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Replies: 38
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Heisman Winner [82531]
TigerPulse: 100%
62
Posts: 10025
Joined: 2015
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I just saw where the line has moved to +6.5
Jan 5, 2020, 3:08 PM
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must be lots of $$$ going on that other team. If it goes to +8, I'm betting the farm.
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Orange Blooded [2368]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: I just saw where the line has moved to +6.5
Jan 5, 2020, 3:11 PM
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What is the money line at? I don't think we need the points. I would rather win more for my money.
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Paw Master [16483]
TigerPulse: 99%
51
Posts: 18894
Joined: 2009
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+185
Jan 5, 2020, 3:14 PM
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Pretty freaking good value
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CU Guru [1188]
TigerPulse: 88%
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Re: +185
Jan 5, 2020, 3:17 PM
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Read somewhere yesterday that 93% of the money bet so far is on LSU. They will keep upping the spread until that $$ split changes significantly.
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National Champion [7969]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: +185
Jan 5, 2020, 10:34 PM
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Not necessarily. Vegas has already moved the line 2.5 points. A bigger move may induce late action on Clemson from smarter players who are waiting for a more attractive number, knowing that the public is betting LSU heavy. They may not want that late action.
The line should have ALREADY moved higher with so much money on LSU. That it hasn’t is telling us something.
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Rival Killer [2822]
TigerPulse: 77%
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Re: +185
Jan 5, 2020, 3:52 PM
[ in reply to +185 ] |
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LOL! I was writing this message originally to state I couldn't figure out moneyline betting. While I was writing it, I managed to explain it to myself. First time this message board has ever been used for positive therapy.
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Paw Warrior [4758]
TigerPulse: 82%
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Re: +185
Jan 5, 2020, 9:52 PM
[ in reply to +185 ] |
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So does that mean i am getting almost 2 to 1 odds ??
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National Champion [7969]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: +185
Jan 5, 2020, 10:24 PM
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Yes, that’s what it means. If Clemson wins you get back $185 for every $100 bet. At the casinos in Vegas, for instance, you give them $100 a take Clemson on the Moneyline- you get a ticket back. LSU wins, the ticket is worthless. They keep your $100. Clemson wins, your ticket is worth $285. Your original $100 bet, plus the $185 “odds”.
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Starter [281]
TigerPulse: 84%
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Varsity [104]
TigerPulse: 92%
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Re: +185
Jan 5, 2020, 11:05 PM
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The explanation above is correct. You get your original $100 plus $185 for a $100 Moneyline bet on Clemson.
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Starter [281]
TigerPulse: 84%
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Re: +185
Jan 5, 2020, 11:07 PM
[ in reply to Re: +185 ] |
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Actually, I am wrong. My bad.
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1st Rounder [667]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: +185
Jan 6, 2020, 12:15 AM
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First and only time I ever bet on sports was the first natty win 4 years ago. Bet the money line on Clemson and got back more than x2 of what I put in.... that pass to Renfrow was magnified in importance with money on the line.
Can’t do that again. Pressure is enough without money involved 
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Paw Master [16818]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: +185
Jan 6, 2020, 9:38 AM
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Lol, that last sentence says it ALL!
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Varsity [219]
TigerPulse: 98%
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MGM/Aria/Bellagio/etc have LSU -5.5
Jan 5, 2020, 11:36 PM
[ in reply to +185 ] |
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but ML on Clemson is +195. I would think in Biloxi you can easily find +200.
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Rock Defender [69]
TigerPulse: 21%
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Moneyline is +185
Jan 5, 2020, 10:18 PM
[ in reply to Re: I just saw where the line has moved to +6.5 ] |
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Implied odds based on moneyline give Clemson about 32% chance of winning. If you believe your hype, that’s a huge value bet for Clemson fans.
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All-TigerNet [12666]
TigerPulse: 86%
47
Posts: 12291
Joined: 2011
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That's not a good sign at all.
Jan 5, 2020, 3:18 PM
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The percent chance that a 6.5 point underdog wins is 27.7%
What happened to all those spreads before the playoff that had us favored to beat LSU if we met them. I guess the Peach Bowl happened in addition to them beating Tex AM 50-7 and Georgia 37-10.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [101300]
TigerPulse: 100%
64
Posts: 48721
Joined: 2009
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Calm down, if Clemson Players & Their Staff Can’t Get It Done On 13th..then
Jan 5, 2020, 3:23 PM
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No Team & Staff in America Can!
Saying..Believe!
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Orange Blooded [4745]
TigerPulse: 100%
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The computer simulation has Clemson winning 28-14.
Jan 5, 2020, 3:31 PM
[ in reply to That's not a good sign at all. ] |
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They also had Clemson beating Ohio St.
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Hall of Famer [23994]
TigerPulse: 100%
53
Posts: 10556
Joined: 2017
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Re: The computer simulation has Clemson winning 28-14.
Jan 6, 2020, 7:17 AM
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Both teams are going to score at least 28
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Paw Warrior [4758]
TigerPulse: 82%
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Re: That's not a good sign at all.
