GIVE AN AWARD
Use your CatCoins™ to grant this post a special award and grant the author bonus CatCoins™!


YOUR BALANCE
monetization_on
Welp, here goes the home market.
General Boards - The Lounge
add New Topic
Replies: 43  

Welp, here goes the home market.

emoji_events [5]
May 25, 2022, 8:28 AM
Reply

c&p'd since paywall. Honestly, if I had the free time to do so (and you could remove my hatred of moving), I'd list my place this weekend and go rent for 12 months, likely coming back into a buyer's market for my next house.


https://www.barrons.com/articles/new-home-sales-fall-recession-warning-51653409398




S?ales of new single-family homes fell sharply fell in April for the fourth straight month, dragged down by high prices and rising mortgage rates. And the drop has a top real estate economist sounding the alarm about the country’s economic health.
New residential sales last month declined 16.6% from March’s 709,000, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 591,000, government numbers out Tuesday show. Consensus estimates expected a 1.7% decline, to 761,000.
The month-over-month slide was the biggest since 2013 and the rate of sales was the lowest in two years, according to data.
Robert Dietz, the chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders called the plunge “a clear recession warning for the overall economy for the quarters ahead.”
It’s also the latest sign that the residential real estate market is slowing down: Rising mortgage rates and home prices have put pressure on home affordability.
“All in, a significant number of prospective home buyers are being priced out of the market,” Dietz wrote in a blog post Tuesday.
Existing-home sale numbers out last week from the National Association of Realtors showed a decline, and the trade group’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said he expects further drops.
“Higher home prices and sharply higher mortgage rates have reduced buyer activity,” Yun said in a statement.
Last month, the median sales price of a new home in April was $450,600, a19.6% increase from a year ago. And the average weekly rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage reached 5% for the first time since 2011, according to Freddie Mac, a government-sponsored mortgage company. As of last week, the average rate was 5.25%, more than 2 percentage points higher than its final reading in 2021.
On Wall Street, builder stocks were trading lower. D.R. Horton (ticker: DHI), Lennar (LEN), NVR (NVR), and PulteGroup (PHM), the four largest public builders by market capitalization, were down between 2.5% and 3.8%.

2022 orange level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpgringofhonor-obed.jpg flag link


Home sales are not a key to economic health

emoji_events [6]
May 25, 2022, 8:30 AM
Reply

many of the purchases are not made by private home buyers anyways. It's by investors.

2022 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link


Many home sales are by investors?

[2]
May 25, 2022, 8:42 AM
Reply

Every home sale is by an investor! Jeebus, cooch. Stick to PE gym cleaning, bus driving, and pallet mgmt...


Message was edited by: bengaline®


2022 purple level member flag link

I think this is what he was talking about

[3]
May 25, 2022, 8:47 AM
Reply

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/real-estate/who-s-outbidding-you-tens-thousands-dollars-house-hedge-fund-n1274597


2022 orange level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpgringofhonor-tiggity-110.jpg flag link

Tough times create strong men.
Strong men create easy times.
Easy times create weak men.
Weak men create tough times.


Well...that's not true at all***

[2]
May 25, 2022, 9:04 AM
Reply



badge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link

Great post, appreciate the info showing me where

[1]
May 25, 2022, 9:09 AM
Reply

the article got it wrong.

2022 orange level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpgringofhonor-obed.jpg flag link


I wasn't replying to your article...

[3]
May 25, 2022, 9:14 AM
Reply

I was commenting on FaceBookeCoach's assertion that new home starts is not an economic driver. Do I really need to comment further on that point?

badge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link

Sorry about that....

[3]
May 25, 2022, 9:15 AM
Reply

I'm still getting used to having shidposter's on ignore. It looked like your reply was to me.

2022 orange level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpgringofhonor-obed.jpg flag link


LOL...might be something I need to look in to.***

[3]
May 25, 2022, 9:16 AM
Reply



badge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link

Something has to give. I mean values are skyrocketing

[3]
May 25, 2022, 8:43 AM
Reply

and interest rates are rising, it's insanity to keep buying at some point. I think 6% mortgages and 8.3% inflation are combining to cool things. Things have to cool at some point.

2022 orange level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpgringofhonor-tiggity-110.jpg flag link

Tough times create strong men.
Strong men create easy times.
Easy times create weak men.
Weak men create tough times.


They just bulldozed another 45 acres for a new tract

[4]
May 25, 2022, 8:47 AM
Reply

Near my mom.

Got a feeling it will be a mud hole with a bunch of half built houses this time next year.

