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Replies: 65
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Clemson Conqueror [11466]
TigerPulse: 100%
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A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
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Oct 5, 2024, 9:05 AM
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+15 over the last 24 hours. Not understanding that at all, even with my built in bias, Bret had a very well articulated post on why he doesn’t see it either.
Oh well, we shall see… Go Tigers by a million!!!!
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Orange Elite [5497]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
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11
Oct 5, 2024, 9:23 AM
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Quite simply, Cade hasn’t performed on the road. He was quite awful on the road last year. This has to be a prove it game. Until he can travel well, Clemson is a sketchy pick to cover away from home.
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Clemson Conqueror [11466]
TigerPulse: 100%
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That has been my thoughts all week
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Oct 5, 2024, 9:51 AM
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Cade hasn’t played well away from home in his career and will have to prove it before before the books adjust.
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All-American [550]
TigerPulse: 95%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
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Oct 5, 2024, 10:24 AM
[ in reply to Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU ] |
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Fsu has looked like crap on the road and at home. 15 points a game 278 yards a game. Clemson rolls in this game. 42-10
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Legend [6629]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Legend [6957]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Posts: 13906
Joined: 2000
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FSU still has talent everywhere and now perhaps a different QB
4
Oct 5, 2024, 9:30 AM
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Add in the fact it is a road game, The Clemson offense could disappear and the defense is not as good as last year... I can see it.
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Orange Blooded [2204]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: FSU still has talent everywhere and now perhaps a different QB
3
Oct 5, 2024, 9:33 AM
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Curious how many fans are there. Half the stadium is under construction and I’m sure many Tiger fans have bought tickets from disgruntled Noles. That said, I am nervous.
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Valley Protector [1448]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Rival Killer [2978]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: FSU still has talent everywhere and now perhaps a different QB
Oct 5, 2024, 11:14 AM
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They are a crappy team. I don’t expect they will play well the rest of the year.
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Hall of Famer [8663]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
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7
Oct 5, 2024, 9:30 AM
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The betting lines I’m seeing show Clemson -16 at the moment. That would mean bettors were betting on Clemson to cover at the previous -14.5.
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Asst Coach [891]
TigerPulse: 92%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
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Oct 5, 2024, 9:39 AM
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Correct the opposite of what the op said is happening. Money is coming on for Clemson to cover.
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Clemson Conqueror [11466]
TigerPulse: 100%
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The public is heavy betting Clemson
4
Oct 5, 2024, 9:49 AM
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Vegas sharps are jumping on everything Clemson +15 and up.
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Hall of Famer [8663]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: The public is heavy betting Clemson
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Oct 5, 2024, 9:51 AM
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Just to be clear, that means the money is coming in heavily on Clemson, not FSU.
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Clemson Conqueror [11466]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Dude PUBLIC money is
4
Oct 5, 2024, 9:52 AM
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The professional gamblers who gamble for a living are all over FSU
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Asst Coach [891]
TigerPulse: 92%
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Re: Dude PUBLIC money is
4
Oct 5, 2024, 10:02 AM
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Then the line would be moving closer to zero and it’s not. Money is coming in on Clemson. Hence the spread expanding so Vegas hopes to break even.
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Hall of Famer [8663]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Dude PUBLIC money is
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Oct 5, 2024, 10:04 AM
[ in reply to Dude PUBLIC money is ] |
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That’s not what the betting lines are saying. Not trying to be argumentative, but if they are giving more points to FSU than before, Vegas is trying to even out the bets by coaxing bettors to lay money on FSU. That’s what the line means.
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Clemson Conqueror [11466]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Bro
3
Oct 5, 2024, 10:07 AM
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There is tons of PUBLIC MONEY an overwhelming amount, 3rd highest bet side this weekend of any game, on Clemson.
THE PROFESSIONAL GAMBLERS WHO ARE SMARTER THAN THE PUBLIC GENERALLY… are betting FSU + the points. This isn’t complicated. I was just saying I wonder what the sharps see on this particular one. Good grief.
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Hall of Famer [8663]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Bro
2
Oct 5, 2024, 10:08 AM
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Link?
Besides, that’s not what you said:
“Vegas sharps are jumping on everything Clemson +15 and up.”
If the “sharps” are jumping on everything Clemson +15 & up, that wording by definition means that heavy money is coming in on CLEMSON. “Dude,” you don’t know what you’re talking about. “Bro.”
Message was edited by: tigerdan75®
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Clemson Conqueror [11466]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Bro
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Oct 5, 2024, 10:27 AM
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You should probably never comment on anything gambling related ever again. Good luck tiger Dan.
