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Replies: 63
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110%er [6322]
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Playoff hopes
Nov 13, 2022, 10:12 AM
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Chaos would have to happen for us to get in.
South Carolina has to beat Tennessee.
TCU has to lose one game.
USC has to lose to UCLA or ND.
Michigan has to lose to Illinois and Ohio State. Or Ohio State has to lose to Maryland and Michigan.
Typing this out was depressing. Can’t see all this happening though.
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All-TigerNet [12942]
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All we need is the following…
Nov 13, 2022, 10:16 AM
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1. UGA and OSU win out
2. USC lose to either UCLA. ND, or in PAC title game.
— then you have 3 teams fighting for 2 spots…
and TCU would still have @ Baylor and Big 12 title game.
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110%er [6322]
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Re: All we need is the following…
Nov 13, 2022, 11:04 AM
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Clemson will not get in over an undefeated TCU or a one loss Tennessee and Michigan.
We definitely need more help.
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CU Guru [1681]
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Re: All we need is the following…
Nov 13, 2022, 11:19 AM
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From CFP website with my edits in ():
When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:
Championships won (Clemson over TN/MI)
Strength of schedule (Need FSU, UNC and ND to keep winning, which eliminates USC, but likely better than MI/TCU)
Head‐to‐head competition (NA)
Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory) NA
Absolutely need a TCU loss, USC loss, and OSU and UGA to remain undefeated.
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Orange Blooded [4365]
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Re: All we need is the following…
Nov 13, 2022, 4:02 PM
[ in reply to Re: All we need is the following… ] |
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I think Clemson could get in over a one loss Michigan ( if they lose to Illinois or get stomped by OSU)
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Legend [16058]
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110%er [6877]
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BAMA got in without winning division.***
Nov 13, 2022, 6:39 PM
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Orange Blooded [4483]
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Re: BAMA got in without winning division.***
Nov 13, 2022, 6:43 PM
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That was BAMA and Lil Nicky lobbying atrowing his ight around. UT doesn't have that kimd of clout as of yet.
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Orange Blooded [4947]
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Re: BAMA got in without winning division.***
Nov 13, 2022, 10:19 PM
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There wasn’t another 1 loss champion in contention.
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All-TigerNet [10901]
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All-Conference [415]
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we would get in over 1 loss Tenn or 1 loss Michigan
Nov 13, 2022, 4:23 PM
[ in reply to Re: All we need is the following… ] |
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provided we are conf champs and neither of them are.
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Legend [16058]
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Agreed***
Nov 13, 2022, 4:24 PM
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All-In [36207]
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Orange Blooded [4048]
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Re: All we need is the following…
Nov 13, 2022, 8:29 PM
[ in reply to Re: All we need is the following… ] |
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Clemson wins out and any of the following teams which are TCU, USC, and LSU, lose they are in.
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Orange Blooded [3728]
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Hall of Famer [23100]
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We'll see
Nov 13, 2022, 10:18 AM
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It looks bleak, BUT , UP TO THIS POINT in the short CFP history,have they left out a one loss conference Champion to put in a division/conference LOSER ? ESPN/FOX doesn't make the rules.
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All-TigerNet [13421]
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Re: We'll see
Nov 13, 2022, 4:02 PM
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If they truly hold to what they say the ultimate goal is, which is to put the best 4 teams in the playoffs, then being a one-loss conference champion may not matter if they don't really consider you one of the best 4 teams.
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Orange Blooded [4483]
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Re: We'll see
Nov 13, 2022, 6:45 PM
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They jave said in the past that conference champions r preferred.
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CU Guru [1754]
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Re: Playoff hopes
Nov 13, 2022, 10:20 AM
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Lost me at the coots beating UT. 
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CU Medallion [56821]
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Re: Playoff hopes
Nov 13, 2022, 1:55 PM
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It’s all about match ups.
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CU Guru [1537]
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Re: Playoff hopes
Nov 13, 2022, 10:20 AM
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I could easily see USC and TCU losing.
It would be interesting to see how the committee views a one loss ACC champ vs a 1 loss big 10 team without a conference championship.
My bet is we finish 5th in that scenario, but conference championships are supposed to carry weight.
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110%er [6322]
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Re: Playoff hopes
Nov 13, 2022, 11:06 AM
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Our issue will be that our one loss was a blowout to an unbranded team. Michigan and Ohio State would have one loss to an undefeated playoff team instead.
