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Clemson Conqueror [11579]
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CPI games: How CPI food index is misleading
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Aug 17, 2023, 1:45 PM
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Anyone curious about why the CPI food component doesn’t look so bad?
The easy part is that people are eating out less and eating more cheaply at home.
The other part is not as obvious: Expenditures for government purchases of food for distribution to schools (school lunch programs), public food give-aways to the poor are not included in the CPI food index.
C&P from Marketplace - What’s included in the Consumer Price Index and what isn’t?
Janet Nguyen
Nov 22, 2021
Steve Reed, an economist with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, told Marketplace that the goal of the CPI is to measure changes in the cost of living by tracking prices for items such as gas, groceries, clothing and housing.
The CPI represents the goods and services that consumers purchase across 200 categories, which are placed into eight major groups. This means that, collectively, the goods that are measured were 6% more expensive — not that every item’s price has increased 6%.
But Connel Fullenkamp, a professor of the practice of economics at Duke University, said that the CPI only includes items that people pay out-of-pocket for, which means it doesn’t take into account goods and services that may have been provided to consumers by, for example, the nonprofit sector and the government.
Sign up for the daily Marketplace newsletter to make sense of the most important business and economic news.
That means there are key items that are omitted — like Medicaid and parts of Medicare, explained Paul Chiou, an associate teaching professor of finance at Northeastern University.
And the current method may underestimate the increase in education costs, Chiou said. Like we see with health care, the CPI only reflects those out-of-pocket expenses.
Xxxxxx
Inflationary taxation in which money for food is spent buy the government reduces the CPI for food expenditures by the public. In effect, the CPI food index can be engineered to be artificially reduced by increasing the government’s expenditures for food.
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Ultimate Tiger [35065]
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I think you are reading the comments wrong...
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Aug 17, 2023, 2:08 PM
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and also perhaps not understanding how an index works.
The comments in the quote you posted (without the link btw) do not support the conclusion you come to of "CPI food index can be engineered to be artificially reduced by increasing the government’s expenditures for food".
The index measures the change in the cost of certain items. The cost of those items is not impacted by if the government also gives some of the same item out for free. The government giving hand-outs would change the impact of inflation or one's personal inflation, but not inflation as a general measure.
Further, it's generally accepted by economists that the CPI tends to understate and not overstate the degree of inflation, or maybe better stated, the impact of inflation...that's because it doesn't account for the consumers reaction to rising prices. Meaning, the index doesn't measure changes in buying patterns in response to changes in prices.
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Clemson Conqueror [11579]
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Re: I think you are reading the comments wrong...
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Aug 17, 2023, 8:33 PM
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The point here is the CPI - food index. Not inflation overall. Govt cites the CPI - food index subset of the CPI in general to create a false narrative to people who are not buying homes (inflation is very low or negative for home prices). Middle class voters aren’t typically in the market foe second homes such as mountain chalets or beach cottages. The middle class voters are worried about electricity costs, gasoline costs, and how to keep food costs from ruining them. Eating out less and substituting lower quality grocery store goods are how they keep their heads above water.
USA Today - 'We’re just trying to feed kids:' Lunch prices in public schools spike amid budget cuts. By Kayla Jimenez
Aug. 15, 2023. C&P
“The federal government reimburses public schools for meals they serve to kids who qualify for free and reduced-price lunches and snacks based on income level. During the pandemic, Congress passed the Keep Kids Fed Act, which increased the amount the federal government pays schools for lunch by 40 cents and for breakfast by 15 cents for the 2022-23 school year. The aid expired June 30.”
The CPI food index does not count school lunch programs, nor food give outs to poor people, in the CPI food index.
This allows the federal government to understate food costs for the public consumers, using the CPI definition of how ‘consumer expenditures for food’ is defined. This definition does not account for the fact that food costs for every citizen that eats food have risen more than what the conveniently narrowly defined CPI food index reports.
(*). This matters from the government’s self congratulating propaganda in that the CPI food index gets cited as ‘proof’ that food costs had not increased as much as per the perception of the general public.
(*). US ERS (Economic Research Service) C&P.
Background on the CPI for Food
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the principal indicator of consumer price changes in the U.S. economy. The CPI measures the average prices paid by urban consumers for a defined market basket of goods and services, including food. Changes in the CPI are widely used to measure price inflation (changes in the general price level) in the U.S. economy.
The food-at-home CPI indicates changes in retail food prices and is closely followed by industry analysts, food market participants, and policymakers. Many current and proposed policies are evaluated and updated based on CPI measures. To contribute to the analysis of government and commercial decision-makers, ERS forecasts changes in the CPI for all food, food at home, food away from home, and for individual food categories.
Changes in consumer preferences and costs within the food system can influence food prices. The relationships among these market forces typically differ across food categories. Researchers at ERS not only produce forecasts of the CPI, but also analyze the impact of economic factors on changes in each CPI.
On a monthly basis, ERS updates and provides annual food price forecasts for up to 18 months, based on a time-series-econometrics forecasting approach. ERS uses monthly U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics' indexes to forecast all food, food away from home, food at home, and 15 food-at-home categories.