Go Tigers!
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Hall of Famer [8663]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Bro
2
Oct 5, 2024, 10:45 AM
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On the other hand, I ran a power rating system for years that set odds. I kinda know what I’m talking about. By increasing the points for FSU, the oddsmakers are trying to even up bets. That means heavy betting was coming in on Clemson. By increasing the points given to the underdog, they are trying to coax more bets for FSU.
If those bets come in, the line will hold. If the bets still favor Clemson, the line will increase even more by game time.
You are equivocating by saying that you meant professional bettors were favoring FSU to cover even before the line increased. I’m challenging you to produce a link. If you can’t, then you should shut your pie hole.
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Clemson Conqueror [11466]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Bro
Oct 5, 2024, 11:58 AM
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I can’t even have a conversation about gambling on a basic level that you seem to understand, that or you can’t read. Congrats on power ranking your friends and family leagues. Again, you should stay away from gambling or maybe books, I really cannot tell.
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Hall of Famer [8663]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Bro
Oct 5, 2024, 12:02 PM
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Still waiting on the link lol
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Tiger Titan [45049]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Posts: 11802
Joined: 2015
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Re: Bro
2
Oct 5, 2024, 10:17 AM
[ in reply to Bro ] |
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+15 or +16 with most games are good odds. Lot of points and I win more on these types of spreads. Lot to cover. It could easily be a 30 point beat down as well if the offense is clicking.
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Orange Blooded [2137]
TigerPulse: 97%
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If you say it one more time it might actually come true.***
Oct 5, 2024, 11:38 AM
[ in reply to Bro ] |
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CU Guru [1503]
TigerPulse: 95%
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Re: Dude PUBLIC money is
Oct 5, 2024, 11:13 AM
[ in reply to Dude PUBLIC money is ] |
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Allow me to translate…
Public money = dead money.
Vegas Sharps = they know something we don’t.
May be a long night.
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Hall of Famer [8663]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Dude PUBLIC money is
Oct 5, 2024, 11:23 AM
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Again, link? I think that spin is BS. Prove me wrong and I will apologize.
You and the OP are saying that professional bettors were taking FSU and the points at the lower value, while ignorant public bettors are laying money on Clemson. I do not believe that is true, but if it is, PROVIDE A LINK!
Otherwise, I’m calling BS on you both. I will not be surprised to see the line go to -18 by game time. Not a prediction, just wouldn’t be surprised. That doesn’t mean the oddsmakers think Clemson will win by that much.
THEY ARE TRYING TO EVEN OUT THE BETTING MONEY SO THEY MAKE A PROFIT EITHER WAY! THEY WOULDN’T BE TRYING TO GIVE MORE POINTS TO FSU BETTORS IF THE MONEY WAS ALREADY FAVORING FSU!
Apologies to my friend DEROBERTS, whose posts I love.
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All-In [10247]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
4
Oct 5, 2024, 9:52 AM
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We've had one really bad game, 1 average game and 2 above average games and you guys are talking about how much playing time the backups will get tonight
I don't mind confidence but there is absolutely no basis for the kind of arrogance I've seen on the board this week
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Valley Protector [1468]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
Oct 5, 2024, 11:31 AM
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FSU has had two average games and three really bad games. I like our odds.
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All-TigerNet [5720]
TigerPulse: 100%
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I dont understand your post
4
Oct 5, 2024, 10:06 AM
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You say smart money is coming in on FSU
But the smart money coming in late is pushing the line from 14.5 to 16
What point are you trying to make here?
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Orange Blooded [2137]
TigerPulse: 97%
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He has no idea***
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Oct 5, 2024, 11:39 AM
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Top TigerNet [30551]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Joined: 2009
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New QB for FSU could give them a spark
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Oct 5, 2024, 10:11 AM
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Ah least enough of one to cover the number p
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [103179]
TigerPulse: 100%
64
Posts: 99131
Joined: 2009
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If the kid performed in practice this week they will come out with...
1
Oct 5, 2024, 11:12 AM
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a lot of heart to try and rid themselves of the embarrassing season. That might make them feel better but it won't help much.
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All-TigerNet [5733]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
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Oct 5, 2024, 10:21 AM
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Apologies as I'm not a better but I'm seeing Clemson -15 to -15.5. It has been as low as -13.5 earlier this week. My limited understanding is that means people belive Clemson will win by 15 or 16 and thus the line moved as a lot of people were taking the -14.5.
Is that correct or close lol?