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CU Guru [1669]
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Re: Playoff hopes
Nov 13, 2022, 11:11 AM
[ in reply to Re: Playoff hopes ] |
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If that scenario plays out, Clemson and Vols will both be 11-1. I agree that it would be stretch to assume Tigers get in over them. The difference will be Clemson will have an opportunity to defeat a hranked Tar Hill team for a championship. That is what I believe would push Clemson past Tennessee.
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All-TigerNet [13421]
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Re: Playoff hopes
Nov 13, 2022, 4:11 PM
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TN is #5 now and after the OSU-MI game, they will slip into the top 4. The only scenario where Clemson could leapfrog TN is if they lose one of their remaining games to SC or Vandy.
Now you tell me, what are the odds of that happening?
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All-TigerNet [12233]
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The required chaos is doomed from the start with needing
Nov 13, 2022, 10:22 AM
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USuC to beat Tennessee... I cannot see any realistic scenario, short of a massive illness benching Tennessee's offense, where that happens.
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110%er [6322]
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Re: The required chaos is doomed from the start with needing
Nov 13, 2022, 11:08 AM
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Tennessee is going to kill them. We know that. And they will get in over us at 11-1. We would need TCU and USC to lose. We would also need tOSU or Mich to have 2 losses.
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All-TigerNet [13421]
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CU Medallion [51528]
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South Carolina has to beat…
Nov 13, 2022, 10:41 AM
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No thanks.
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Orange Blooded [4365]
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Re: South Carolina has to beat…
Nov 13, 2022, 4:05 PM
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drummer,
If you really had to chose between USC losing to Tenn or us getting into the CFP, would you chose USC losing ??
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CU Medallion [51528]
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USC is in California. HTH***
Nov 14, 2022, 10:08 AM
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110%er [7459]
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You are way off base with your assumptions
Nov 13, 2022, 11:23 AM
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of non champ 11-1 teams getting in over 12-1 conf champs. ESPN and Fox don’t get to decide - listen to the committee, look at the 8 year playoff history - it has never happened. I personally don’t like our chances against UNC so this will probably be moot. The new 12 team format that is proposed even shows how much those in charge value conference championships which is why the top 4 champs will get a bye.
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All-TigerNet [13421]
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Re: You are way off base with your assumptions
Nov 13, 2022, 4:18 PM
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You are correct in the way they will look at conference champions when they expand the playoffs. However, for the 4-team playoff, they have always said their #1 criteria is to try and make sure they have the 4 best teams in the country competing. If that is true, there is no way a 1-loss non-conference champion Tennessee loses out to a 1-loss ACC Champion. And if we need any evidence of this, look at where UNC and Clemson are ranked right now by the committee compared to Tennessee.
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Starter [377]
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Re: Playoff hopes
Nov 13, 2022, 11:25 AM
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There is no way a 1 loss conference champion Clemson gets left out unless TCU runs the table and has a conference championship or USC runs the table and wins it’s conference…if both lose and we win out we are in…if TCU loses and we win out and USC wins out then it will be between us and USC and if they beat ND then they are probably in…a one loss Michigan team amd a one loss tenn team will both not get in over a one loss Clemson conference champion…period…
The sec is getting two in…the big 10
Champion is in…the 4th spot is between us Michigan/osu loser and any other one loss
Conference champion…as of now that could only be USC or TCU…
I like our odds as long as we win out!!!
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All-TigerNet [13421]
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Re: Playoff hopes
Nov 13, 2022, 4:26 PM
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A lot could depend on the competitiveness of the OSU-MI game. If it is a close one, then both teams are still very much in play.
I could actually see the committee loving to put together the great rematches where OSU-MI play again and TN-GA play again in the semis. Think about it, the only losses any of these teams would have going into the playoffs would be to each other.
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Letterman [257]
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It’s funny that you think an undefeated USC would
Nov 13, 2022, 6:34 PM
[ in reply to Re: Playoff hopes ] |
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“probably” get in over us.
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Orange Blooded [4365]
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Re: Playoff hopes
Nov 13, 2022, 3:59 PM
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Leon,
The SEC champs (GA) and the BIG champs (OSU) are in.
I don't see how Tenn gets left out - neither USC nor Vandy can beat them.
HOWEVER:
I think TCU WILL lose one - their schedule is brutal from here on out.
I think USC WILL lose one - UCLA and ND are capable of beating them.
I think that if Michigan loses to Illinois OR OSU they will be out - especially if they lose to Illinois or if OSU really hammers their guts out - both of which are real possibilities.
It's a lot to ask, but it is not quite chaos. I am still holding out hope (but I am not betting the house)
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Legend [16058]
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UT can't even win their division much less the conference...