Xxxxxxx
CPI - Food Index does not count how consumers have managed to keep from blowing their food budgets via eating out less and by buying in home food items at the present time that are different from the more costly former food items that they had formerly purchased.
Xxxxxxx
I stand by my assertion that the federal govt intentionally (attempts) to mislead voters into not believing their lying eyes about soaring food costs.
The CPI - food index definitions allow this propaganda to take place.
I do admire the loyalty of lefties to be individual mouthpieces for the ‘success’ of Bidenomics and the Inflation Reduction Act.
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Game Changer [1987]
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Tell me you don’t understand CPI without telling me
Aug 17, 2023, 11:20 PM
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you don’t understand CPI.
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Ultimate Tiger [35065]
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How can you have spent the time...
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Aug 18, 2023, 5:03 PM
[ in reply to Re: I think you are reading the comments wrong... ] |
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typing/copying all of that and still completely miss the point.
The food index measures how certain specific food items change in price over time. It's very simple.
Please explain, in your own words, how federal school lunches/give aways have any impact at all on the price of the individual items that are used for the index.
You seems to be conflating different issues/topics into some incorrect conclusion that doesn't even match up with what an index is, how it's calculated, and what it means.
And what does your last statement of "I do admire the loyalty of lefties to be individual mouthpieces for the ‘success’ of Bidenomics and the Inflation Reduction Act." have to do with any of this?
I'm pointing out that you don't understand what the CPI is...not that there isn't inflation or that I in any way support Biden's policies. I'm also about the farthest thing from a leftie you can imagine.
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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CPI can be calculated on a month-to-month basis, a year-
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Aug 18, 2023, 8:44 PM
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to-year basis, whatever... If you calculate it on a Jan '21- August '23 basis, it's exponentially higher than their stated numbers.
I won't even start to list all of the dramatic increases in groceries... Those, alone, would probably be in the 50-75% range in 2.5 years.
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Ultimate Tiger [35065]
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Huh? Again...you don't seem to understand an index...
Aug 19, 2023, 7:37 AM
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An index, like CPI, is a number...a single number.
The index number can be used to analyze change and rate of change over any time period in which the index has existed.
"CPI can be calculated on a month-to-month basis"
No change in CPI can be calculated. I know it's semantics but it illustrates that you don't understand what we're talking about here.
Normally, the analysis will be something like "US Consumer Price Index is at a current level of 304.35, up from 303.84 last month and up from 294.63 one year ago. This is a change of 0.17% from last month and 3.30% from one year ago." Month over month and year over year is a way to analyze the situation. Also year over YOY from last month vs YOY from this month to see if the rate of change is increasing or decreasing.
As usual, you seem to be suggesting some hidden agenda or conspiracy in reporting. As if using the YOY comparison is somehow not useful because it doesn't capture some impact from valley to peak.
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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Even with the recent drops in pricing, a gallon of milk is
Aug 19, 2023, 9:33 AM
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still up ~60% and a loaf of bread roughly the same. I don't give a chit about calculating indexes... They don't change the facts or prices.
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Ultimate Tiger [35065]
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Lol...ok...so why are you even commenting on this thread?...
Aug 19, 2023, 9:48 AM
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No...the CPI doesn't change the facts...it is the "facts" in the context of picking a representative group of items and watch measure how they change. Hint...milk going up x% is included in the index.
I just don't get the simple minded offense taken that somehow a reference index isn't "correct".
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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His original point was that the index is deceptive as to the
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Aug 19, 2023, 9:53 AM
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actual prices of goods... The 2.1% increase declared isn't reflective of the 60% actual increases.
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Ultimate Tiger [35065]
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And the original point is wrong....
Aug 19, 2023, 10:08 AM
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As has been pointed out...at least the idea that school lunches and federal giveaways impact the index. You get that, right?
The last food CPI print shows the index is up 4.86% YOY. FWIW milk prices have dropped a lot over the last year or so.
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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Yes, milk has dropped as I stated earlier... 4.86% is BS.
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Aug 19, 2023, 10:15 AM
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Try figuring the CPI since Jan '21 instead of YOY... That's much more revealing.
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Ultimate Tiger [35065]
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Why is it BS?....
Aug 19, 2023, 10:19 AM
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And changing the time frame is not MORE revealing...it's different data.
I'm not sure what you're arguing against exactly...I'm not suggesting at all there wasn't massive inflation on food since COVID.
On one hand you say you don't care about the index and on the other you reference the index over a different period as more telling.
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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Precisely what I'm saying... It's a game of deception.
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Aug 19, 2023, 11:18 AM
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Look at your chart. When did it go vertical? Last month's CPI is irrelevant. The same can be said for inflation numbers.
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Ultimate Tiger [35065]
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You're a lost cause...seriously....
Aug 19, 2023, 11:28 AM
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It's not a frickin deception. It is an index measure...objective and simple.
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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It's a short-term number to obfuscate the fustercluck that
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Aug 19, 2023, 11:40 AM
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this administration unleashed with rampant deficit spending... Yea, it is simple.
