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110%er [7969]
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Do we all realize?
Dec 19, 2022, 1:46 PM
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These is a power shift under way in college football.It won't show up this year or next but five years out there is a new top tier order. Alabama can't compete in the NIL race. Nick Saban knows it. "I think we probably need some kind of national legislation to sort of control that to some degree, because I think there will be an imbalance relative to who can dominate college football if that's not regulated in some form or fashion."
Clemson can't compete in the NIL race either.
USC (the real one) is emerging as the new power in college football. Huge number of graduates and large sponsor deals will allow them to pull away. Their time is not to far in the future.
This entire model of college football is not sustainable.
NIL dollars that lure an athlete one year must be continually matched or increased to keep them there due to the transfer portal. Keep in mind dollars are not in infinite supply. Booster dollars that got to NIL cannot go to needed facilities upgrades. Look at TAMU's recruiting class from last year jumping ship now for another NIL payday, or Ryan Day's claim that he needs 13 million to keep his team together. NIL is not a once and done deal, every year requires more money.
The number of teams that can compete in the NIL race is small and will likely shrink. Fewer teams reduces the national interest in college football that drives advertising revenue which supports huge ESPN conference payouts. Eventually this whole house of cards collapses.
Message was edited by: revmarkg®
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All-In [26514]
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There is no reason UGA should be competitive w/ NIL
Dec 19, 2022, 1:48 PM
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no more than Bama or Clemson.
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110%er [7969]
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Georgia cranks out 2500 more graduates per year
Dec 19, 2022, 1:51 PM
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than Clemson. But, you are right, they will not be able to compete long term.
Message was edited by: revmarkg®
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All-In [36410]
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But Most UGA Degrees Yield Crap Jobs Like
Dec 20, 2022, 10:46 AM
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Strip club glitter cleaner. Eff the dawgs.
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CU Guru [1432]
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Orange Blooded [3730]
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But, do UGA grads eat HEALTHIER than CU grads?
Dec 19, 2022, 2:11 PM
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Therein, may lie the rub, which barbeque and potato salad recipe to the respective alumni consume over a 10-year life cycle?
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110%er [7993]
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Re: There is no reason UGA should be competitive w/ NIL
Dec 19, 2022, 2:09 PM
[ in reply to There is no reason UGA should be competitive w/ NIL ] |
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no more than Bama or Clemson.
UGA is a much bigger school but Georgia has a lot more businesses and industry (overall wealth) than SC plus they control most of their state where we have to share with coots.
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Orange Blooded [4035]
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110%er [5382]
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All-TigerNet [13517]
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Re: Do we all realize?
Dec 19, 2022, 1:53 PM
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I think this ultimately leads to mass consolidation and breaking out of college football away from the NCAA and forming their own championship in the process. They will then set up their own rules to govern NIL, transfers, media contracts, etc.
It has become clear the NCAA has punted on attempting to manage any of this and just letting it run on its own anyway so why not form an independent organization and become self-governing for the good of college football? I think it might be the only thing that saves college football as we know it. Otherwise, it just becomes the minor league of the NFL.
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CU Guru [1045]
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Re: Do we all realize?
Dec 19, 2022, 1:58 PM
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That's what the NCAA already is.
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All-TigerNet [13517]
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Re: Do we all realize?
Dec 19, 2022, 2:09 PM
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Only the playoff. I'm talking about a complete separation from the NCAA and an independently run college football program with the ability to self-govern and self-promote for the benefit of the colleges and the athletes that can work for both.
Right now it is just the Wild, Wild West and everyone does their own thing regardless of rules or collective interests.
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Letterman [296]
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Re: Do we all realize?
Dec 19, 2022, 2:10 PM
[ in reply to Re: Do we all realize? ] |
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Either football breaks away or NIL collapses under its own weight (like a dotcom) and boosters decide that the payback is just not there or gambling corrupts the whole sport. In some way there will be a correction because the current path is not sustainable.
I think we should not assume that college football goes on forever. It could go through a period where many lose interest or some schools may decide that they are OK in not being part of a win at all costs league. If this happens then the advertising dollar dry up.
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110%er [7969]
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I think that is one of the problems.
Dec 19, 2022, 2:20 PM
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Some think college football goes on forever. On the current trajectory, no way. But there are those that believe it will.
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Orange Blooded [3384]
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Re: Do we all realize?
Dec 19, 2022, 2:11 PM
[ in reply to Re: Do we all realize? ] |
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It doesn’t matter what the NCAA or any other ruling body for college football wants to do. All of this mess was thrust on college football by our government and lawyers going to the Supreme Court.
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Athletic Dir [865]
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Re: Do we all realize?