Nov 13, 2022, 4:23 PM
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Not sure how you put them in over a 12-1 conference champ.
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All-TigerNet [13421]
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Re: UT can't even win their division much less the conference...
Nov 13, 2022, 4:30 PM
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TN is a lock if they beat SC and Vandy since they are #5 right now and will move into the Top 4 after the OSU-MI game.
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Rock Defender [65]
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Re: UT can't even win their division much less the conference...
Nov 13, 2022, 4:42 PM
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I'll just point out that in the past one loss teams sitting at home on championship weekend have been jumped by teams that one a championship. It is something the committee values highly.
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All-TigerNet [13421]
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Re: UT can't even win their division much less the conference...
Nov 13, 2022, 6:38 PM
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They value putting in the 4 best teams more than that.
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All-TigerNet [10901]
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Orange Blooded [4365]
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Legend [16058]
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All-In [44000]
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Why does Tennessee have to lose to the Coots?
Nov 13, 2022, 4:18 PM
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Us as a one loss conference champion trumps Tennessee being a one loss team without a conference championship.
I also don’t agree that USC has to lose for us to get in ahead of them.
I don’t see the Ohio State vs. Michigan loser getting in over us, again because they wouldn’t have a conference championship.
All of this assumes that we finish 12-1 with an ACC championship.
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All-TigerNet [13421]
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Re: Why does Tennessee have to lose to the Coots?
Nov 13, 2022, 4:34 PM
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I guess I will repeat myself. TN is #5 right NOW. If they beat SC and Vandy they will move into the Top 4 after the OSU-MI game so unless they lose another game, they are a lock.
Unless you believe somehow they will drop from #4 after winning out which just does not seem at all feasible.
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Rock Defender [65]
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Re: Why does Tennessee have to lose to the Coots?
Nov 13, 2022, 4:44 PM
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So will I, Tennessee's ranking doesn't matter right now. I could be dead wrong, but history tells us all we need to happen is Oregon or UCLA win out... As well as us of course.
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All-TigerNet [13421]
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Re: Why does Tennessee have to lose to the Coots?
Nov 13, 2022, 6:52 PM
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The polls don't matter but the playoff rankings do since it is the committee doing the ranking. If they felt other teams were better positioned than TN they would be ranking them ahead of TN now and not later. Once a team gets ranked in the Top 4 this late in the season it is usually only knocked out if they lose.
I know you said a conference champ has leaped over a non-conference champ in the past after the non-conference champ was ranked ahead of them the week before the championship game, but I think that has been a rarity but happy for you to point out to me the times it has happened because I don't honestly know. It might have happened when Ohio State got passed over one time but that might be the only example I could come up with and I'm not even sure if that is accurate.
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All-TigerNet [13421]
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Re: Why does Tennessee have to lose to the Coots?
Nov 13, 2022, 7:11 PM
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Let me give you an example of why I don't think the committee is looking as closely at conference championship games. Look at the CFP committee rankings last week. We clinched a spot in the ACC Championship game and Alabama is eliminated from playing in the SEC Championship game and they have 2 losses. However, the ranking this week has ALA one spot ahead of us which seems to indicate that Clemson playing for a conference championship is not really carrying much weight with the committee.
Let's see where they rank us and Alabama this week. If Alabama remains ahead of us this week then I am more convinced the committee is focused on getting the 4 best teams in the playoff regardless of whether they are a conference champion or not. Otherwise, they will be pulling Clemson ahead of Alabama now rather than later.
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Rock Defender [65]
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Re: Why does Tennessee have to lose to the Coots?
Nov 13, 2022, 7:16 PM
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Making it to a Conference Championship doesn't matter, winning does. A 12 win conference champion has only been left out of the playoff 1 time. That was 1 loss Ohio State, for undefeated Notre Dame. I'm not saying you're wrong, you may be right. History implies that we would get the nod, crazier things have happened. However I don't want to go to the playoffs, and don't think we deserve it.
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All-TigerNet [13421]
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Re: Why does Tennessee have to lose to the Coots?
Nov 13, 2022, 7:29 PM
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I think the reason for that is in the past the 4 conference champions have been considered the 4 best teams for the playoffs. However, the way they are ranking teams right now tells me they don't believe the ACC Champion will be one of the 4 best teams to put in the playoffs. The setup now is that 2 SEC teams will get in, as they have the last 2 years, and then the OSU/MI winner for sure, leaving TCU, USC or Oregon as the most likely next slots. Assuming MI falls to OSU we have to see how far they drop. If they keep them ahead of us then that is another sign the ACC championship is not going to matter much.
