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Commissioner [907]
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3rd and 5 or more
Jul 26, 2013, 7:31 AM
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If the Tigers on D can make Murray face this down and distance a lot during the game we will put the brakes on their O a lot during the game. The key to the game in my opinion is keeping them out of play action passing yardage like 3rd and 2 or 3.
3rd and 5 makes us able to pin our ears back and rattle Murray with a pass rush. Then we'll see him toss it up for grabs.
This is the key to our upcoming victory. Tigers by 17!
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CU Medallion [57156]
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M. Alexander will feast.***
Jul 26, 2013, 8:45 AM
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Orange Blooded [2772]
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Re: M. Alexander will feast.***
Jul 26, 2013, 8:50 AM
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Add Travis Blanks to the list!!
#11 is BEAST mode!!
Go Tigers!!
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Commissioner [907]
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Re: 3rd and 5 or more
Jul 26, 2013, 9:04 AM
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I hope the DE's and DT's feast on Murray's tail with an occasional LB sack on a blitzer. We gonna get him shook early and watch him crumble
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Orange Blooded [2772]
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Re: 3rd and 5 or more
Jul 26, 2013, 9:07 AM
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The key:
Stopping Gurley!
Stop the run, and they are done!!
Vic Beasley, Grady Jarrett & the boys need to be STOUT and show out for us to win.
Go Tigers!!!
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Enthusiast [121]
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Re: 3rd and 5 or more
Jul 26, 2013, 9:12 AM
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I see what you're getting at, but 3rd and 8 would be more appropriate since we averaged 7.1 yds per play last year.
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Hall of Famer [24808]
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Per attempt, per completion, or all plays?***
Jul 26, 2013, 9:19 AM
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Starter [358]
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All plays. Good for #1 in the nation ***
Jul 26, 2013, 9:31 AM
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nm
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Enthusiast [121]
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Starter [358]
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Per Att is a measure of Passing stats
Jul 26, 2013, 9:34 AM
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UGA averaged 10.0 per attempt last year which was also number one in the nation.
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Hall of Famer [24808]
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Great stats. Now, let's take into consideration # of plays.
Jul 26, 2013, 10:00 AM
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GA's 6.9 yds,/play x 68 plays/game -> ~470 yds./game
Clemson's 6 yds./play x 85 plays/game -> ~510 yds./game
Red zone scoring: Clemson #1
4th down conversions: Clemson #1
# of plays/ game: Clemson #3
Combine # of plays, ability to covert on 4th down, and red zone scoring....
Everything about the Os is relative to the Ds they face. There's no denying that both Os are outstanding. This game will be decided by which D can slow the other's O the best. I have it Clemson by 10+. We'll see.
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Hall of Famer [24808]
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Bump.***
Jul 26, 2013, 10:17 AM
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Starter [358]
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Number of plays is a volatile stat
Jul 26, 2013, 10:24 AM
[ in reply to Great stats. Now, let's take into consideration # of plays. ] |
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Clemson had a high of 102 and a low of 59. With such volatility, I'm not sure picking the average is as valid as Clemson fans would like it to be. In fact, anywhere from 69 plays up to 94 plays is within one standard deviation of the average. How can we accurately predict where Clemson will land on that scale?
I'd suspect that UGA's coaching staff is keenly aware of the gameplans teams like USCjr and VT employed to keep a lid on the total number of plays run, but I also think that "The Chad" knows he needs to run a ton of plays to have success.
It will be fun to watch it play out.
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Hall of Famer [24808]
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LSU...105. As to 4th down and red zone, that's about
Jul 26, 2013, 10:29 AM
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sustaining drives and finishing. #1 and #1.
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Starter [358]
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LSU was 100 according to CFBStats.com
Jul 26, 2013, 10:37 AM
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http://www.cfbstats.com/2012/team/147/total/offense/gamelog.html
As to the 4th down %, so what? If UGA is forcing enough fourth downs to make this stat relevant, I won't be unhappy, and I'll take our chances.
As to the Red Zone Conversions, UGA actually converted red zone TDs at a higher rate. Clemson was able to do better when FGs were taken into account. That being said, this game will be won on TDs not FGs.
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Hall of Famer [24808]
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You're intermingling stats of 14 vs. 13 games. If you're
Jul 26, 2013, 10:47 AM
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going to sight % TDs, how can the # of trips not be taken into account?
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Starter [358]
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Ummmmmm ......
Jul 26, 2013, 10:52 AM
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Percentages do take the number of trips into account.
You should know things like this before making silly responses.
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Starter [358]
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Hall of Famer [24808]
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Good catch. +1.***
Jul 26, 2013, 11:06 AM
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Starter [358]
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Look at it this way ....
Jul 26, 2013, 10:28 AM
[ in reply to Great stats. Now, let's take into consideration # of plays. ] |
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The average yards per play takes into account ~950 data points. Average plays per game has 13 or 14 data points depending upon the season. The law of large numbers indicates that the former average is bound to be much more precise than the latter.
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Hall of Famer [24808]
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I got your data points. Look at it this way. Clemson by 10+.***
Jul 26, 2013, 10:32 AM
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Starter [358]
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Thanks for confirming the validity of my post***
Jul 26, 2013, 10:40 AM
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nm
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Hall of Famer [24808]
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What "validity"?***
Jul 26, 2013, 10:48 AM
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Starter [358]
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Usually when posters have no valid response
Jul 26, 2013, 10:51 AM
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They resort to things like "here's your data points".
If you have a valid counterpoint to the law of large numbers, please share it with the group.
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Aficionado [195]
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clemson by 17?
Jul 26, 2013, 9:23 AM
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Are you serious? UGA has a great balanced offense. I expect teams to trade scores, neither team will lead by that much.
Plus many are banking on a true freshman corner in week 1 vs a solid opponent. Murray will throw at him all day.
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Hall of Famer [24808]
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17 may be a bit much but Clemson by 10+.***
Jul 26, 2013, 9:30 AM
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All-American [567]
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Re: 17 may be a bit much but Clemson by 10+.***
Jul 26, 2013, 10:41 AM
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SOLOS - I love it, I really do. You and OJ are the most consistent / persistent people I have ever seen in my life. All I can say is I "hope" you are wrong. If you aren't I will be the first to say so ... You waive your 10+ flag every day and I chuckle ... Not at the predication but the consistency.
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Hall of Famer [24808]
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Thanx. I stand by it. I'll be here 9/1 to discuss, either way***
Jul 26, 2013, 10:50 AM
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null
Message was edited by: SOLOS®
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Commissioner [907]
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Re: clemson by 17?
Jul 26, 2013, 10:57 AM
[ in reply to clemson by 17? ] |
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My point is valid if the Tigers keep UGA behind the chains on 3rd most of the night. It will be a long night for the mutts. If we only get stops on 20% of those 3rd and 5's or more, the Tigers will blow up the Dawgs. I say "if" that happens, it will be CU by 17.
I think the Dawgs averaging 7.1 ypp on the Tigers is an absurd number to believe will happen. Talk about wishful thinking....
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