Dec 20, 2022, 10:13 AM
[ in reply to Re: Do we all realize? ] |
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The courts are driving all of this. The NCAA is trying to stay ahead of the courts, but if/when the courts rule against the NCAA there is nothing that can be done.
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Oculus Spirit [80376]
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Yes***
Dec 19, 2022, 1:56 PM
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All-American [552]
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Re: Do we all realize?
Dec 19, 2022, 2:01 PM
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Worse yet- Dabo says he does not want to be a part 0f this environment and takes a pro job. Don't laugh- anything is possible in this upside down world we now live in.
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All-TigerNet [13517]
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Re: Do we all realize?
Dec 19, 2022, 2:12 PM
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I could see him taking another college job but not pro. His college style would not work in an NFL locker room. We've already had the Urban Meyer experience...
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Orange Blooded [2987]
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Dabo doesn't go pro, already makes more $$$ than pro coaches
Dec 20, 2022, 11:04 AM
[ in reply to Re: Do we all realize? ] |
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But I could see Dabo saying the heck with this mess of college football as but wanting to help touch kids lives. I could easily see him becoming an Athletic Director at a big college and even more likely a large Christian University like Liberty. They have undergraduate attendance of almost 50k students. Dabo could stay in Athletics and still touch kids opportunity in life.
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Legend [17780]
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Yes
Dec 19, 2022, 2:02 PM
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And so I enjoy the success we currently have at the moment and in recent history.
Maybe we keep up …maybe we don’t. I don’t have any NIL solution and even if I did I doubt I have the sway to influence.
Only thing I’m thinking about is if I want to make a last minute trip down to the Orange Bowl. Cold as balls up here in Midwest.
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Orange Blooded [3558]
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Re: Do we all realize?
Dec 19, 2022, 2:07 PM
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What you should realize is the “power shift” you mention is not a shift from only 2 or 3 teams (Clemson/Alabama) dominating. But it’s a shift towards all of college football LEVELING out.
Transfer Portal: Allows players to not be stuck on one team for 3/4 years. Therefore Alabama,Clemson, etc. are losing players and depth that would otherwise make them the most dominant. So this levels the playing field.
NIL: Claiming that NIL leads to USC being the new power doesn’t have any merit because it hasn’t happened. It has not been seen yet that NIL makes any program DOMINANT even though it’s been only a couple of years.
College football will be more even and more random now. This season, there clearly is no dominant team. You can say Georgia, but they had a few close ones against subpar teams. There won’t be any “powers” of college football, but more teams being able to compete any given year because of transfers coming in. I don’t agree with NIL/Transfer portal, but it helps viewership and revenue. Which is what matters the most in this world “of course”.
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110%er [7969]
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Let's see whose post ages best.***
Dec 19, 2022, 2:16 PM
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CU Guru [1025]
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Leveling out?
Dec 20, 2022, 3:20 PM
[ in reply to Re: Do we all realize? ] |
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Sounds like wishful thinking - perhaps from a USuC perspective.
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Orange Blooded [4572]
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Salary Cap
Dec 19, 2022, 2:11 PM
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Unless interest in college football drops dramatically, resulting in fewer 'donors' funding NIL deals, the only way to keep a somewhat level playing field is to institute a salary cap at the Power 5 level. As it stands today, there is NO DRAFT and NO CONTRACTS. It's unlimited free agency where players are free to go to the highest bidder whenever they want.
Look to the NFL model. NCAA football is still worth less than NFL football. But it will close the gap and more money will pour into teams and conferences (through media rights and NIL and sponsorships). The NCAA will have to take up some of the mechanisms employed by the NFL to create parity. Since they can't (yet) mandate where a kid must go to school via a draft, they they'll need to get their arms around NIL money sooner rather than later. Otherwise, Rev is correct in that schools with wealthy donors, like USC, will quickly move ahead. God help us all of Stanford and Northwestern decide to get serious about football.
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CU Guru [1514]
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Re: Do we all realize?
Dec 19, 2022, 2:18 PM
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The OP wrote, "[t]his entire model of college football is not sustainable." I agree. I think this has been true for decades and NIL, and NCAAs failure to better address it, only greased the skids.
I'm a hypocrite: I love to see Clemson doing well, having the facilities, paying the coaches well...all that goes along with this, but I also realize that Clemson is supposed to be a school and football is supposed to be a game. Collectively (schools, fans and others) have done what Americans do; turned it into a huge business. Im hardly against business and business success, but why we allowed college sports to become the minor leagues for the NFL and NBA I do not understand and I am convinced it is not good for the schools or the players...
