The Six Scenarios for Clemson to get into the Playoffs

Nov 21, 2022, 12:40 PM

I saw a post or two earlier listing all the different things Clemson needs to have happen in order to make the playoffs. The bad thing is that Clemson still likely does need help from other teams to get into the playoffs. The good thing is that there are several teams able to help Clemson and Clemson does not need help from ALL of them – just a combination of two.

Assuming Clemson wins out over both Carolinas (South and North), Clemson only needs two other games to go our way. ANY combination of TWO of the following would put the Good Guys in:

- UGa beats LSU - (Alternatively: Ga Tech upsets (shocks) UGa AND LSU beat UGa)
- USC loses either game: ND or Pac 12 Title game (probably vs Oregon)
- TCU loses Big 12 Title game (probably vs. Kansas St).
- Ohio State/Michigan winner loses Big 10 title game BADLY

That creates six scenarios (below) in which Clemson gets into the playoffs as long Clemson takes care of its own business. Note, there are other possibilities, however:
1. I am not assuming how the CFP committee would pick in choosing between a one loss ACC Champ Clemson vs. a one loss Big 12 Champ TCU. They could go either way, which means there are other possibilities beyond just the six scenarios below.
2. I am assuming that since Southern Cal (USC) is currently ahead of Clemson in the CFP rankings that USC would stay there if both teams won out; however, we don’t really know that with certainty.
3. I am assuming that the Ohio State/Michigan winner would get into the playoffs with a close loss in the Big Ten title game – but not if they get their doors blown off with a terrible, noncompetitive loss.
4. I am assuming UGa gets into the CFP regardless of the SEC Title game outcome if (when) UGa beats Ga Tech.

With that said, any combination of two (or more) of the above outcomes and Clemson is in IF Clemson wins out. Obviously, some of these are more likely to occur (UGa over LSU) than others. For example:

Scenario 1: UGa beats LSU. USC loses either game: ND or Pac 12 Title game (probably vs Oregon). (Of these scenarios, this one seems the most likely scenario in my humble opinion.)

Scenario 2: UGa beats LSU. TCU loses Big 12 Title game (probably vs. Kansas St).

Scenario 3: UGa beats LSU. Ohio State/Mich winner loses Big 10 title game BADLY

Scenario 4: USC loses either game. TCU loses Big 12 title game.

Scenario 5: USC loses either game. Ohio State/Michigan winner loses Big 10 title game BADLY

Scenario 6: TCU loses Big 12 Title game. Ohio State/Michigan winner loses Big 10 title game BADLY

There is an Alternative Scenario 7 – but it is so unlikely that it is would hardly worth hoping for:
Scenario 7: Ga Tech upsets UGa. Texas A&M upsets LSU. LSU beats UGa.
(My personal favorite scenario – but far too unlikely to occur.)