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Tiger Titan [45049]
TigerPulse: 100%
58
Posts: 11802
Joined: 2015
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
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Oct 5, 2024, 10:25 AM
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Yes you are correct.
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Solid Orange [1306]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
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Oct 5, 2024, 10:22 AM
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I understand your point completely, but non gamblers ( ex in my case!) obviously don’t. What’s with the “Dude” and “Bro” stuff though?
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Varsity [133]
TigerPulse: 96%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
2
Oct 5, 2024, 10:30 AM
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Astute gamblers always lean toward home dogs, both college and NFL.
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Clemson Icon [24022]
TigerPulse: 100%
54
Posts: 15525
Joined: 1995
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At home and cornered, facing 1-5.
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Oct 5, 2024, 10:33 AM
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I would expect a dogfight from them if our defense plays soft and we miss on some early throws.
The opposite can happen if our defense tightens and we hit a few big plays early.
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Recruit [67]
TigerPulse: 98%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
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Oct 5, 2024, 11:03 AM
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You have it backwards. Right now the line just moved to -17...so more people thinks Clemson will win by a larger margin ...that's a pretty big move overnight...Vegas loves Clemson in this one.
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Orange Beast [6311]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
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Oct 5, 2024, 11:31 AM
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Yeah, OP doesn’t understand the way this works…sharps are pounding Clemson, line is now -17.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [103179]
TigerPulse: 100%
64
Posts: 99131
Joined: 2009
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This isn't about the FSU or Clemson players.
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Oct 5, 2024, 11:07 AM
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Clearly we have the talent across the board to drop a 'C,' note on FSU. So I'm ignoring the talk of them being better than shown and/or Clemson having a soft spot or a bad game because of Cade's road experiences.
This is about what Dabo wants out of this game and we can only speculate so one guess is about as good as another.
My guess is that Dabo will want a close game and do his best to manufacture adversity just like that rapscallion always does when we're loaded. However, this is not a game we can afford to lose since we know that finishing behind another ACC team will not firmly establish our rightful place in the Playoff. That is not speculation.
We will score 50 but I do not believe our defense will give up 30. I'm giving the points and taking Clemson on this one.
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Orange Blooded [2186]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
Oct 5, 2024, 11:15 AM
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I’m not at betting person so don’t understand the term “sharp money”. Can you define what “sharp money” is versus general betting?
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Hall of Famer [8663]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
Oct 5, 2024, 12:33 PM
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From Sportsline:
Understanding
Public and Money
“Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.”
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Asst Coach [891]
TigerPulse: 92%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
Oct 5, 2024, 12:36 PM
[ in reply to Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU ] |
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Sharps are the group of people who bet sports books big in Vegas. They lay down big money. Not just 100 or 500 bets.
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Asst Coach [891]
TigerPulse: 92%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
1
Oct 5, 2024, 12:38 PM
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They also have a much higher percentage of winning there bets against the house.
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All-TigerNet [5733]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
Oct 5, 2024, 12:42 PM
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So the "sharp" $ is saying FSU will lose by leas than 15?
Thanks
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Asst Coach [891]
TigerPulse: 92%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
Oct 5, 2024, 12:45 PM
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No the opposite from what I am seeing
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Asst Coach [891]
TigerPulse: 92%
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All-TigerNet [5733]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
Oct 5, 2024, 12:46 PM
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Ahhh ok. The way I read the OP was kinda opposite.
Thanks for the clarification
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Solid Orange [1306]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
Oct 5, 2024, 12:48 PM
[ in reply to Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU ] |
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I used to play the games way more than I like to admit. Just lost the desire a few years ago- probably because I finally figured out that I couldn’t win.
Anyway, here’s the way it works in Vegas and the point Dude/Bro was trying to make. There are literally thousands of amateur gamblers like me who wager $50, $100, maybe $500 or a dime on a game. These are the “public” gamblers mentioned. At the same time, it is not only possible, but happens frequently, that the professionals are betting the other way. These are people betting much higher bets, but there are just way less of them. So if the public money is greater than the “smart” money the line moves, like it is toward Clemson.
Hey, I’m no pro at this, but I used to study the subject pretty hard trying to figure out how to win. I never accomplished that, but the mechanics of what makes the line move are pretty clear.
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All-TigerNet [5733]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
Oct 5, 2024, 12:52 PM
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So public is saying we win by 15 or more, smart money is saying less than 15?
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Solid Orange [1306]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
Oct 5, 2024, 1:46 PM
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Correct.
