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Legend [17520]
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NFL QB Drafts - Art or Science? So Many Variables
May 15, 2022, 10:33 PM
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Just taking a look at last seven NFL drafts. Read some pre-draft fluff from so-called SME's about 2018 draft being outstanding with Darnold and Rosen having high upsides. Also read 2017 QB class was considered weak (L. Zierlein, NFL; Kiper, ESPN).
Not sold on most of NFL teams or media having competent QB evaluation capability ... any thoughts on recent drafts?
2016 - Goff #1 / Wentz #2 / Paxton Lynch #26 / 4 other QB's / Prescott #135
2017 - Trubisky #2 / Mahomes #10 / Watson #12 / media reported poor QB class
2018 - Mayfield #1 / Darnold #3 / Allen #7 / Rosen #10 / Jackson #32
2019 - Murray #1 / Jones #6 / Haskins #15 / Lock #42
2020 - Burrow #1 / Tagavaiola #5 / Herbert #6 / Love #26 / Hurts #53 / Eason #122
2021 - TL16 #1 / Wilson #2 / Lance #3 / Fields #11 / Jones #15 / Trask #64 / Mond #66 / Mills #67
2022 - Pickett #20 / Ridder #74 / Willis #86 / Corral #94
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All-In [43989]
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All I can say is that in this year’s draft
May 15, 2022, 10:58 PM
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it seems that the Steelers taking Pickett at #20 was an emotional decision. That was way too high for him IMO.
Conversely, I think the Falcons made a great pick getting Ridder all the way down at #74.
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Legend [17520]
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Re: All I can say is that in this year’s draft
May 15, 2022, 11:23 PM
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I like Ridder's upside and potentially Corral's after Rhule is let go.
To your point Judge Keller® Pickett was 25-39 with 2 TD's vs Tigers in 2021. Good but not mind blowing. But Howell outplayed Pickett in 2019 & 2020 until UNC RB & WR talent left for NFL in 2021. It'll be interesting to see them compete along with TL16 and more over next decade.
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All-In [43989]
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Howell’s stock really dropped after his last season.
May 16, 2022, 10:24 AM
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I agree that some of it was due to losing key members of his supporting cast.
I think Howell has more upside than Pickett. Both can be good QBs, but I don’t think either was first round material.
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CU Medallion [64961]
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I don't see "Star" in either one of their futures. I believe
May 16, 2022, 11:33 AM
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in BOTH cases, the franchises that took them will be happy if they just turn out to be "serviceable" players, along the lines of a Brian Hoyer.
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Legend [17753]
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Yes.***
May 15, 2022, 11:05 PM
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All-In [46430]
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Re: NFL QB Drafts - Art or Science? So Many Variables
May 15, 2022, 11:44 PM
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Just imagine if we would have had Trevor stay last season & then take his covid season this year. We would have been undefeated going into the playoffs last season & we would win a National Championship this season.
If we would have had Hunter Renfrow stay for 3 covid years we might have won 3 more National Championships.
3rd and Renfrow became a real crutch that the Raiders stole!
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CU Guru [1414]
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Re: NFL QB Drafts - Art or Science? So Many Variables
May 16, 2022, 9:04 AM
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or Trevor would have caught the injury bug we had and potentially ruined his career.
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CU Medallion [64961]
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LOL. 1/3 of that 2017 QB class WAS weak! I always say,
May 16, 2022, 9:26 AM
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Trubisky's agent should win "Agent of the Decade" for the predraft snow job he pulled to get Trubisky drafted #2 Overall, first QB taken. Ahead of Watson and Mahomes? Siriusly? C'MON, MAN!
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Orange Blooded [2695]
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Re: NFL QB Drafts - Art or Science? So Many Variables
May 16, 2022, 11:29 AM
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Traditionally speaking, I'd say situational vs Art or Science.
If a 1st round pick ends up at a dysfunctional organization (Jags, Jets, Lions), you're going to see more bust potential vs someone ending up with a functional place (Steelers, Chiefs, GB).
I've only seen a couple times recently where a QB ended up in a place where success has been hard to find and they still hit their all star potential (DW4 - HOU, Herbert - Chargers, Allen - Bills)
Usually, you need a good combination of Ownership/Organization + HC to compete for SBs.
I'm glad TL16 got a fresh start with Doug Peterson because who knows how he would've turned out with Meyer.
I know some folks weren't big on him but I think the Jags got a potentially good pick up with him -- I get a vibe they'll gel wayyyy better together than Meyer + TL
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Legend [17520]
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Re: NFL QB Drafts - Art or Science? So Many Variables
May 16, 2022, 12:05 PM
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glennjamin182® Well said all the way around GJ ...
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Orange Blooded [3615]
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Re: NFL QB Drafts - Art or Science? So Many Variables
May 16, 2022, 11:32 AM
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#1 2020
#2 2017
#3 2021
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