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Replies: 12
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Mascot [25]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Hitting with RISP; a breakdown
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Apr 28, 2025, 2:22 PM
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Obviously over the last two series, the main point of contention within TNet has been the team's hitting (or lack thereof) with runners in scoring position. I took a look back at the last 7 games, encompassing the two series with Louisville and NC State, along with the midweek game against Georgia. Here are the averages over that span, with the overall season averages for the team in parentheses.
Games: 7
PA: 75
AB: 62
H: 9
1B: 5
2B: 0
3B: 1
HR: 2
SO: 23
BB: 11
HBP: 1
SF: 0
Bunts: 1
Runs off hits w/ RISP: 12
Avg: 0.145 (0.272, -0.127 difference)
OBP: 0.280 (0.406, -0.126 difference)
SLG: 0.258 (0.443, -0.185 difference)
OPS: 0.538 (0.849, -0.311 difference)
BABIP (Batting average of balls put in play): 0.189 (0.330, -0.141 difference)
SO%: 30.7% (21.3%, +9.4% difference)
BB%: 14.7% (15.0%, -0.3% difference)
Looking at the stats, clearly something isn't working with the approach they are taking. Watching the games, it looks like they are trying to draw walks, which leads to them falling behind and striking out or weakly grounding out trying to protect. Either that or they are up there swinging for the fences and falling flat watching strike three go right by. I don't know if it is the pressure getting to them, or incorrect/nonexistent strategy, which is leading to a disadvantage when the pitcher is changing their strategy to get outs. Nearly 46% of the last 75 plate appearances have ended in a strikeout or walk, showing that they are way too okay being passive at the plate.
Now I'm not suggesting they go up there free-swinging like they are prime Barry Bonds, but putting the ball in play, especially with less than two outs, is much more beneficial than a strikeout (or even a walk to some extent). However, there is some reason to believe a positive regression is coming, as a low BABIP typically points to some element of unlucky hitting (average BABIP typically is around 0.350). Sometimes you cream the ball, and the defense makes an incredible play, a la Cam Cannarella robbing a home run. This will show as a simple flyout, but absolutely nothing to look down on in terms of approach and contact.
I think this team can definitely make a run to Omaha, but they can't rely on the "bad luck" and the "that's just baseball" mentality, because that is only half the battle and is correct for some situations. I think the lineup can use a serious shakeup by rewarding guys who are crushing the ball and dropping guys down in the order to maybe create a spark in the second half of the order, and put some guys on for the top of the order to drive in. Modern metrics/theories suggest Priest in the 2-hole, Purify in the 4-hole, and Cannarella in the 5-hole, so do with that what you will. Maybe something will work or maybe not, but trying is better than not; as the old saying goes "insanity is repeating the same thing over again and expecting different results".
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Game Day Hero [4581]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Hitting with RISP; a breakdown
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Apr 28, 2025, 2:27 PM
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Accd'g to D1 rankings:
Louisville is 17
NC State is 13
Jawja is 9
My guess is they have pretty good pitching lineups.
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Solid Orange [1320]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Hitting with RISP; a breakdown
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Apr 28, 2025, 3:02 PM
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True, but there will only be very good pitching line-ups in the Regionals and Supers, to say nothing of Omaha. I think advancing to Omaha is the absolute ceiling of this team.
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Mascot [25]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Hitting with RISP; a breakdown
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Apr 28, 2025, 3:40 PM
[ in reply to Re: Hitting with RISP; a breakdown ] |
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That's a good point, if you look at all of April, these are the averages:
AVG: 0.247 (39/158)
OBP: 0.376 (34 walks & 7 HBP)
SLG: 0.399 (25 singles, 6 doubles, 2 triples, and 5 homeruns)
OPS: 0.774
BABIP: 0.304 (still room for improvement)
SO%: 21.5% (44 K's)
BB%: 16.6% (34 BB's)
Granted, the additions did come from 2 of the 3 worst teams in the ACC, one mid-major, and one low-major. In those 8 games, they walked a ton more, averaging almost 3 walks per game, increased from about 1.5 walks/game in the last 7.
As Springhill mentioned, these last three teams (and the next three also) are all postseason teams, so this is the level of pitching they will have to get used to if they want to make any sort of run towards Omaha. I'm sure they can figure it out, the main saving grace in this situation is that they have time to sort things out come regionals, and hopefully they use the NC State series as a wake-up call to start upping their game.
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Starter [259]
TigerPulse: 99%
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Re: Hitting with RISP; a breakdown
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Apr 28, 2025, 2:46 PM
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Its both. Overagressiveness from power hitters and passiveness from everyone else. Recent competition was going to show a regression in hitting because they are good pitching teams. FSU and Duke may very well cause more trouble. It seems like trying to just put the ball in play has been de-emphasized for getting on base or swinging for the fences. Hopefully EB tries a different approach this weekend.
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Oculus Spirit [40315]
TigerPulse: 100%
57
Posts: 22697
Joined: 2003
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Very Odd Stat..........Normally RISP BA Goes Up***
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Apr 28, 2025, 2:52 PM
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Solid Orange [1360]
TigerPulse: 100%
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To your point about the last 7 games
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Apr 28, 2025, 3:11 PM
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A few ytd stats that jump off the page to me:
Positives:
6th in walks.
27th in HBP.
Negatives:
30th in strike-outs per game.
103rd in Home runs.
105th in scoring.
180th in batting average.
I personally think the batting line-up needs to be shaken up dramatically. And we have to have a RF and DH that are better than .270 hitters. Those 2 positions HAVE to be good hitters. Priest, Bissetta, McCladdie and Crighton have accounted for 26% of the team's strike-outs. That can't happen.