2022 orange level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpgringofhonor-cu85tiger.jpg flag link


“When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?”
John Maynard Keynes
“Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.”
Isaac Asimov


Yeah, I have been assuming that selling Mom's house in a few

[2]
May 25, 2022, 8:48 AM
Reply

months aint gonna be nearly as easy as it would have been right now.

ringofhonor-greenr.jpg flag link

Maybe something you haven't considered but should now...

[3]
May 25, 2022, 8:57 AM
Reply

Renting to a nice family of Irish Travelers?

ringofhonor-rhtig.jpg flag link


True, and due to the Fair Housing Act,

[2]
May 25, 2022, 9:11 AM
Reply

future buyers can't explicitly ask if Gypsies have ever been in the house before.


Have you considered selling it it to one of your children and their family when they marry one of my offspring and start a new life in Clover, or wherever TF the house is? You can seller finance the mortgage and have a nice semi-reliable stream of income. PLUS - if you and your wife have a nasty divorce, you can just show up on the front porch, suitcase in hand, and move back in!

2022 white level member flag link

S??? ????? ???? ??? ??????? ?????? ???? ??? ??????,
S??? ????? ?? ?? ???????? ???? ? ??????? ??? ????? ?????..


Ever wanted to cut bait and bounce? That is my relationship

[3]
May 25, 2022, 9:17 AM
Reply

with York County.

ringofhonor-greenr.jpg flag link

One thing I've always said about you my friend....

[3]
May 25, 2022, 9:32 AM
Reply

you'd make one HELLUVA parking lot grilled cheese salesman.



ringofhonor-rhtig.jpg flag link


If only someone would sell me a VW Bus to travel show to

[4]
May 25, 2022, 9:38 AM
Reply

show slinging grilled cheeses and ganja goo balls.

ringofhonor-greenr.jpg flag link

This "market" hasn't been about transaction volume

[3]
May 25, 2022, 8:59 AM
Reply

it's been about prices skyrocketing. Transactions have been down since Covid to the extent that many realtors are leaving the industry, not as many new ones are entering, and the new ones that do are turning over faster than before.

I think rates combined with people having ENOUGH of the artificial price increases are causing transactions to drop.

Inventory is still fvcked.

Thanks for listening to my Juan talk.

flag link

Huh?

[1]
May 25, 2022, 9:08 AM
Reply

I'm not sure the "transactions are down" statistic is correct....maybe on new construction, but not on existing homes, which is where the crazy appreciation is coming from. Realtors are leaving the industry because the "bidding war/competing with all-cash corporate buyer/you'd better know the pocket listings" is a new dynamic---some can adapt, some can't.

Appreciation does seem to be coming from a shortage of inventory (likely that new home shortage driving buyers to existing homes) combined with the bizarre new corporate investors entering the home market like we've never seen before.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/226144/us-existing-home-sales/

2022 orange level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpgringofhonor-obed.jpg flag link


Yeah...have a close family friend that's a realtor in...

[2]
May 25, 2022, 9:24 AM
Reply

Aiken.

She's been at it a long time and is a high performer and she had her largest year ever in 2021. She already did more through April 22 than all of 2021. She said much of what you said...the high performers are going lights out, but the part-times and low-end are struggling because they haven't adapted or can't adapt.

badge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link

Could be true across the US, I'm speaking more about the

[1]
May 25, 2022, 10:11 AM
Reply

local market here. Admittedly most of my info is anecdotal based on some folks I am close to that are long time realtors, brokers, etc. I did find this little nugget below. Small sample of data but it's in line with what I'm hearing around here.

In April 2022, Greenville home prices were up 17.2% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $340K. On average, homes in Greenville sell after 38 days on the market compared to 53 days last year. There were 220 homes sold in April this year, down from 256 last year.

This will show a good visual of just how low inventory is compared with the previous ~10 years.
https://www.greatergreenvilleareahomes.com/greenville-real-estate-market-statistics/


So yeah, "transactions" is probably not correct. It's low inventory driving outrageous demand, weird corporate buyers, etc.

flag link

There's a house in our neighborhood

[1]
May 25, 2022, 10:14 AM
Reply

a double wide on 1/2 acre of land. Selling for 175k. BEFORE she even put it on the market, she had 7 phones calls for asking price.

2022 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link


Nah, I get that Greenville is hot.

[1]
May 25, 2022, 10:26 AM
Reply

Nashville even more so. I suspect that either place would be later to arrive at a downward trend than Sandusky, OH or Des Moines.

My parents are about to list my grandparent’s place in Gower (bought new for about $30k in the late 60’s) and the volume of calls from realtors dying for the listing has been insane.