Right now the committee believes there are 9 teams better than Clemson so the question is will 5 of those teams fall, as we rise, in time for us to make it to the Top 4? I think that might be a tall order the way things are stacking up right now.
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All-TigerNet [13421]
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Re: Why does Tennessee have to lose to the Coots?
Nov 13, 2022, 7:34 PM
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Sorry, SEC 2 teams just last year, not 2 of the last 3. I keep remembering GA and ALA together but that was a few years apart.
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All-TigerNet [13421]
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Re: Why does Tennessee have to lose to the Coots?
Nov 13, 2022, 7:37 PM
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And take Oregon out as I forgot WA beat them this week.
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Rock Defender [65]
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Re: Why does Tennessee have to lose to the Coots?
Nov 13, 2022, 7:40 PM
[ in reply to Re: Why does Tennessee have to lose to the Coots? ] |
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My bad, I missed this one. There have been similar situations, however I hope we don't make it. I think Oregon wins out, and we do make it.
1) UGA
2) Mich
3) TCU
4) Clem
That's what I see happening.
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Rock Defender [65]
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Re: Why does Tennessee have to lose to the Coots?
Nov 13, 2022, 7:40 PM
[ in reply to Re: Why does Tennessee have to lose to the Coots? ] |
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My bad, I missed this one. There have been similar situations, however I hope we don't make it. I think Oregon wins out, and we do make it.
1) UGA
2) Mich
3) TCU
4) Clem
That's what I see happening.
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Rock Defender [65]
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Re: Why does Tennessee have to lose to the Coots?
Nov 13, 2022, 7:40 PM
[ in reply to Re: Why does Tennessee have to lose to the Coots? ] |
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My bad, I missed this one. There have been similar situations, however I hope we don't make it. I think Oregon wins out, and we do make it.
1) UGA
2) Mich
3) TCU
4) Clem
That's what I see happening.
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Rock Defender [65]
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Re: Why does Tennessee have to lose to the Coots?
Nov 13, 2022, 7:40 PM
[ in reply to Re: Why does Tennessee have to lose to the Coots? ] |
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My bad, I missed this one. There have been similar situations, however I hope we don't make it. I think Oregon wins out, and we do make it.
1) UGA
2) Mich
3) TCU
4) Clem
That's what I see happening.
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All-TigerNet [13421]
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Re: Why does Tennessee have to lose to the Coots?
Nov 13, 2022, 7:57 PM
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Wow, you are calling MI beating OSU. That would make it even more interesting but I don't really know how far OSU would fall and the committee seems to love them.
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Rock Defender [65]
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All-TigerNet [13421]
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Re: Why does Tennessee have to lose to the Coots?
Nov 13, 2022, 7:55 PM
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Yes, I corrected that previously.
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All-Conference [405]
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Re: Playoff hopes
Nov 13, 2022, 7:35 PM
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Sounds like basically what your saying is we have about as much a chance to make the CFB as a 1 legged man in a butt kicking contest.
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All-TigerNet [13421]
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Re: Playoff hopes
Nov 13, 2022, 7:38 PM
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We made it in after losing to Pitt in 2016 because a lot of things fell our way but will lightning strike twice?
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1st Rounder [626]
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Re: Playoff hopes
Nov 13, 2022, 8:15 PM
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32 teams have been selected for the CFP
26 teams were undefeated or 1-loss conference P5 champions
2 teams were 1-loss P5 teams not in their CCG
(OSU ‘16 & Bama ‘17)
2 teams lost their CCG
(UGA ‘21 & ND ‘20)
1 team was undefeated independent
(ND ‘18)
1 team was undefeated non P5
(Cinn ‘21)
1 loss P5 Champ was left out twice
(Baylor ‘14 & OSU ‘18)
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Legend [17529]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 14126
Joined: 10/24/10
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I don't want UGA
Nov 13, 2022, 8:24 PM
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Do not see this '22 squad as playoff caliber. We'll have our hands full with Bama outside of playoffs.
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Letterman [290]
TigerPulse: 75%
Posts: 440
Joined: 2/8/21
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Re: Playoff hopes
Nov 13, 2022, 10:11 PM
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Texas (AT HOME) was our best hope of slowing down TCU and they couldn't score a single point on offense.
At this point, it looks like UGA, TCU, and OSU/Mich are a 100% lock. Will be interesting to see how the rest shakes out if a bunch of teams finish at 11-1 or 12-1 after CCG.
Clemson needs to focus on Miami. The task at hand.
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