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Ultimate Tiger [35065]
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It's NOT a short term number...
Aug 19, 2023, 11:53 AM
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It's an instantaneous number that you can compare over any period you want...you know...an INDEX!
Seriously, how can you not understand that. You keep doubling down when you clearly don't understand what you're talking about.
And for some stupid reason, I keep replying to you...like you'll ever stop and try to understand.
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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Here's the 'nuts' of the whole situation, using the history.
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Aug 19, 2023, 12:22 PM
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The CPI increased from 243->258 during the 4 years of the previous administration.
It has increased from 262->306 during just over 2.5 years of this administration.
That's 15 in 4 years vs. 44 in 2.5 and will certainly be at least tripled by the end of the year. Who knows about next year.
Last month's change becomes basically irrelevant in the overall assessment.
https://www.rateinflation.com/consumer-price-index/usa-historical-cpi/
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Ultimate Tiger [35065]
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No one is arguing to the contrary...
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Aug 19, 2023, 12:45 PM
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In terms of change under Biden admin.
Last month's figure isn't irrelevant...it just "is". It shows rate of inflation is decelerating. Over that period.
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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Whatever... Touting a 'slowing' is rather lame. I guess we
Aug 19, 2023, 1:02 PM
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just have a different overall perspective. I see your point. I've made mine.
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Game Changer [1987]
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Sure the number would be higher if you change the time frame.
Aug 19, 2023, 11:28 AM
[ in reply to Yes, milk has dropped as I stated earlier... 4.86% is BS. ] |
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They don’t report the % change since 1970…conspiracy? That number would be so much higher!!
CPI is reported YOY and month over month. If you want a different time frame, that data is posted right on their website for everyone to see. Have at it.
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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Did. ^^^***
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Aug 19, 2023, 12:22 PM
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Orange Blooded [2058]
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Re: How can you have spent the time...
Aug 21, 2023, 8:45 AM
[ in reply to How can you have spent the time... ] |
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> You seems to be conflating different issues/topics into some incorrect conclusion that doesn't even match up with what an index is, how it's calculated, and what it means.
This is pretty much the case for all of his rants. There is a severe lack of understanding followed by a n incorrect conclusion.
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All-TigerNet [10134]
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Re: I think you are reading the comments wrong...
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Aug 20, 2023, 5:54 PM
[ in reply to I think you are reading the comments wrong... ] |
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and also perhaps not understanding how an index works.
The comments in the quote you posted (without the link btw) do not support the conclusion you come to of "CPI food index can be engineered to be artificially reduced by increasing the government’s expenditures for food".
The index measures the change in the cost of certain items. The cost of those items is not impacted by if the government also gives some of the same item out for free. The government giving hand-outs would change the impact of inflation or one's personal inflation, but not inflation as a general measure.
Further, it's generally accepted by economists that the CPI tends to understate and not overstate the degree of inflation, or maybe better stated, the impact of inflation...that's because it doesn't account for the consumers reaction to rising prices. Meaning, the index doesn't measure changes in buying patterns in response to changes in prices.
Whatever it is, it is up 5.5% from June 2022.
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Hall of Famer [8144]
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Those last two sentences are just gibberish.
Aug 17, 2023, 2:16 PM
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First off, BLS measures grocery and restaurant expenditures separately, not to mention that there are plenty of line item expenditures within those groups. CPI tries to come up with a basket of goods that represents an average households spending. Not only would the weights change as people cook from home more like during covid, but they'd both be subject to inflation. The second part has to do with government spending, I'm not sure what this has to do with CPI. Sure if meals are included in public schools the kid still gets one regardless of what the school is paying (presumably this is on a yearly or longer contract anyways), but that's not really suppose to be captured in CPI. There are a ton of different inflation indices not to mention you can get local ones, so feel free to pick one that more accurately represents your household or whatever.
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Clemson Conqueror [11579]
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Re: Those last two sentences are just gibberish.
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Aug 17, 2023, 8:45 PM
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The point here is that the CPI food index is favorably affected when consumers purchase less food at home; with free meals provided by food give away entities to those consumers who would otherwise be the consumers of that food.
The government touts a particular CPI index if they see a political advantage for doing so. In today’s America, the Biden admin brags that Bidenomics and the Inflation Reduction Act is working. Biden admin’s propaganda services (formerly known as news agencies and current events periodicals) cite specific parts of the CPI to ‘prove’ that Bidenomics has been successful.
Citing the CPI food index, which casual observers believe represents food purchased at the grocery store, reflects cheaper prices than what people are experiencing when attempting to limit overall expenditures for food to stay within the family’s overall budget.
The expansion of govt food give away programs is one way to engineer a lower CPI - food index number.
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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I don't care HOW they figured that CPI food index... Those
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Aug 17, 2023, 8:52 PM
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supposed numbers are either stated as a month-to-month delta or they're complete BS!
If they were a year-to-year, they'd still be higher than even the 18% someone stated earlier.