All that being said, we saw what these guys are capable of in Feb/March. All it takes is a little momentum to get the on-base machine back alive.
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Mascot [25]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: To your point about the last 7 games
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Apr 28, 2025, 4:03 PM
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I agree, but to be fair, Priest has been the most productive hitter on the team the last month. He's the only guy with an OPS above 1.000, and the 4th highest OBP of all regular players. He is striking out a bit, but he's still 5th in SO%, so I think you can live with the K's with him also driving in runs the way he is (tied for 1st on the team).
RF is tricky, because you have three guys all performing similarly, and not enough spots elsewhere to get them regular at bats. I don't have the LHP/RHP splits, but I'd go with McCladdie as the primary guy in right for now, with Crighton platooning (assuming better LHP splits). I will say, Crighton does look like he can go on a tear, with a low BABIP and low strikeouts (12.9% K rate, 2nd on the team), he's hitting the ball, but right at people. Maybe some will bounce his way, maybe not, but at least he's putting the ball in play, which can always cause chaos for the defense.
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Orange Phenom [14555]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Posts: 23631
Joined: 2004
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I'd be curious to see the averages with and without
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Apr 28, 2025, 3:15 PM
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RISP over that same stretch.
The one thing I find odd regardless is the batting average of balls put in play being dramatically lower. The only things that should really impact this so negatively are bad luck and weaker contact. 7 games is a pretty small sample size so it could just be bad luck / variance, but I'd also be interested to see something like average exit velo numbers (I doubt that stat is kept anywhere) during this stretch vs the rest of the season. Maybe we just aren't making good contact against these higher quality pitchers.
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Mascot [25]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: I'd be curious to see the averages with and without
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Apr 28, 2025, 3:55 PM
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Hitting overall over that span was somewhat better.
PA: 270
AB: 230
RUNS: 26
H: 48
1B: 28
2B: 9
3B: 1
HR: 10
SO: 65
BB: 31
HBP: 6
SF: 0
SH: 3
AVG: 0.209
OBP: 0.315
SLG: 0.387
OPS: 0.702
BABIP: 0.245
SO% 24.1%
BB%: 11.5%
Not great but working against better pitching and three straight top 25 teams will shock the numbers a bit, especially after facing two of the three worst ACC teams in a row. I think they were taking a patient approach against pitching staffs too good to give up walks at the rate of other teams they've faced so far. The exit velo numbers would be incredible, then luck could be directly figured into the stats, but all we have at this point is BABIP, which another caveat is it doesn't include HR's into the stat, because technically they are not a ball in play, which definitely brings down the numbers over that span.
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Orange Elite [5420]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Hitting with RISP; a breakdown
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Apr 28, 2025, 4:03 PM
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That's been the #1 issue, getting guys on base hasn't been a problem, its not bringing them home. Even the runners on 3rd with less than 2 outs has been an issue. Its like that Sun Louisville game took their mojo, I think they were 1-6 scoring the runner from 3rd with less than 2 outs in that game alone. It's insane, but they have to snap out of it if they plan on doing anything this post season. Idc how good the opponents pitching is, there's no excuse for not moving runners and having productive outs with less than 2 outs. Strikeouts have been a huge issue as well.
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Standout [205]
TigerPulse: 98%
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Re: Hitting with RISP; a breakdown
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Apr 28, 2025, 4:35 PM
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Nice objective baseball discussion. In the NC State series, we were unfortunate with some hard hit balls either right at people or great defensive plays. You have to believe some of those start finding holes. Heck everything NC state hit found a hole.
We have very little power in the spots you generally expect power with too many SO's. As you mentioned in RF and DH. 3B looks lost trying to hit off speed and 1B was supposed to have been bringing the power that he had in the BIG. Don't usually see your 1B batting 8th. Listi gets on base, but hit BA keeps dropping.
Not sure why EB decided not to play any freshman, besides pitchers? This is his first class of guys that he recruited, so he must believe in them. Unless he's trying to keep them together I'm at a loss why none have been given a chance. Unfortunately, I think you'll see a few of those guys portal out because they don't think they were given a fair chance to compete and EB will bring in more "older guys" and give them an IRON CLAD NIL deal to play them.
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Game Day Hero [4329]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Hitting with RISP; a breakdown
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Apr 28, 2025, 4:56 PM
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Nice objective baseball discussion. In the NC State series, we were unfortunate with some hard hit balls either right at people or great defensive plays. You have to believe some of those start finding holes. Heck everything NC state hit found a hole.
We have very little power in the spots you generally expect power with too many SO's. As you mentioned in RF and DH. 3B looks lost trying to hit off speed and 1B was supposed to have been bringing the power that he had in the BIG. Don't usually see your 1B batting 8th. Listi gets on base, but hit BA keeps dropping.
Not sure why EB decided not to play any freshman, besides pitchers? This is his first class of guys that he recruited, so he must believe in them. Unless he's trying to keep them together I'm at a loss why none have been given a chance. Unfortunately, I think you'll see a few of those guys portal out because they don't think they were given a fair chance to compete and EB will bring in more "older guys" and give them an IRON CLAD NIL deal to play them.
Supposedly Baseball will be getting 34 full scholarships next fall. That’s got to be huge for some of the out of state players. Hopefully, that helps retain freshmen that didn’t get playing time this season. The Tigers really need to see a talent upgrade at the plate across the lineup. Cam is just about the only legit .325+ type hitter we have and he’s gone in a couple months. I’m not convinced Big10 hitters are worth pursuing. Love Gafney’s glove at 1B though. Atleast I think you got to derate Big10 hitting stats, before you pencil in a strong power hitter or a .300+ average.
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Replies: 12
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