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110%er [7969]
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I agree, college football has become a minor league
Dec 19, 2022, 2:22 PM
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for the NFL. The huge winners, and they have bee for years? The NFL having a minor league at no cost to them.
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All-In [26022]
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Re: I agree, college football has become a minor league
Dec 19, 2022, 2:27 PM
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Kirby Smart, Jimbo Fisher, and Neon Deion are all buying their teams. College football has turned into nothing but an auction of athletes. Those with the most money will buy the better players. College football is not on a level playing field any more. Soon the agents will appear and finish destroying the game we loved so.
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CU Guru [1654]
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What kind of national legislation?
Dec 19, 2022, 2:30 PM
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You can’t stop people from making money on their name. Players sued and won that right.
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110%er [7969]
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The original behind NIL was using your name/image/
Dec 19, 2022, 2:36 PM
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likeness to sell products. Ie, endorsements etc. What is happening now is there is no connection between what is being called NIL dollars, and endorsements. Essentially what is happening now is boosters are paying players to come play for their school. That was never the intent of NIL and that is the point Saban was making.
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Orange Blooded [3730]
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I disagree. People who released NIL KNEW EXACTLY...
Dec 19, 2022, 2:40 PM
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...what this was going to create.
They're not THAT stupid, just GREEDY.
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Orange Blooded [3730]
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Indeed. They got exactly what they wanted...
Dec 19, 2022, 2:39 PM
[ in reply to What kind of national legislation? ] |
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...and what we see today in the NIL-TP and roster chaos is BY DESIGN.
The people that brought this entire situation to college football are LAUGHING their a553es off.
"They" think this is all real FUNNY!
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Orange Blooded [3719]
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Orange Blooded [3730]
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Yep...this is pretty much what I believe will happen...
Dec 19, 2022, 2:35 PM
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I call these high-rolling NIL teams with their (4*/5* rosters) Club 12, as they will become the perennial twelve (12) teams that make the playoffs.
The Club 12 members will need some puff/non-Club 12 members to fill out their schedules, sort of like Clemson plays SC State or The Citadel or Presbyterian with a $1M payout. So, from time-to-time, Clemson, UNC, Ga Tech, Wake Forest, etc. will get a chance to play a Club 12 member.
But, these 75-100 non-Club 12 universities (I think Clemson ends up in this category) and teams will have to form their own 2*/3* league and championship game, leaving the Club 12 as a 16-team, elite, semi-pro league.
There maybe some movement in and out of "the Club", but it will be based strictly upon a committed minimum base team aggregate salary as defined by signed NIL contracts..
Teams that can meet the NIL team minimum for a 4-yr period could qualify for Club 12, but membership slots will not open and close that often. I would think based on a 4-year window for membership add/deletes.
You think my assessment is outrageous and stupid? Probably so, but I point to Ryan Day's comments on his request for $30M per year to maintain his roster.
That sure as h311 sounds like a MINIMUM team salary to me!
The UPSIDE to this is that the non-Club 12 once again, reverts back to what college football was intended to be.
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Legend [17612]
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Some of the right questions & answers are in your post ...
Dec 19, 2022, 2:48 PM
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But I missed a reference to TV money. The B1G and SEC contracts paying $100M-plus per school per year will begin to separate the haves from the have-nots quickly.
And yes, the large schools with interested wealthy patrons incl. Ohio State, Texas, and Texas A&M will have many opportunities and a wide moat to flourish with the right HC's and QB's. Clemson Football's largest concern at present is its ACC affiliation. South Carolina, Rutgers, Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern, Illinois, Vandy and other perennial losers will soon be bringing in 3 times the TV revenue of Clemson and will spend this money on facilities and recruiting.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: Do we all realize?
Dec 19, 2022, 2:50 PM
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Nobody wants to mention it, but college football NEEDS revenue sharing along with an NFL style play off model.
Yes, revenue sharing is a socialist business model, but look at the product the NFL puts on TV. Absolutely fabulous games every week. Look at last year‘s NFL playoff games. Any top-tier team can lose any week. The best team in the league will have two or three losses at the end of the year. Serious competition every week. This translates into much more valuable media rights.
Alternatively, look at college football, lots of blowouts, lots of games were at one team has no chance. Play off semi final games typically not that competitive. Only handful of teams have a true shot at winning the natty.
I don’t think this will happen anytime soon. I think we will go through through a few iterations and will not see revenue sharing and a commercially attractive (TVrights) playoff format for another 10 years or so.
Either way, I feel very fortunate to be a Clemson fan. I think the athletic department and the board of trustees Clemson have a long term and very sensible approach and will keep us in a strong position.