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Athletic Dir [1126]
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Re: Those last two sentences are just gibberish.
Aug 18, 2023, 1:21 AM
[ in reply to Re: Those last two sentences are just gibberish. ] |
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Look, dummy. You know that when the government buys food to give it away, that the government still BUYS the food, right. We don’t have government farms and meat-packing plants, etc. The government isn’t magically creating food to artificially lower prices, right?
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Clemson Conqueror [11579]
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Are the lefties stupid, or do they just not care?
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Aug 18, 2023, 10:38 AM
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The CPI food index does not include food purchased by government institutions.
The govt knows that most people don’t understand that.
Thank you for volunteering to be an example in proving my point.
Thus, the govt can cite the CPI food index as ‘evidence’ that food prices have not gone up as much as the typical citizen who buys her / his food has paid in higher food prices. The government, referencing the definition of the CPI food index, is technically correct, but their objective is to fool the citizen because darn few will understand how the CPI food index is defined.
This is all about using definitions for a government index as a ‘honest’ way to deceive the public.
In the meanwhile, lefties enjoy the financial benefits for being in jobs affiliated with federal government &/or a company which gets favorable treatment by the govt &/or an industry which is financially underpinned by the federal govt.
Why should lefties care about the suckers that are not in one of those entities which gets money (directly or indirectly) or favorable treatment from the federal govt?
The lefties got theirs and don’t give a rip about the others.
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Athletic Dir [1126]
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No, no, no, you worthless fool
Aug 18, 2023, 9:30 PM
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You completely miss the point. The government may provide some food, but it pays for that food (typically at a higher price than a private entity) and thereby helps to maintain or increase the price of said food.
Lay off the meth for a few days.
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Clemson Conqueror [11579]
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Gather ‘round, kids. Daddy’s talking.
Aug 19, 2023, 6:07 PM
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You’ll get it this time. Hypothetical example with likely assumptions.
Assumption: The govt purchases the same high quality for any given food from within a defined food category.
Assumption: The govt pays the same fair market prices for food as those prices pail by the public purchaser of food.
Fact: The govt’s purchases of food for giveaway programs are not included in the CPI food index calculation.
Example - background fixed variables: Family of 4 with 2 kids in school. Each person has the same diet and eats the same portions as the other family members. Each person eats 3 meals per day. Target family budget for food per day is $30 / person; $120 / entire family. Family cannot afford to pay more than $160 / day for food.
Starting scenario: Each meal consists of a meat food unit (which is high grade Yellowstone Ranch steak with cost of $8 per food unit) and vegetable unit (which is high grade frozen broccoli [Bird’s Eye brand] with cost of $2 / food unit). Total per meal food costs are $10 per meal. Total family expenditures are $40 / meal. Total family food expenditures per day are $120 / day.. No meals are purchased by the govt; the family purchases its entire food requirements by itself.
Food inflation scenario: High quality Yellowstone Ranch steak prices rise to $15 per food unit. High quality Bird’s Eye frozen broccoli rises to $5 per food unit. New cost per meal = $20; food cost per person each day = $60; entire family per day = $240. Family cannot afford to pay $240 / day for food.
Add on scenario: Free govt food program for younger kid becomes available. Young kid eats all 3 meals per day from this program. Mom and Dad and older kid are not eligible and must continue to buy their own food. Cost per day for inflated cost per food unit of historically same quality of high quality steak + broccoli is now $180 / day for the family.
(*). Family must cut food expenditures by $20 / day. This is done by buying same cut of steak, but from the cheaper Gristle Ranch brand and via the cheaper broccoli from Sulfur Smell Farms.
(*). CPI food index does not distinguish between quality of food within any given food item. The family makes their budget work by buying poorer quality food.
(*). Had the free govt food not been available for the one kid, then the family would have had to change their diet from Yellowstone Ranch steak to Spam.
(***). Thus, the free govt food programs ‘game the system’ by creating scenarios in which each food item has a smaller cost increase (using the definition of CPI food units) than otherwise would have been possible in the absence of the govt food giveaways.
It’s easy to talk; it takes a bit more effort to think. Saves time in the long run if the thinking takes place before the talking.
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Hall of Famer [8144]
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Why don't you just find a fixed item price?
Aug 19, 2023, 7:02 PM
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They have big Mac indexes and such.
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Clemson Conqueror [11579]
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Re: Why don't you just find a fixed item price?
Aug 19, 2023, 7:41 PM
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There are darn few pure ‘1 + 1 = 2’ scenarios in real life. This post was not simply to alert someone that they could check how the price of one particular highly specialized food item had changed in price.
The purpose for the original post was to enlighten people about how govt can manipulate people into doubting their own experiences in managing higher food prices. By citing the ‘unassailable’ CPI Food index as an oblique way of inferring that the food prices had not risen very much, the typical citizen may question himself and to trust the government instead of themselves.
Technically, the govt is not lying when referencing CPI food index, since the definition of what is used to calculate the CPI food index is not really understood but by a small minority of citizens.
