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Athletic Dir [1106]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Does Vegas know something we dont?
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Dec 14, 2024, 11:11 AM
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-11 to Texas. (According to DraftKings on 12/14/24)
I get that it’s a home game for Texas.
I get that we got “blown out” by UGA.
But I’m pretty shocked that Texas is an 11 point favorite - maybe the line will shift this week.
My gut says this is closer to a 7.5 point game but who knows?
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Letterman [154]
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Re: Does Vegas know something we dont?
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Dec 14, 2024, 11:12 AM
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Who cares, 1 point or 20 points is the same result. Win and move on or lose and go home
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Heisman Winner [79333]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Does Vegas know something we dont? This is Tnet
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Dec 14, 2024, 11:25 AM
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and our people here know everything
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Orange Elite [5297]
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18-6 in DKR since 2020
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Dec 14, 2024, 11:34 AM
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might have something to do with such a generous spread. But I'd still bet against the Horns to cover.
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Ring of Honor [22408]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Yes Vegas knows there are a CNN lot of Texas fans who like to bet
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Dec 14, 2024, 11:36 AM
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On the ‘Horns. The betting patterns influence how lines are established.
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Clemson Icon [24158]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Joined: 2007
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Re: Does Vegas know something we dont?
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Dec 14, 2024, 11:53 AM
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Seems about right to me. They're #3, we're #16 playing on the road. We might pull an upset, but it could easily be a blowout if we can't run the ball.
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Hall of Famer [8634]
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Re: Does Vegas know something we dont?
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Dec 14, 2024, 12:14 PM
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I think turnover margin will be the difference. Ewers tends to turn it over, and Clemson forces a lot of them. If we win the turnover margin, we have a good chance to win. I agree, that we need to be able to run the ball, though.
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Clemson Icon [27580]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Joined: 2024
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Re: Does Vegas know something we dont?
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Dec 14, 2024, 11:54 AM
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The line is pretty close to what most people expected. Nothing odd about it all.
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Athletic Dir [1127]
TigerPulse: 66%
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Re: Does Vegas know something we dont?
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Dec 14, 2024, 11:56 AM
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yes they saw us get blown out by UGA, and Louisville, and struggle to score against the ##### defense. Texas defense is real, and we have no depth on defense or any semblance of a running game. This is a recipe for tons of 3 and outs and the Texas offense gutting a gassed Clemson D .
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Offensive Star [343]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Does Vegas know something we dont?
Dec 14, 2024, 12:56 PM
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Texas's schedule was weak only teams with a pulse Georgia
and Texas A&M. Texas defense is overblown look at the weak
sisters they played. It's Texas with ESPN and all the Sports
pundits/analysts have overated them all year. They did not play
Tennessee, Alabama, South Carolina, and Ole Miss. They played the
bottom rung of the conference. As far as players I'll take Clemson
defense all day long. It's the defensive coaches that I question
Clemson has the talent. Offense same same Matt Luke is the only
elite Coach the rest not so much. Clemson has the talent on offense
that could give the Longhorns fits.
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Campus Hero [13690]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Does Vegas know something we dont?
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Dec 14, 2024, 12:01 PM
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Yes, Vegas knows that more Teksuns are gambling addicts.
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Solid Orange [1392]
TigerPulse: 84%
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Re: Does Vegas know something we dont?
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Dec 14, 2024, 12:30 PM
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I don't understand why this is surprising? I think we win, but I think everyone expected them to be a 10-14 point favorite going into the game.
Strength of schedule favors them. They're #3. We're #23.
Overall margin of victory favors them. They're beating teams 34-12, we're beating teams 35-23. That's a 10 point difference there.
Actual results favor them. We lost to UGA 34-3. We were down 26-7 to Louisville with 6 minutes to go when they put in their backups. We lost to South Carolina. We beat Pitt was a bonkers QB scramble with a minute to go. SMU pretty much worked us over for the last 30 minutes of the game once they settled down. Those were the four teams with winning records we played. Texas lost twice to the team many of here consider the favorite to win the national championship, once in overtime. They beat 5 teams with winning records.
Statistics favor them. Our offenses are very similar. Scoring, we're #17 and they're #26, which is 1.4 difference in points per game. Total, we're #12 and they're #17, which is 9 yards a game. Defensively, they're the #2 scoring defense and #3 total defense (#1 passing). We're the #43 scoring defense and the #65 total defense.
I'd actually expect more in the realm of 13 point favorites. If we play like we've done against UGA, Louisville, or the second half against SMU, we could easily lose this by 35.
That said, and I said this before our opponent was chosen, but we match up best against Texas vs. the potential opponents we could have had. Notre Dame was our nightmare scenario. Their running back pair and Riley would have killed us on the ground for about 250 rushing yards and their pass defense is on par with Texas (probably even better because they've faced better passing offenses). Ohio State's receivers are so other-worldly that we would have been gouged there like the last games we've played against elite receivers.
But we can beat Texas. Ewers is a great passer when he isn't pressured, but is a statue. Their receivers aren't anywhere near Ohio State's. Their running game has been mediocre (#59 in the country.
There's also the fact that we haven't put together two halves of complimentary football all season. If we did, we could be a very dangerous team. Goodwin is the biggest question mark as he needs to learn the nickel just doesn't work, and that we need to run a 4-3 and use blitzes, even if the analytics go against that. But if Dabo lets Riley do his thing and air it out, and Goodwin acts like a coordinator, then we can beat Texas, which I wouldn't say about Oregon, Ohio State, Georgia, or Notre Dame.
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All-American [571]
TigerPulse: 37%
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Re: Does Vegas know something we dont?
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Dec 14, 2024, 1:07 PM
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We got blown out by Uga. Lost to an average Louisville team and got beat by an inferior coots team on our home field. That’s where the 11pt spread comes from.
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CU Medallion [20498]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Does Vegas know something we dont?
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Dec 14, 2024, 1:10 PM
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I tend to agree with Vegas. Based on this season, we only play two good quarters of football. IF, and it’s a big IF, we play four quarters of complimentary football we can win by 11.5. IF we play like normal, it could get ugly.
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