Someone explain this to me like Im 5. Flow?

Clemsonfan1851 · 2025-05-13T13:29:17.827Z

Dow Jones Falls After Surprise CPI Inflation Data; Early Tuesday, the Labor Department's consumer price index, or CPI, rose 0.2% on the month, with an annual increase of 2.3%. That was cooler than the expected 0.3% monthly rise and 2.4% annual increase. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, climbed 0.2% in April, with a year-over-year increase of 2.8%. It was anticipated to rise 0.3% on the month with a year-over-year increase of 2.8%, according to Econoday. How is this not good news?

Lowest inflation rate in 4 years.

Re: Someone explain this to me like Im 5. Flow?

I think it is positive CPI data...

We are heading into a recession. And that's a good thing and a bad thing

depending on your take.

Bad because people spend less, jobs are lost, and the economy declines. BUT, a good thing because that creates deflationary pressure, HOPEFULLY forcing the fed to lower rates, so more cheap debt so the economy grows, and things like housing can better sort itself out with refi's and selling happening once again.

But the cluster #### monkey wrench Trump tossed at everyone with his tariffs, that will be a wildcard, until the numbers show the impacts. That STARTS next month. And will fully show by August to September.

Many Americans (myself) and companies, bought extra imported items just before the tariffs, to have supply longer, and cheaper. That could be the blip we see in deflation happening as well, as supply is abnormally high. Our trade deficit spiked to an alltime record right before Trump's tariffs, and that was people buying excess. Now that the #### has hit the fan, you have 1-2 months for the supply chain to run through, then another month or two for the excess pre-purchased supply to be used up. So a good 3-4 months before we know where we stand, and even then, no one knows where we stand with Trump running the show, and this is the dollar/treasuries issue.

To date I think the Treasury has collected (ultimately FROM AMERICANS) around $60 billion from tariffs. Only $2,140,000,000,000 more to go for tariffs to replace our income tax, fwiw. Last month we collected $16 billion in tariffs. On that pace that's $192 billion a year, again getting close to the $2.2 trillion we need to end the income tax.

Re: Someone explain this to me like Im 5. Flow?

RememberTheDanny

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Re: it's interesting how you view the world...

May 13, 2025, 11:50 AM

People who disagree with tariffs are not “kooks.”

Rather, the Trump tariff haters are zeroed in on a single facet (the most obvious one) of economic consequence. Taken alone, tariffs are inflationary, albeit as a single ‘higher price’ event.

What annoys me is that the tariff naysayers haven’t figured out any of the other aspects of the Trump tariff program. Ignored (undoubtedly, many are ignoring the following other factors because of political hatred of Trump … for reasons unrelated to his tariff program) facets are as follows; this is not a comprehensive list.

In many cases, the Trump tariffs are retaliatory in part. Many foreign countries had high tariffs on American goods, while America had zero / low tariffs on their goods. In this case, the Trump tariff threat has reduced the economic distortion of one sided tariffs.

In some cases, tariffs are being used as threats (that could become real) to get conduit countries for getting illegal drugs into America. Those ‘conduit countries’ will suffer economically if they don’t get serious about arresting 5heir drug running cartels / criminals.

In some cases, the tariff threat is a form of blackmail; multinational companies HQ’d in countries such as Japan, Tauwan, and Germany are hedging their bets by making major investments in American manufacturing operations. This, of course, will be a windfall as far as creation of high quality new jobs for Americans.

The aspects which, IMO, Trump admin didn’t understand was the potential for enormous disruption in the supply chain for domestic manufacturers. The good news is that Trump, being a private sector guy, quickly understood the pleadings from executives of American manufacturing companies; the sudden ‘temporary’ suspensions (which turns out to be rolling suspensions) of tariffs on multitudes of individual parts / sub-assembled reflect the growing awareness by Trump-47 that the supply chain is far more complicated than he (and the large majority of Americans) realized.

It looks, now that Trump-47 has figured out (very quickly, I might add) that ubiquitous implementation of tariffs is not good. Team Trump-47 is very agile (very much unlike WH administrations that had career politicians -&/ or- lawyers as POTUS) can not comprehend.

I sure hope so.

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Lowest inflation rate in 4 years.

Tariff nonsense is self inflicted. Markets are speculative based on expectations

Re: Someone explain this to me like Im 5. Flow?

I think it is positive CPI data...

Re: I think it is positive CPI data...

Donnys cabal of fraudsters are collecting their profits from yesterday's bump

We are heading into a recession. And that's a good thing and a bad thing

Re: Someone explain this to me like Im 5. Flow?

it's interesting how you view the world...

Re: it's interesting how you view the world...

The market is not going through the roof, it is lower

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