The moral of this story is to never trust that government statistics only rarely mean what the typical citizen thinks that stat means. Don’t start mistrusting yourself simply because some clever talking government official suggests that your understandings are wrong.
(*). I do appreciate your personal qualities in you to think, ask questions, and to offer advice & corrections. I do learn useful things from you (even though I am infrequently simpatico with your political positions).
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Ultimate Tiger [35065]
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This is very wrong on many points....
Aug 19, 2023, 7:41 PM
[ in reply to Gather ‘round, kids. Daddy’s talking. ] |
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You continue to exhibit a misunderstanding of how the index works. There is something called the Market Basket of Goods. Think about it like a shopping list.
As a simple explanation, the index is adding up all the current prices for all of the items on the basket list.
Example
Gallon of milk $4
Loaf of bread $4
Pound of ground beef $8
Pound of apples $4
And so on....
The CPI for a given month is the total of that list for said month. Some items go up, some go down, and so on.
The index is not a measure on what some family may or may not spend based on what might be given to them by the government. It is not a consumption measure or actual expenditure measure (there are some measures like that but this isn't one of them).
Federal funded school lunches don't directly impact what the items on the basket list cost. Therefore that kind of spending has no direct bearing on the index.
As for consumers trading down on quality as a reaction to increasing prices...that is actually a point in the opposite direction of what you're trying to say. Since the index ultimately measures specific items, quality, and brands even, it's commonly argued that the index overstates what the the typical consumer might actually be paying. As an example, let's say the basket includes chicken breasts as in of the items, but because the price of chicken increases, consumers start buying more cheaper chicken thighs. That throws the basket mix off and the ratio of thighs to breasts increases...and that means actual increase of grocery expenditure would be less then the index would indicate
In other words...and to put it in your terms...you need to close your mouth and open your ears and understand what you're talking about.
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Clemson Conqueror [11579]
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Re: This is very wrong on many points....
Aug 19, 2023, 8:04 PM
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As explained to cac (just above) and cited in my original post, the purpose of the original post was not to stop at how the CPI food index is calculated.
Rather, the purpose of the original post was to enlighten people about how the CPI food index is manipulated to make consumers doubt their ‘lying eyes’ with regard to their perceptions of family food budgets and to instead trust the CPI food index.
Federal funding for food INDIRECTLY influences what private consumers pay for food. That is what I had in artfully tried to explain in my first few posts.
The example that I provided a couple of hours before illustrates how that INDIRECT impact of federal food giveaway programs provides a tangible way in which family food purchase costs end up having a greater negative impact on the family’s quality of life than would otherwise be gleaned from looking at the CPI food index.
Your example of the chicken breasts to chicken thighs is useful in many respects, but is not the single magic bullet that explains how families reconcile their dietary preferences with their budgetary constraints.
CPI food index does not take into account differences in quality (with definitions of “quality” including nutritional factors [such as sodium content or sugar content between brands] or pleasure of consumption factors [taste of Public brand OJ vs Kroger brand OJ].
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Game Changer [1987]
TigerPulse: 96%
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Please tell me you didn’t graduate from Clemson.***
Aug 19, 2023, 8:33 PM
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Ultimate Tiger [35065]
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You keep making less and less sense...
Aug 20, 2023, 8:51 AM
[ in reply to Re: This is very wrong on many points.... ] |
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If there is any indirect impact from gov purchases, it would be to drive UP prices, not down.
The point holds is that CPI tends to overstate and not understate what folks are actually spending, on avg.
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Legend [6884]
TigerPulse: 89%
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Re: CPI games: How CPI food index is misleading
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Aug 18, 2023, 4:32 PM
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Food in grocery stores is far more expensive than pre-covid and covid times...
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Clemson Icon [27824]
TigerPulse: 100%
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They'll still argue FACTS. Why, I don't know.***
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Aug 18, 2023, 8:46 PM
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Ultimate Tiger [35065]
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Paw Warrior [5016]
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Re: CPI games: How CPI food index is misleading
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Aug 19, 2023, 7:49 AM
[ in reply to Re: CPI games: How CPI food index is misleading ] |
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Food, gas, utilities, etc is jus insanely high now. I feel awful for young families and older people on a fixed income. It’s really sad what this country is going through.
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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Those are daily commodities for the masses...They're nothing
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Aug 19, 2023, 9:37 AM
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to the 1%ers who are now drawing 5.5%+ on their savings account.
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Paw Warrior [5016]
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Re: Those are daily commodities for the masses...They're nothing
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Aug 19, 2023, 9:48 AM
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Correct. “Rich men north of Richmond” don’t feel any stress from the inflation.
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Athletic Dir [1126]
TigerPulse: 79%
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Re: CPI games: How CPI food index is misleading
Aug 19, 2023, 11:21 AM
[ in reply to Re: CPI games: How CPI food index is misleading ] |
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You nutjobs really love to exaggerate. Inflation for consumers is 3.2%, historically pretty good. And young families? They’ve never seen a job market like this. You’ve never seen a job market like this.
Do you know the wages for guest workers who pick your produce in Florida? It’s probably a lot high than you think.
