game is competitive, close throughout and at the end with Clemson coming out on top, ACC "will" get 2 teams in
Go Tigers, beat SMU!!
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Commissioner [1213]
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I think that is the likely scenario... although I think there is a reason Warde
Dec 6, 2024, 10:59 AM
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said that SMU could fall below Alabama with a loss. I am not convinced a "close loss" gets them in. When they are left out, all hail will break lose for championship games next year.
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Game Changer [1880]
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The problem is using statistics to determine likely winners is ...
Dec 6, 2024, 11:03 AM
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Statistics sometimes lie. I have seen offensive and defensive statistics being brought up as an indicator of which team may be more likely to win. However, we all know our defensive statistics are damaged by all the trash points and yards given up in the second half of all our blowout wins. Those players that gave up all of that won't be playing Saturday night. The defense that played the first half will be the one that SMU gets to see. Our defense only gave up 17 points to the Gamechickens. That's more representative of our true defensive talent.
I believe if our offense can put up 21 or more, we win. The defense will create a few turnovers. We just have to capitalize on them.
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TigerNet Elite [70099]
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Of course they do!***
Dec 6, 2024, 11:06 AM
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Tiger Spirit [9451]
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Re: ESPN outlook sheds doubt on two-bid ACC
Dec 6, 2024, 11:11 AM
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Bill Connelly is another SEC mouthpiece whose job is to coerce the public into thinking we all actually should want to see 4 SEC teams rather than 3.
Either way, Clemson for the win! Go Tigers!
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