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Replies: 28
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110%er [3638]
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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Let's just toss out the 4 years of compounding... Time to party.***
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Jul 11, 2024, 11:26 AM
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110%er [3638]
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would you rather we keep going?***
Jul 11, 2024, 11:29 AM
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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Did we ever find out what happened to "transitory"? 4 years...one decline.
Jul 11, 2024, 11:56 AM
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Just a bit pessimistic to be honest.
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Clemson Conqueror [11753]
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Re: Let's just toss out the 4 years of compounding... Time to party.***
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Jul 11, 2024, 11:56 AM
[ in reply to Let's just toss out the 4 years of compounding... Time to party.*** ] |
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Friend of mine explained it like this.
If you gained 90 lbs 4 years ago, 60 lbs 3 years ago and 40 lbs 2 years ago...don't start bragging about getting your weight under control because you've only gained 15 lbs this year.
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CU Medallion [20802]
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Re: Let's just toss out the 4 years of compounding... Time to party.***
Jul 11, 2024, 12:24 PM
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Your friend is correct.
But your weight was artificially low. You had been on weight loss drugs too long (monetary policy pre-COVID); then you wanted to lose more so you got some experimental stuff in Mexico (COVID stimulus; 0% fed funds rate); then you got divorced (receptionist in Mexico was your downfall) - and in your new reality you had to go off most of the meds because of the long term cost; you then gained a lot of weight very fast and now it’s stabilized and will take a while to lose; but you’re probably not ever going to get back to even your pre-Mexico weight…you might get near it though and still be the best looking one in town.
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Ultimate Tiger [37770]
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Ultimate Tiger [34957]
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Except that it's not...the only thing worse than inflation is deflation!!...
Jul 11, 2024, 12:30 PM
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a nice low inflation is what we need.
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110%er [3638]
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TigerNet Icon [152255]
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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Not at all... Stalled some spec house sales in the late '80s. I think it's more
Jul 11, 2024, 12:13 PM
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about the dramatic swing from near zero to 9 in such a short period.
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TigerNet Icon [152255]
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You mean the swing that happened across the planet, and far worse in
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Jul 11, 2024, 12:16 PM
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85-90% of countries? If it just happened in the US, you might have a point. But since it was a systemic global supply chain issue that bent every country over with no lube, what do you reckon your actual complaint is? Because by any reasonable account, Biden and the Fed managed inflation in the US far better than most other world leaders.
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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I think a number of major corporations used Covid as an opportunity for
Jul 11, 2024, 12:23 PM
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a 'money grab', irrespective of their actual labor/material issues... The FED played along.
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TigerNet Icon [152255]
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That is an absolute truth, and we'll probably never know the extent of
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Jul 11, 2024, 12:27 PM
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that money grab. I don't know what the Fed could really have done besides react to it though.
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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React, yea, but not so dramatically... but Banksters gonna get theirs.***
Jul 11, 2024, 12:30 PM
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CU Medallion [18983]
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And pretty much every economist agrees Trump's policies would bring it back
Jul 11, 2024, 4:29 PM
[ in reply to You mean the swing that happened across the planet, and far worse in ] |
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that along with about 1 million other major issues with electing Trump should be the messaging behind the election for the dems but instead they gonna be fighting over Biden until Trump is elected. It's like a perfect storm of Dem campaigning ineptitude, bad media/journalism, social media, and an uninformed electorate leading us into a slow-moving trainwreck.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [108395]
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Oh, I remember well when my parents bought a house with a 16% mortgage
Jul 11, 2024, 3:11 PM
[ in reply to You're old enough to remember inflation being higher than 9 percent ] |
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And therein lies the major difference. THE MORTGAGE WAS 16%. Volcker raised rates as high as 18-20% to combat that inflation, and it worked, along with some other measures. But today, we simply don't have the ammo for rates over 8% or so. If Jerome Powell raised rates to 18% just as Volcker did, the solvency of the government would....well, stop. Not to mention the losses incurred on cheap debt over the past years.
So yeah, different time, different tools available. What I fear is we're seeing a slow motion response due to the mildness of the rates set. So by the time a recession can't be hidden or denied any longer, it will already be VERY DEEP. Keep in mind, inflation rose for almost a full YEAR before the fed did anything. Our 11/2021 refi at 2.125% was the same month CPI showed 7% inflation. Inflation had been rising since FEBRUARY 2021, and I know by November nothing had been done, or mentioned. Inflation rose from 2.7% to 7% between 2/2021 and 11/2021.
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110%er [3638]
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check that. CPI went down, core went up
Jul 11, 2024, 11:30 AM
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My apologies
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National Champion [7686]
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Re: core inflation drops for the first time since May 2020
Jul 11, 2024, 11:47 AM
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Good news but it's interesting the market has collectively shrugged at this info.
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Ultimate Tiger [34957]
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The Sept and, to a lesser extent, Nov, rate drop has already been baked-in...
Jul 11, 2024, 12:29 PM
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Could also be that deflation, in any way shape or form, can be concerning for some.
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Clemson Sports Icon [52741]
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Speaking of Jerome, why has Brandon not had a single meeting with him in over
Jul 11, 2024, 11:51 AM
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2 years?
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110%er [3638]
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What was the precedent before Trump?
Jul 11, 2024, 12:29 PM
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I could be wrong, but I don’t believe the Fed chair ever received direction from a President before Trump. I mean, what they want is pretty obvious, so a meeting seems relatively useless from the Fed’s pov.
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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Nah, Powell was conferring with the likes of Jamie Dimon et al...***
Jul 11, 2024, 12:33 PM
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110%er [3638]
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Makes sense, he is the head of the largest Fed member bank***
Jul 11, 2024, 12:39 PM
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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And yet... "The FED is independent."***
Jul 11, 2024, 12:41 PM
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Game Changer [1942]
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Campus Hero [13551]
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lol***
Jul 11, 2024, 12:10 PM
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Dynasty Maker [3251]
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Inflation has been defeated....
Jul 11, 2024, 12:51 PM
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The inflation we had was worldwide, and it was driven by supply-chain & demand shocks from the pandemic. It was transitory and has worked itself out without an economic recession.
It wasn't driven by Biden or any of his policies.
It was transitory, as the burst lasted for about 1-2 years, and then subsided. Core inflation is now around 2.4% or so, and even lower if you look at recent months only.
Time for the Fed to cut rates.
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National Champion [7763]
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Come on man. Even Yellen
Jul 11, 2024, 3:33 PM
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Said she regretted calling it transitory.
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