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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Now compound that for 2.66 years... You're clueless.***
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Aug 19, 2023, 11:23 AM
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Athletic Dir [1126]
TigerPulse: 79%
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Re: Now compound that for 2.66 years... You're clueless.***
Aug 19, 2023, 11:41 AM
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You must be very young or very stupid. Maybe it’s both.
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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Joined: 2010
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How much are you paying for gas, milk, and bread...?
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Aug 19, 2023, 11:47 AM
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By definition, inflation is a rise in pricing of specific commodities over a given period of time...
As I stated, compound that over the last 2.66 years.
I'm not going to bother to cite them, but there are numerous articles from everywhere that state this is the worst inflation in 40 years.
Stating what happened since last month is minuscule to the overall assessment.
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Athletic Dir [1126]
TigerPulse: 79%
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Re: How much are you paying for gas, milk, and bread...?
Aug 19, 2023, 12:18 PM
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It’s stupid, after all.
The articles that claim the worst inflation in 40 years are one year old now. And they were correct for 2022. While you were in rehab for the nth time, the year actually changed to 2023 and inflation is a lot lower. And that reduction came without the bad recession of 41 years ago.
Agricultural guest worker wages are $18-$20, by the way. Imagine what food prices would be like if only legal labor was used.
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Paw Warrior [5016]
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Re: How much are you paying for gas, milk, and bread...?
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Aug 19, 2023, 12:43 PM
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So inflation is 3.2%. Inflation is basically the rate at which your dollar is worth less. How much less is that dollar worth over the past 2.66 years as Solos mentioned? So inflation has slowed. Big deal. Are prices coming down ? Of course not. Hot job market? Is grandmas social security keeping pace like that young professional ? Are retirees who don’t have a 7 figure investment portfolio keeping up? You think maybe their dollar is worth less with no means to do anything about it? To say everything is peachy seems very insensitive to the masses who are struggling.
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Athletic Dir [1126]
TigerPulse: 79%
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Re: How much are you paying for gas, milk, and bread...?
Aug 19, 2023, 12:59 PM
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Average inflation in 2022 was 6.5% Grandma got an 8.7% COLA to SS in January. Can you math? That Fox bubble doesn’t let much knowledge or common sense in.
You must know that SS benefits track the inflation rate. Or at least you must have known at some point before filling your head with all that garbage.
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Paw Warrior [5016]
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Re: How much are you paying for gas, milk, and bread...?
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Aug 19, 2023, 1:01 PM
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Good grief give me a break. That little SS raise is not keeping up. Dang you’re in denial or just don’t give a crap.
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Athletic Dir [1126]
TigerPulse: 79%
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Re: How much are you paying for gas, milk, and bread...?
Aug 19, 2023, 1:05 PM
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So you can’t do basic math. I understand now.
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Clemson Conqueror [11579]
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Re: How much are you paying for gas, milk, and bread...?
Aug 19, 2023, 6:12 PM
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Daddy’s back. I’m here to help. I’ve spelled it all out to the lefties via an example based response to one of your previous posts.
I’m more confident now that even the lefties will be able to understand.
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Athletic Dir [1126]
TigerPulse: 79%
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Re: How much are you paying for gas, milk, and bread...?
Aug 20, 2023, 12:50 PM
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How many deflections and non sequitors does it contain? A lot, I’d guess.
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Ultimate Tiger [35065]
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Who is saying everything is peachy?...
Aug 19, 2023, 1:00 PM
[ in reply to Re: How much are you paying for gas, milk, and bread...? ] |
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But yeah, prices on many items have been coming down...others are still increasing. We certainly don't want overall deflation.
And grandma's SS had a COLA of almost 9% last year, I think.
It's looking like we might avoid a prolonged recession and the rate of inflation is slowing...that's a good thing, right?
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Paw Warrior [5016]
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Re: Who is saying everything is peachy?...
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Aug 19, 2023, 1:06 PM
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Austin seems to think things are peachy that’s who. Yes, granny got an 8.8% raise. So in her $1700 SS check she now gets $150 per month , $1800 per year more. Granny is rolling now!!!
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Ultimate Tiger [35065]
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You like hyperbole huh...
Aug 19, 2023, 1:13 PM
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Don't recall saying anyone was rolling. You just say stiff that isn't true and then when someone points out the error, hit em with some hyperbole.
COLA is base on the inflation measures. Not sure how else you would like it to be done.
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Paw Warrior [5016]
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Re: You like hyperbole huh...
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Aug 19, 2023, 1:17 PM
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He said it’s the best job market young people have ever seen. He bragged about the SS raise of 8.8%. He lauded the recent cooling of inflation even though the past couple years have been atrocious. He called me and others “nut job” , “stupid “, and more. Yet I exaggerate. Ok. Carry on.
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Ultimate Tiger [35065]
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Most of what he said is correct.***
Aug 19, 2023, 1:23 PM
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Athletic Dir [1126]
TigerPulse: 79%
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Part of my job is to call out stupid when I see it
Aug 19, 2023, 2:31 PM
[ in reply to Re: You like hyperbole huh... ] |
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You want so badly for things to be worse now than they were under Trump, that you've detached from reality with the rest of MAGA Moron Nation. A small step to recovery is to take that picture of Don off your bedside table.
