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Playmaker [371]
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NFL PATs
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Jan 27, 2025, 12:25 PM
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I don't understand going for 2 unless it's the 4th quarter and your back is against the wall.
By going for 2 in the 3rd quarter last week, it cost the Ravens a tie against the Bills at the end of regulation.
Last night, it doomed the Bills. Walk through the score. If the Bills had just kicked PATs after they scored when it was 21-16, the score would have been 31-31 the last time the Bills got the ball in the 4th quarter.
I think the "analytics" guys are dead wrong about this aspect of the game.
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Hall of Famer [8447]
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Re: NFL PATs
Jan 27, 2025, 12:27 PM
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What was also notable is that they made the PAT to get it to 21-17. But there was an offsides, so they accepted the penalty, moved the ball to the 1, and went for two. They took the point off the scoreboard. That is VERY rare to see.
Josh Allen has been unstoppable for 1-2 yards all season, but KC figured it out last night. That tush-push play failed about 4 times and it was the difference in the game (along with the PATs as you noted).
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110%er [3814]
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Re: NFL PATs
Jan 27, 2025, 12:34 PM
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I know it's unlikely they would've held the Chiefs to 21, but I can't argue with trying to get within 3 points at that point.
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Orange Phenom [14624]
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Part of the math on this that you may not be accounting for is that
Jan 27, 2025, 1:26 PM
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getting to OT only gives you a roughly 50/50 chance of winning the game. The computer models can sim this stuff on out and properly account for that - at least much more accurately than we can.
Also, the NFL XP% since they moved the kick back 15 yards has hovered around 94%. Buffalo's kicker made 92% this year. The odds of making both XPs at 94% per kick are 88%. At 92% the odds to make both drop below 85%. I think many people just assume XPs are always going to be made when they compare XPs to going for 2, but around 1 in 7 or 8 times the Bills kicker just misses an XP to lose the game. It's kind of funny because the kicker would get all the heat for that, but the coach gets all of the heat for a failed 2pt conversion.
In the case of the Bills, they were going for 2 to get within 3 pts (potentially 21-18) at the 2nd of the 2nd quarter. I get where you're coming from on this one. I don't know what the analytics say, but the 2nd quarter is very early to be going for 2. If it's correct in that situation you could probably make an argument for just going for 2 nearly every single time.
In the case of the Ravens, they were going for 2 to tie the game with about 1 min left in the 3rd quarter. I think this is a very different situation than the Bills and it 100% makes sense to go for two and the tie. Kicking the XP to make the score 21-20 can't add much EV in that situation. I think only hindsight would suggest otherwise.
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Hall of Famer [8447]
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Re: Part of the math on this that you may not be accounting for is that
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Jan 27, 2025, 1:40 PM
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You’re forgetting that he had already made one of the extra points. They took it off the board after he made it to go for two because of a penalty.
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Head Coach [942]
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Re: Part of the math on this that you may not be accounting for is that
Jan 27, 2025, 2:15 PM
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The anal-lytics are probably being created from Vegas.
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Game Changer [1863]
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Orange Phenom [14624]
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It's not the percentage itself
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Jan 27, 2025, 2:53 PM
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I've just seen alot of things in the past to suggest people treat sending a game to OT differently than something of nearly equal value. If the chance of succeeding on a 2pt conversion is roughly 50/50, there isn't a substantial difference between going for 2 to win a game at the end of regulation vs attempting the XP to send it to OT. You're going to win the game nearly the same amount of the time choosing either option.
Basically, there seems to be extra value given to prolonging a game vs winning/losing on the spot.
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Game Changer [1863]
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Had not thought about from that perspective only from prolonging game****
Jan 27, 2025, 10:17 PM
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Orange Blooded [2245]
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Re: NFL PATs
Jan 27, 2025, 2:53 PM
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I was thinking the same thing. 31-31, and on 4th near the end of the game, the Bills would have punted instead of going for it. So, KC would have had time, but the Bills would have still been in the game. Just don't see the reason for going for 2 that early. Coaches are paid too much $ to be making dumb decisions like that.
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Varsity [119]
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Re: NFL PATs
Jan 27, 2025, 2:59 PM
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Or if you're Dan Campbell you just go for 2 every play.
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All-In [11073]
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Re: NFL PATs
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Jan 27, 2025, 6:15 PM
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If you made millions to coach a team you could answer that.
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National Champion [7875]
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Yep I hate when teams chase points.
Jan 27, 2025, 6:47 PM
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But the Bills doubled down and chased 1st downs as well last night instead of attempting field goals. Their coaching was highly suspect throughout the entirety of the game.
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Paw Master [16814]
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Re: NFL PATs
Jan 27, 2025, 6:49 PM
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I mostly agree! Tu
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Playmaker [371]
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Great Discussion
Jan 28, 2025, 1:34 PM
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Thanks for everyone's input.
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Tiger Spirit [10096]
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Agree. Not very fundamentally sound.***
Jan 28, 2025, 1:38 PM
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Game Changer [1914]
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Re: NFL PATs
Jan 28, 2025, 1:51 PM
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Times I think 2 point attempts make sense.
1. To tie the game in the last seconds to get at least get into overtime.
2. To turn a two point lead into a 3 point lead so you can't be beat with a field goal. If a TD and PAT kick only put's you ahead by 2 then going for the 2 point conversion to get the lead to 3 makes total sense.
3. You have a kicker that might as well not be a kicker because they suck so badly for whatever reason.
The first two scenarios to me don't occur until the last few possessions of the 4th quarter. Other than that I am a fan of always taking the easiest points. Taking low hanging fruit has won games more often than not I would wager. We can probaly go through alot of games Gambling a 6 point lead to go for 2 and potentially win by being ahead by 8 does not really make sense to me. Some might call that a gutsy play to win...it's also a great way to lose. Take the easy points every time until your hand is forced.
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