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Hall of Famer [8663]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
Oct 5, 2024, 12:54 PM
[ in reply to Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU ] |
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The only problem that I’m seeing is that sharp money is mostly going to the over/under, not spread. The over/under has dropped. Also, sharp money on moneyline is heavily on Clemson at -700. That means about 90% of sharps expect Clemson to win even if they don’t cover the spread.
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Rival Killer [3072]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
Oct 5, 2024, 12:41 PM
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Because this is now FSU's Superbowl. We're gonna get their best shot today and it honestly wouldn't surprise me if they beat us in a shootout. We don't have the defense to lean on that we have the past decade +. FSU is gonna move the ball, and they're gonna score points. The team has no chemistry what so ever, but it's still full of elite playmakers.
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Paw Warrior [4876]
TigerPulse: 100%
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LOL
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Oct 5, 2024, 12:46 PM
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If you think FSU is capable of winning in a "shootout," then you have clearly not watched them play.
Offensive line is abysmal. WR core is pedestrian relative to years past. Toafili is a gamer but their transfer from Indiana who was gonna be their star went out with a season-ending injury.
Their only shot is to hope we have an off night and force a few turnovers which they will need to convert into touchdowns.
They could win a 21-17 type of game. But a shootout will not go in their favor whatsoever.
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Rival Killer [3072]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: LOL
Oct 5, 2024, 1:17 PM
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Have you watched us play? Or Defense isn't much better than Abysmal at this point. We have no pass rush what so ever and we let Stanford put up 236 yards on the ground. If you don't think FSU has the talent on that roster to win this game you're delusional. FSU in Primetime at Doak has all the intangibles for an upset.
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Playmaker [372]
TigerPulse: 96%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
Oct 5, 2024, 1:00 PM
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Sharp money??? Dumb money??? Or is it the same folks who are at the video poker machines. And pouring all their money in, and never cashing out.
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Ring of Honor [22827]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Joined: 2018
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
Oct 5, 2024, 1:02 PM
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I don’t know anything about professional vs. public bettors so I won’t go there. What I can say is The Fanduel line has gone from 14.5 to 16.5 so someone is definitely betting late on Clemson.
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Tiger Spirit [9130]
TigerPulse: 97%
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Line has rocketed from -14.5 to -17 in that span so
Oct 5, 2024, 1:10 PM
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If "sharps" are betting fsu, it isnt many.
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Heisman Winner [87016]
TigerPulse: 100%
62
Posts: 39305
Joined: 2003
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Sharks may have infused some sudden NIL $$$ to the FSU Mercenaries, to incite
Oct 5, 2024, 1:18 PM
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them to play well tonight?
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Asst Coach [847]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Line UP from 15 to 17 last 24 Hours, Heavy Money ON CLEMSON
Oct 5, 2024, 1:34 PM
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You must be mixed up.
That means Heavy Money coming in ON CLEMSON.
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All-TigerNet [5720]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Spread now at 17
Oct 5, 2024, 6:27 PM
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Must be a lot of late dull money getting thrown at Clemson
This whole thread amuses me
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Top TigerNet [30218]
TigerPulse: 100%
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I will be shocked if FSU covers.
Oct 5, 2024, 6:30 PM
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Some of my Nole friends are bettors. They are all taking Clemson and giving the points. At least those who are putting money on the game are.
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Orange Phenom [14625]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Joined: 2004
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The arguments for FSU covering are pretty
Oct 5, 2024, 6:37 PM
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straightforward.
1) All 3 teams we've beaten are terrible
2) We haven't proven we can do it on the road yet
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Rival Killer [2621]
TigerPulse: 94%
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Re: A lot of sharp money coming in on FSU
Oct 5, 2024, 6:38 PM
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Florida state has not shown a pulse this year.
If you’ve watched any of their games this year, it’s hard to see how they can score points, any points. They are averaging less than 15 points a game.
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Orange Phenom [14625]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Posts: 23694
Joined: 2004
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Now that I actually look at the line though
Oct 5, 2024, 6:38 PM
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It's up to 16.5. The money is definitely coming in on Clemson and not FSU.
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Hall of Famer [8663]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Now that I actually look at the line though
Oct 5, 2024, 6:48 PM
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To be fair, I do understand what the OP was saying. He’s saying the smart money is coming in on FSU to cover when it was -14.5. I didn’t mean to come on so strong, but what I was seeing was that the smart money was coming in (1) on the over/under to be under 47, and (2) the moneyline, which was -685 (now -750). I still haven’t seen heavy sharp betting on the spread. I just wonder where he saw that. I looked, but I haven’t seen it. Sorry for being a jerk.
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