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Ultimate Tiger [35065]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Joined: 2003
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I'm not a Trump supporter but the Biden admin...
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Aug 19, 2023, 2:48 PM
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and Dems in Congress have horrible economic positions. Don't think any admin has that direct of control on the economy but the Biden energy policy is incredibly inflationary and mis-guided. And they went well overboard on last 2 COVID relief packages that fueled inflation.
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Athletic Dir [1126]
TigerPulse: 79%
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That’s been the song some people are singing
Aug 19, 2023, 3:37 PM
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Did you know that we are producing the most oil of at any time in the nation’s history? Most people don’t.
I saw no evidence of demand causing the 2022 inflation. Everything I saw was supply side.
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Paw Warrior [5016]
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Re: Part of my job is to call out stupid when I see it
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Aug 19, 2023, 7:04 PM
[ in reply to Part of my job is to call out stupid when I see it ] |
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You think I want things to be bad?? I’m 59 and planning to retire in the next 2 to 3 years. I assure you I do not want things to be bad. What a foolish statement!!
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Athletic Dir [1126]
TigerPulse: 79%
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Re: Part of my job is to call out stupid when I see it
Aug 19, 2023, 9:38 PM
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Then why pretend to be a fool? I’m a year behind you, but obviously decades wiser. I’ve never seen a job market as broadly bullish as we have now. The IT bubble was similar for IT professionals, but it’s like that now for all engineers, scientists, and mathematicians. In service industry, restaurants offer retention bonuses to hire cooks, in addition to offering more than a couple of years ago. Service industry managers line up interviews with a dozen candidates and are lucky if only one shows. Things aren’t as bad as Tucker and the rest of the idiots tell you. Take some time, get off the toilet, and check out the real world.
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Athletic Dir [1126]
TigerPulse: 79%
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Re: Who is saying everything is peachy?...
Aug 19, 2023, 1:13 PM
[ in reply to Who is saying everything is peachy?... ] |
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Electronic items have come down a lot. Car prices are high. Real estate has been coming down. Rental rates are dropping. Eggs, bread, gas dropped. Chicken dropped a lot, but the high prices were because of avian flu.
Restaurant prices aren’t coming down. They have to pay people more to retain them in this market. They’ve also gotten spoiled by all the convenience the food service companies provide, versus the old days of doing more in-house food prep, and weren’t ready for price hikes.
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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"Eggs, bread, gas dropped."... and they're still up 50%+...***
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Aug 19, 2023, 3:56 PM
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Athletic Dir [1126]
TigerPulse: 79%
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Re: "Eggs, bread, gas dropped."... and they're still up 50%+...***
Aug 19, 2023, 7:10 PM
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You are pretty simple. Gas is at a good price to encourage exploration and production. Same price range as 2008 and 2011-2014 (without inflation, dummy).
If you are paying 50% more for eggs and bread than you did in 2019, I have some horse manure to sell you. Only $1 a pound. Catch is, you have to buy at least 100 pounds, and I have to witness you eating 5 lbs of it. Shouldn’t be a challenge.
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Clemson Icon [27824]
TigerPulse: 100%
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I bet you're a cute little b!tch. Go play in your chit.***
Aug 20, 2023, 3:26 AM
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Athletic Dir [1126]
TigerPulse: 79%
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Re: I bet you're a cute little b!tch. Go play in your chit.***
Aug 20, 2023, 12:41 PM
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You’re an angry elf
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Clemson Icon [27824]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Joined: 2010
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At least I don't fantasize about eating chit... like you.***
Aug 21, 2023, 4:47 PM
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Athletic Dir [1126]
TigerPulse: 79%
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Re: At least I don't fantasize about eating chit... like you.***
Aug 21, 2023, 9:35 PM
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It's better than those naughty thoughts of Trump you have to live with. Sick, you are sick.
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Clemson Conqueror [11579]
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Re: "Eggs, bread, gas dropped."... don’t forget electricity
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Aug 19, 2023, 10:20 PM
[ in reply to "Eggs, bread, gas dropped."... and they're still up 50%+...*** ] |
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FWIW, residential electricity prices June 2023 vs June 2022) are up ~ 5.4%.
In 2022, residential demand for electricity was ~ 1.42 trillion kilowatthours. This was up slightly from 2021 (ballpark of ~ 1.4 T kWh.
I’m too lazy to search for estimated calendar year 2023 demand; probably not going to be a big change vs 2022.
Here’s why I’m concerned: It’s about
EV’s are a darn near a sure thing to increase annual residential electricity demand for the next decade. The USA’s green energy policy has emphasized wind and solar to increase capacity, but not much to encourage electric utilities for increasing generating capacity via coal, nat gas, or fuel oil.
There’s no way around it; costs for residential electricity are going up a bunch each year for at least the next several years.
