Path to top 4 ACC tourney seed......

Feb 16, 2023, 12:07 PM

Not really concerned about the NET and all that, but the importance of getting a top 4 seed in the ACC tournament cannot be undersold. The "double bye" has plenty of benefits. One of which is the likelihood of a quality first round opponent (which this year means someone like Wake, NCSU, Duke or UNC). The best thing about that is even a loss doesn't likely kill you (since you already made the top 4, which implies a good finish), and a win certainly helps with the NCAA seeding. Plus, any chance of winning the whole thing increases by only having to go through 3 games at a maximum...rather than 4.

Currently, we sit at 11-4 and securely in 4th place. We are only a game out of first...and that is certainly still on the table, although it will require some serious winning (either 4 out of 5 or all 5 to end up with a share of first). But I think aiming for the top 4 is very attainable, mainly because the teams behind us are looking at some guaranteed losses and we already have a 2 game lead in the loss column on several teams. Here are the current relevant standings and who everyone plays....

1. Pitt 12-3 (@VT, GT, Syr, @ND, @Mia)
2. UVA 12-3 (ND, @BC, @UNC, CU, Lou)
3. Mia 12-4 (Wake,@VT,FSU,Pitt)
4. CU 11-4 (@Lou, Syr, @NCSU,@UVA, ND)
5. NCSU 10-6 (UNC, Wake, CU, @Duke)
6. Duke 9-6 (@Syr; Lou; VT; NCSU; @UNC)
7. Wake 9-6 (@Mia, @NCSU, ND, BC, @Syr)
8. Syr 9-6 (Duke, @CU, @Pitt, GT, Wake)
9. UNC 8-7 (@NCSU, @ND, UVA, @FSU, Duke)

I think it's pretty secure to say that a 3-2 finish for Clemson...leaving us at 14-6...would secure a top 4 seed. Among the 6 loss teams, there's a lot of "guaranteed" losses and it's very unlikely that any of them run the table. Maybe N.C. State, with their 3 game home stand, is a threat...but it seems more likely that they would drop at least one of those plus the game at Duke. I think we'll see some 7 loss teams by the end of this weekend...loser of Duke/Syracuse obviously...Wake travels to Miami...and NCSU historically struggles with UNC. Clemson has 3 very winnable games down the stretch...need to get all 3 of those and then see about taking 1 of the 2 road games (very difficult, but not impossible).

There's still a chance at 1st place, but the issue will be tiebreakers. If we can get in a solo tie with Pitt, that's the best scenario. Miami and Pitt play each other to close the season, so there's that. Aside from that, Pitt and Miami have the softer closing schedules. UVA doesn't have too much left either. Our game with them will loom large for deciding who wins the regular season.

First things first, get a win at Louisville Saturday. Yes, they are a bad team. But in their past two games they have given UVA and Miami some trouble...so we need to be alert and ready. Our record at Louisville is 0-7 all time. Two of those were in other eras, but Brownell is 0-5 at the Yum Center.

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