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Replies: 16
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Associate AD [1024]
TigerPulse: 93%
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Ohio State - 6.5 but Texas 51% chance to win, what does that mean?
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Jan 10, 2025, 1:47 PM
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I don't sport bet online, i realize the -6.5 means Ohio State is favored by a touchdown, why would they say texas has 51% to win.....that seems like classic double talk.
I see it constantly in sports betting games on the espn ticker at the bottom of the screen where the favored team has a lower % to win the game. what am i missing here how is that not double speak.
Ohio State wins 31-21: Vegas " well we knew they were the better team, basically a slam dunk thats why they got -6.5"
Texas wins: 31-24: Vegas: "well thats why we gave texas a slightly higher chance to win the game, we had a feeling it may trend this way"
uh huh
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Orange Phenom [14588]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Vegas clearly doesn't think Texas has a 51% chance to win
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Jan 10, 2025, 1:50 PM
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Not sure where you are getting that 51%
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TigerNet Elite [77085]
TigerPulse: 100%
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that's an eSECpn "metric"
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Jan 10, 2025, 2:02 PM
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Trying to reassure their Conference fans that they have a chance.
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Legend [6780]
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Game Day Hero [4197]
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Re: Ohio State - 6.5 but Texas 51% chance to win, what does that mean?
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Jan 10, 2025, 1:52 PM
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The 51% is the football power index (FPI) win probability. It is calculated by a computer and is not a part of the spread calculation.
Does seem odd though that OSU is a TD favorite but the FPI likes Texas. Could be Texas' win over Michigan who beat OSU.
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Paw Warrior [4654]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Is that 51% a fan poll on eSpECn?***
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Jan 10, 2025, 1:53 PM
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Clemson Icon [24158]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Ohio State - 6.5 but Texas 51% chance to win, what does that mean?
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Jan 10, 2025, 1:54 PM
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OSU -6.5 is the spread that the casinos are offering.
Texas 51% chance of victory is according to ESPN's proprietary Matchup Predictor.
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Clemson Icon [24158]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Joined: 2007
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Re: Ohio State - 6.5 but Texas 51% chance to win, what does that mean?
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Jan 10, 2025, 1:56 PM
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [102381]
TigerPulse: 100%
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That's Vegas balancing the bets.***
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Jan 10, 2025, 1:56 PM
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Solid Orange [1395]
TigerPulse: 96%
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Re: Ohio State - 6.5 but Texas 51% chance to win, what does that mean?
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Jan 10, 2025, 2:15 PM
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That means that ESPN’s FPI is looking at Ohio State’s total body of work while betters are looking at how Ohio State has performed in the previous two game. That’s the whole story
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CU Medallion [20799]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Joined: 2012
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*** ^^^THIS ^^^***
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Jan 10, 2025, 3:19 PM
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Asst Coach [840]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Ohio State - 6.5 but Texas 51% chance to win, what does that mean?
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Jan 10, 2025, 2:56 PM
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Ohio is favored too high. It start at 1.5 points and quickly went to 6.5 and still 83% of the bettors and money are being placed on Ohio State. I’m not sure Ohio will cover the large spread. They are good though.
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Solid Orange [1389]
TigerPulse: 84%
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Re: Ohio State - 6.5 but Texas 51% chance to win, what does that mean?
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Jan 10, 2025, 3:13 PM
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Ohio State will beat Texas by 2-3 TDs
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1st Rounder [692]
TigerPulse: 95%
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Re: Ohio State - 6.5 but Texas 51% chance to win, what does that mean?
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Jan 10, 2025, 3:05 PM
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It means Vegas is smarter than espn
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Game Changer [1811]
TigerPulse: 99%
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Re: Ohio State - 6.5 but Texas 51% chance to win, what does that mean?
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Jan 10, 2025, 3:20 PM
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Texas has basically a home field advantage.
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Orange Phenom [14588]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Nah. It's gonna be 32 degrees
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Jan 10, 2025, 3:38 PM
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And OSU fans travel.
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National Champion [7139]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Ohio State - 6.5 but Texas 51% chance to win, what does that mean?
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Jan 10, 2025, 3:19 PM
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All Vegas cares about is having a balanced book. They don't care which team wins or by how much, so long as the book is balanced at close of betting.
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Replies: 16
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