It’s great that some Americans have their biggest budgetary expenses outside of at-home food, residential electricity, and gasoline for cars. The nascent ‘richcession’ will carve into that sense of invulnerability, but for the next few years the main inflation factors in the lives of the non-high flyers … in home food, electricity, and gasoline … will continue to escalate the cost of living + impair their quality of life. Not all of these people are on SS, and those which start taking SS at the earliest age will get lower monthly payments than had they chosen (or were able to) continue working.
Paying more for electricity + jacking up the thermostat throughout the warm months of the year = crappy future. Money will have to be spent on (increasingly poorer quality / less enjoyable) food instead of higher priced electricity. Hot times in America!
It’s sad that today’s lefties have become the same as the indifferent-to-the-poor Republicans of yesteryear. True liberals, who would have cared about this, are a dying breed.
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Clemson Icon [27824]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Joined: 2010
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Ah, but those dirty 'populists'...***
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Aug 20, 2023, 3:28 AM
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Paw Warrior [5016]
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Athletic Dir [1126]
TigerPulse: 79%
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Re: "Eggs, bread, gas dropped."... don’t forget electricity
Aug 20, 2023, 4:22 PM
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I’m trying to educate you about what the world is like today. It’s not all doom and gloom like you think.
And all your pea brain can come with is “lefty this” and “lefty that.” Come up with something substantial if you don’t want to look like a fool. Just don’t make up stuff and repeat misinformation like danny.
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Paw Warrior [5016]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: "Eggs, bread, gas dropped."... don’t forget electricity
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Aug 20, 2023, 6:15 PM
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Well thanks for edgymucatin me.
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Athletic Dir [1126]
TigerPulse: 79%
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Re: "Eggs, bread, gas dropped."... don’t forget electricity
Aug 20, 2023, 12:40 PM
[ in reply to Re: "Eggs, bread, gas dropped."... don’t forget electricity ] |
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If I happen to point out that natural gas is the largest portion of expanding power generation capacity (wind, solar, nuclear are next), I’m sure you will say “what about coal?” Power companies don’t want to expand traditional coal capacity (coal fired boiler + steam turbine), so it keeps going down. Gas turbines are the most efficient way to use fossil fuels, versus a fired boiler and steam turbines. Gasified coal is more expensive right now than natural gas or diesel and it requires more equipment to produce, remove particulates before combustion, and treat all the nasties after. For your education, look up the communities with the highest incidence of cancers and then check how close they are or were to a coal-fired plant.
Natural gas used to be much more expensive. My gas bill is much lower than it was 25 years ago because of natural gas field development that started under Clinton and continued under Bush and Obama. By the time the orange doofus got into office, gas was so cheap that producers were capping wells. If gasified coal becomes economical, it can feed all the new turbines. Same with hydrogen.
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Clemson Conqueror [11579]
TigerPulse: 98%
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Joined: 2021
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Re: "Eggs, bread, gas dropped."... don’t forget electricity
Aug 20, 2023, 10:48 PM
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As with you and Flow, I’d welcome a reliably lower electricity price for all entities, but especially for households with limited prospects for increases in income. As you and Flow know, residential electricity rates are higher than those for industrial & commercial customers.
EV’s are going to change the demand vs (current) capacity equation for electric power … unless the high price for unsubsidized EV’s stays high, in which case the increase in electricity demand curve won’t be so steep.
Major new electric plants always costs more than already in place capacity. Bolt-on additions / efficiency upgrades not so bad as far as adding gobs of new fixed costs.
Do you think that the fixed cost component of the USA’s pending expansion of new electricity capacity will lead to higher electricity bills … despite the reasonable possibility that nat gas costs will fall?
Do you foresee that the (let’s call it likely, due to EV growth) demand for electricity will outstrip supply within the next 5 years? I mean on a widespread basis across the country. CA is probably firetrucked because the availability of power from places like Utah and other states will be needed for their intrastate growth in electricity demand.
Thanks.
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Ultimate Tiger [35065]
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Last year's spike in electricity rates....
Aug 20, 2023, 1:23 PM
[ in reply to Re: "Eggs, bread, gas dropped."... don’t forget electricity ] |
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Was largely due to the spike in nat gas pricing. It wasn't directly caused by expansion for renewables.
As I've said on here a number of times, I don't agree with the exclusive push of renewables over fossil fuels and nuclear, but that isn't what drove up prices last year.
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Athletic Dir [1126]
TigerPulse: 79%
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Re: Last year's spike in electricity rates....
Aug 20, 2023, 2:19 PM
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There has been a big push on nuclear. But not the gigawatt plants like the failed Westinghouse project in SC that caused increased rates there. SMRs are getting plenty of support from the government and famous arch-conservatives like Bill Gates.
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Commissioner [978]
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Re: CPI games: How CPI food index is misleading
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Aug 21, 2023, 7:53 AM
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The way I look at it is prices/ cost are not actually coming down. However, the "increase" in the prices is decreasing thank goodness. And my COL increase has been less than the inflation rates the last couple of years no matter how you calculate it.
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