Jan 5, 2020, 9:57 PM
[ in reply to That's not a good sign at all. ] |
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I don't know if I understand this but the other day someone else was explaining that the spread is determined by the betting patterns. When LSU fans go crazy betting on their team, they drive the spread up - so that more people will bet on Clemson. It really doesn't reflect the odds of winning. It reflects the betting public's willingness to bet.
If the spread keeps going up will the moneyline go up as well.
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National Champion [8066]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: That's not a good sign at all.
Jan 5, 2020, 10:37 PM
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I believe Alabama was a 6 pt favorite last year so the fact people are betting the farm on LSU doesn't really mean much.
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Valley Protector [1430]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Valley Protector [1430]
TigerPulse: 100%
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My site has it at 5.5! I plan to hold out
Jan 5, 2020, 11:11 PM
[ in reply to Re: That's not a good sign at all. ] |
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Until Sunday. I have a feeling the money will be flowing heavily toward our tigers after Saturday
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Orange Blooded [2368]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: That's not a good sign at all.
Jan 6, 2020, 7:16 AM
[ in reply to Re: That's not a good sign at all. ] |
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The money line will reflect what is coming in on that bet. As ClemTig said more or less they will be careful moving the line at this point due to expected money to come in. With the betting so one-sided to this point, ones that like Clemson have had no incentive to go on and place their bets.
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Varsity [104]
TigerPulse: 92%
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Oculus Spirit [39705]
TigerPulse: 100%
57
Posts: 33635
Joined: 2011
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Re: That's not a good sign at all.
Jan 5, 2020, 10:43 PM
[ in reply to That's not a good sign at all. ] |
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Well Bammy was a 5.5 pt favorite at kickoff in Santa Clara ... soooo....
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Varsity [104]
TigerPulse: 92%
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Re: I just saw where the line has moved to +6.5
Jan 5, 2020, 3:25 PM
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Kinda puzzling. Im sure itll b a tough gane but i dont think LSU is that good. Im surprised with the spread really.
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Paw Warrior [4848]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: I just saw where the line has moved to +6.5
Jan 5, 2020, 10:04 PM
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Gonna be a lot of prison guards having a haaad time tellin tha 'ol lady why she has got to move hout of tha trailer next Tuesday mornin...
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National Champion [7969]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: I just saw where the line has moved to +6.5
Jan 5, 2020, 10:16 PM
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Link? All I see on searching is Clemson +5.5. That despite about 75% of the money on LSU.
And before anyone feels the need to educate me on how lines work, just stop. I’ve been betting and studying lines longer than you have lived.
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Varsity [104]
TigerPulse: 92%
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Re: I just saw where the line has moved to +6.5
Jan 5, 2020, 10:43 PM
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The online SB spreads currently range between LSU -5 to -6.5(-105). The -6.5 line is on Bovada.
-5.5 is the consensus right now.
https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/odds
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CU Guru [1457]
TigerPulse: 68%
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Re: I just saw where the line has moved to +6.5***
Jan 5, 2020, 10:36 PM
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Varsity [231]
TigerPulse: 30%
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Consensus is 5.5...
Jan 5, 2020, 11:09 PM
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same everywhere I see.
money line consensus is -220, +180.
Bet 100 on Clemson and win you get your 100 back plus 180 profit.
Peeps keep catching Guido out of line and Guido keeps building casinos.
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National Champion [7969]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Consensus is 5.5...
Jan 6, 2020, 7:27 AM
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“Peeps keep catching Guido out of line and Guido keeps building casinos.”
You must be nervous with all that money on LSU and “Guido” is holding the other side. Line not moving yet more and more money piles on LSU. You not worried that Vegas has set up a trap?
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Orange Elite [5125]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Consensus is 5.5...
Jan 6, 2020, 8:54 AM
[ in reply to Consensus is 5.5... ] |
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If Guido does his job right he wins every time, regardless of who wins on the field...he didn’t do so well last year though. They got suckered by the hype and the “eye test” and lost bigly.
Read stories about that being the single worst day historically for some books. High 6 figure losses. Here’s to a repeat next week.
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National Champion [7969]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Consensus is 5.5...
Jan 6, 2020, 11:04 AM
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I hope not! The public is on LSU heavy! We WANT Vegas to win this one!
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Valley Protector [1430]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: I just saw where the line has moved to +6.5
Jan 5, 2020, 11:07 PM
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Taking that money line now!!!!
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Tiger Titan [48079]
TigerPulse: 100%
58
Posts: 49059
Joined: 2004
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Re: I just saw where the line has moved to +6.5
Jan 6, 2020, 8:02 AM
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Its still 5.5.
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Hall of Famer [23994]
TigerPulse: 100%
53
Posts: 10556
Joined: 2017
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Public is all over LSU
Jan 6, 2020, 8:23 AM
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From what i've read from professional bettors is that they expect Clemson to cover and likely to win outright. Clemson should have opened up as a 1-2 point favorite per what I've seen (and that was the hypothetical spread before the over reaction to LSU beating OU). Vegas knows if they move the line any higher than 6 then heavy bets will come in on Clemson
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Ultimate Tiger [33914]
TigerPulse: 100%
56
Posts: 36196
Joined: 2003
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National anthem singer is LSU grad.. Vegas knows
Jan 6, 2020, 8:24 AM
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The fix is on
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Replies: 38
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