Re: I think you left off a 'k'... ;~)***

flow0440

All-In [32108]

TigerPulse: 100%

Posts: 37335

Joined: 11/22/03

The T&D industry's big trade show that happens every 2 years...

May 22, 2024, 12:49 PM

was 2 weeks ago in Anaheim. It was the busiest/best show that I've ever been to and I've been to every one since 1996.

The industry is already booming and the impacts from the IRA and IIJA are just starting to hit. The bottom line is that the build-out needed for all of the market drivers are going to be paced but equipment/material supply.

I was part of a panel on this very topic and the 5 other panelists all had the exact same take.

Lead-time of HV circuit breakers are already roughly 4 years. Same for large power transformers. Our products are in the 2nd tier and the lead-time ranges from 20 wks to 70 wks and it would be a lot worse had we not brought on additional capacity over the last 2 years. It's the reason we're about to announce a $30MM investment in a new factory in Ga. We've already been growing at ~40%/year pace over the last 4 years. And we're starting to hit our walls for growth...like no office space for add'l staff, parking, land, and on and on.

The thing is, there are 6 major drivers right now. Only 2 or 3 of them have to sustain for there to be a boom market for 10+ yrs.

EV's
Renewables
AI
Traditional Data Centers (cloud computing)
Manufacturing Growth
Aging Infrastructure
Impacts from IRA and IIJA aimed at EV/Renewable tie

From 1950 to 2000, electricity consumption in the US increased somewhat linearly. Utilities had to plan for load growth and so on. Since 2000, US electricity consumption has been pretty much flat. It looks like we're about to return to a long period of increased consumption, likely with a steeper slope than we saw pre-2000. Estimates are that an additional 30% of transmission capacity will be needed by 2030. That is an insane figure that no one really knows how it's going to be accomplished.

One thing I do know for sure is utilities need the flexibility to stop shuttering operationing coal and gas-fired power plants!

But it is a fun time to be in our industry!

flag link

military_tech

thumb_down

thumb_up

FYI, here’s an overview of the global manufacturers and market outlook for electrical grades of steel, with one of these grades (GOES) used to make transformers and the other grade (NOES) used to make electric motors, inductor platform devices, etc.

A Japanese company (I forget which one) had recently announced their intention to buy America’s most famous name in the steel industry … U.S.Steel. U.S.Steel had somewhat recently announced plans to either enter or expand their production of either GOES or NOES … I forget which one.

Not exactly a whoopee type of ‘infrastructure’ investment to cash in on both the users of electricity and the transporters of electricity, but I’m going to dig aroundi a bit more before deciding whether to invest my last $100 in the market.

https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electrical-steel-market

flow... What's the industry consensus on how this will unfold...? Thanks.

Industrial and utility construction in the near term?***

I think that should take precedence over the explosion of data centers...

The T&D industry's big trade show that happens every 2 years...

Thanks for the details... Seems it's time for some mini-reactors to come online.

Electrical Steel Market Size, Share, & Growth Report - 2024 thru 2030

I think you left off a 'k'... ;~)***

That'll probably get you 1 share of Nvidia after the June 7th 10-1 split...***

Re: That'll probably get you 1 share of Nvidia after the June 7th 10-1 split...***

I don't have a lot but a 10-1 split will make it look like I do...***

TigerBoard POTD