Re: TNET: Tommy Bowden projects Clemson vs. UGA in title game

The biggest mistake we could make in this game, is under estimating Bama on either side of the ball. Confidence is a good feeling and great benefit when playing a great team as Bama has been this past decade, and if we get caught under estimating them, it will get us beat. They are 11-1, we are 12-1. But Bama has the same regular season as we do, they are 11-1 7-1, we are 11-1 7-1. I expect this bowl game will be a repeat of the last two games we have played each other. Our D better be ready and don't give up any easy TDs as they did in the last two games against Bama. My personal opinion is that this will be a tight game all the way to the end, until the clock runs out. Bama and Clemson are the two best teams in the country IMO, and the game play will resemble that. Tiger by 6!!!!

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Agreed about the rivalry feel

Dec 23, 2017, 12:02 PM

I actually think they are basically the opposite of what you said though. Their offense has been very productive in almost every game, but Jalen Hurts has continued the trend from last season of struggling on 3rd downs against top tier defenses. They are actually ranked 2nd nationally in offensive efficiency, 6th in yards per carry, 9th in rush yards per game, 10th in yards per play, 11th in points per game, and 19th in yards per game. Each and every one of those numbers is ranked higher than our offense. Our offense has been much better than their in terms of 3rd down and red zone efficiency, and our schedule has been considerably more difficult than theirs.

Comparing our offenses based upon a few of the advanced statistics that adjust for quality of opponent and also throw out garbage time probably paints a better picture. In terms of S&P+(based on production per play) Bama's offense is ranked 19th and we are 35th. In FEI (based on production per drive) Bama's offense is ranked 6th and we are ranked 18th. One additional advanced stat that jumps out is that Bama has the lowest percentage of drives that end in a turnover in the nation at only 3.6 percent. We are 22nd at 8.4 percent.

Unlike the last two years, our defense is rated better than theirs in nearly all the advanced stats that are adjusted for opponent. Our defense is ranked #1 in defensive efficiency, 2nd nationally in defensive FEI (production per drive), and 2nd nationally in defensive S&P+ (production per play). We are ahead of Bama in each of these, but they are ranked in top 5 in each of these. In the previous two games Bama's defense was ranked #1 nationally in all of these by a large margin, whereas we were somewhere in the top 10.

In terms or the traditional defensive stats that don't adjust for quality of opponent, Bama is first in ppg allowed and we are 2nd. They are 3rd in rush yard per game while we are 14th. However, we lead the nation in rushing TD's allowed with only 5 all year while they are ranked 7th with 8 rush TD's allowed. They are 6th nationally in pass defense and we are 7th nationally. total defense they are 2nd and we are 6th, yards per play allowed they are 1st and we are 4th, we are 1st in sacks and they are 32nd, we are 4th in TFL and they are 40th, and finally we are 5th in 3rd down defense and they are 19th.

I wish I knew how to put all of that information on here on a chart so that it wouldn't be so clunky and difficult to read. Regardless, the differences between this year's teams an last year's teams is that we have reversed roles in many ways. Our offense is worse this year while their offense is better, but overall their offense is only slightly more productive than ours. Our defense is better this year while theirs is worse, but overall our defense is only slightly better than theirs.

The couple of areas where the two teams are very different are the reliability of our kicking game where Bama has a huge advantage as well as in the number of sacks and TFL where we have been considerably more disruptive.

I think this game will be another classic hard fought game than is decided in the final quarter, but I don't think it will be nearly as high scoring. I think the difference will once again Jalen Hurts inability to convert 3rd downs and we end up winning something like 24-20 or 21-17.

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TNET: Tommy Bowden projects Clemson vs. UGA in title game

So anyone think if he's right that he'll come to TNET to

Agree with TB and hope he's right on this call!***

Sorry, he's wrong.