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All-In [30837]
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Clemson football will survive
Dec 19, 2022, 3:27 PM
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even if they have to JOin the sunbelt.
I'll still go
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Legend [18262]
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Re: Do we all realize?
Dec 19, 2022, 3:36 PM
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Ummm the major hole in your theory is Bama has one of the best classes ever coming in and we are right in the top 10 which is where we typically are because we don’t over sign. Yes other teams will start to get more talent but what many fail to understand is talent doesn’t win at an elite level ?♂️?♂️
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Legend [19692]
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Re: Do we all realize?
Dec 19, 2022, 3:39 PM
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It would suit me fine if coaches and players had to stand behind their commitments and contracts. Coach signs a multi-year deal with a school and a student commits to play and both have to stick it out until the end. But that won't happen.
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110%er [8538]
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Re: Do we all realize?
Dec 19, 2022, 4:26 PM
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Our government has much bigger fish to fry than whether an Alabama or a Clemson can compete. NIL is capitalism and the law is already on the books.
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All-TigerNet [10469]
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College football as we knew it is dying.***
Dec 19, 2022, 5:11 PM
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110%er [9727]
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No.
1
Dec 19, 2022, 5:20 PM
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Different schools will do things in different ways, which is nothing new.
I would hesitate to assume the programs who purchase the most expensive players will be the best programs.
In fact, any evidence we’ve seen thus far actually says quite the opposite.
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All-In [44050]
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Sounds like a ready-made excuse has already been prepared.
Dec 19, 2022, 5:34 PM
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If we aren’t as good in the future, it isn’t because of recruiting misses, poor development of players, or game planning issues. No, it’s due to NIL and poor Clemson not being able to compete.
Nice.
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110%er [7969]
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Sorry Judge, if you don't believe NIL and the transfer
Dec 20, 2022, 10:07 AM
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portal are forever changing the landscape of college football, practically every expert in the sport disagrees with you. But thanks for high-jacking a post to take yet another shot at the current coaching staff. In the meantime keep blaming facilities, fan support, you know your ready made excuses for BBall failures.
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Hall of Famer [24567]
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"USC (the real one) is emerging as the new power in college football"....
Dec 19, 2022, 5:36 PM
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I'll believe it once they field a defense that's worth a D@mn....
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CU Guru [1796]
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Re: Do we all realize?
Dec 20, 2022, 1:55 PM
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Yes, I agree the new NIL/Portal model for college football is unsustainable, but I think capitalism will sort it out. Right now, the people who control the TV rights (means of scaleable production) dictate to the people who control the football teams (product) how the football teams will run their show. The purpose in doing this is so both entities can maximize their revenue, as I am sure is obvious to everyone. The introduction of NIL (by a civil judge and lawyers, so people outside the group of people in control of the sport) has thrown a great big monkey wrench into the whole business model the controlling group had going for themselves. Now, just like a dozen or so years ago when the excess pile of money started chasing after coaches and new facilities, the same (only bigger) pile of money is starting to chase after players. The result will be an elite class of relatively few teams that everybody wants to watch on TV and then there will be everybody else. At that point, the only thing keeping the lesser teams relatively competitive will be conference profit sharing deals. Care to guess how long it takes before the elite schools leave their conferences to join a super conference featuring the elite football programs? By that time, there will be such a high barrier to entry (spending big bucks on facilities, coaches and players) that most schools will be locked out of the elite club.
Unless some controlling authority steps in and regulates the college football industry, this is what is bound to happen.
Anyone remember when professional baseball was unregulated and the Yankees became the (almost) perennial World Series champions back in the 1920's, 30's, 40's and 50's?
I am all for capitalism, just not PURE capitalism. In any case, the college football world is changing very quickly and since I can't control it, I will just sit back and watch. It certainly will be entertaining, no matter what eventually happens. I would hate to see my Clemson team left behind, but that seems like a real possibility (for reasons already mentioned by countless others) unless something changes.
Sorry this was so long. I got on my soapbox, I guess.
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Varsity [223]
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Re: Do we all realize?
Dec 20, 2022, 6:11 PM
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https://www.axios.com/2021/12/08/espn-streaming-subscribers-cable-disney
The $$ supply is not unlimited. According to this ESPN will have to figure how to replace $3B in lost revenue over the next 3 years or so. The answer according to Disney is add sports betting. When the gamblers start controlling college football well then..oh boy…
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CU Guru [1198]
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Re: Do we all realize?
Dec 20, 2022, 6:15 PM
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I'm not sure about that. Look at Texas A&M. They bought all of those players using the NIL loopholes but ended up with a losing season. It seems like you can buy players but you can't buy a team. Clemson's approach might just be the right one.
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