2022 orange level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpgringofhonor-obed.jpg flag link


Realtor commish on listings right now is

[1]
May 25, 2022, 11:24 AM
Reply

darn near theft. Sign in yard, MLS listing, sort through 10 offers.

Realtor commish on the buyer side is darn near theft for the opposite reason. Drive around and show 74 houses over a 6 month period, submit offers on 15 and lose all 15 of them.

flag link

Frand in Greenville listed their house for 350k last week.


May 25, 2022, 11:34 AM
Reply

First thing next morning had offer for 375k cash. Next day had another offer for $380k cash. 10 years ago this house would have gone for around 180k, tops.

2022 purple level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpg flag link

"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."
- H. L. Mencken


2023 looks strong so far***

[1]
May 25, 2022, 10:13 AM
Reply



2022 orange level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpg flag link


I'd make sure you

emoji_events [6]
May 25, 2022, 9:18 AM
Reply

checked the rental availability and pricing before you sell.

Rentals rates are increasing as well. Unless you plan to live in south america in a jungle somewhere which may not be a bad idea. RHTig could provide some startup guidance on war lording in subtropical climates. His side of Cherry road is an entirely different environment as you know.

We sold our estate on the golf course last year but didn't actually have a place to go. Not sure we'd do that again.

Inflation and higher interest rates make lenders queazy about loaning to those on the high housing price bubble based on what I've been reading. But I believe in Bigfoot too. So there's that.

badge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link


Important question about your old home

[3]
May 25, 2022, 9:27 AM
Reply

Was it an estate or a compound?

2022 orange level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpgringofhonor-obed.jpg flag link


estate with only one

[2]
May 25, 2022, 9:41 AM
Reply

grand home overlooking a green with 5 multiple level decks.

Even could remove one rail (Fireball's engineering skills) and hit balls during bourbon fests down to green for closest to the pin shots.

Then we moved into a loft type apartment while we tried to figure out what to do. No bueno

badge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link


renting sucks.

[1]
May 25, 2022, 10:27 AM
Reply

It was awesome when I lived on the island and could walk on the beach every day or walk to the windjammer, or just you know...live on an island...but renting in just a normal 'hood in a house that looks like something I had rented while I was in college..sucks.

badge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link

Re: renting sucks.

[1]
May 25, 2022, 10:38 AM
Reply



2022 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link


Isn't this the outcome the Fed was hoping for when they

[4]
May 25, 2022, 9:29 AM
Reply

raised rates? And considering how ridiculous the housing market has been the past few years, this seems like a reasonable and positive development.

"Rising mortgage rates and home prices have put pressure on home affordability." So, supply and demand are affecting prices? Remarkable!

We freak out when house prices skyrocket and then we freak out when house prices come down.



badge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link


Who’s freaking out?

[2]
May 25, 2022, 9:34 AM
Reply

Don’t believe there was anything in my post that was hysterical or emotional. I basically said these skyrocketing appreciation rates should be slowing and reversing, which seems like it should be the case.

2022 orange level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpgringofhonor-obed.jpg flag link


Sorry - I was referring to the media, not you.

[2]
May 25, 2022, 9:41 AM
Reply

The stories are always either how unaffordable housing is or OMG THE MARKET IS CRASHING. It rustles my jimmies.

badge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link


sold house last fri way over value

[3]
May 25, 2022, 9:41 AM
Reply



2022 white level memberbadge-donor-25yr.jpg flag link

All real estate is local, I guess like politics.

[2]
May 25, 2022, 10:14 AM
Reply

It hasn't really slowed down much around here. And prices are still going up. There is just no inventory. Average time on market is 8 days, down from 10 days a year ago. All houses that go for sale...sell. For sale turnover rate is 100% in 30 days.

For instance:

In 29464, a zip code that has 21,175 homes in it (according to the post office), as of right now there are 5 SFH (not condos, townhomes, but actuall houses. etc) for sale below $800,000. For prices above that, there are 46 more houses. There are 51 houses for sale out of 21,175.

Statistically, if all the current sellers sold their house for $1, could that even be considered a "crash"? Or just one weird anomaly? Houses for sale represent only .3% of the market.

badge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link

What I don't get is the unusual presence of investment

[1]
May 25, 2022, 11:04 AM
Reply

purchases, hedge funds and the like. In some places 20-30% of homes are selling at inflated prices, above asking price, to hedge funds and investment firms. And I see why, because prices are skyrocketing. But it reeks of the stupidity of buying high. It's as if they see this playing out for a longer term. I've seen social media videos of supposed realtors who say this is the future of real estate. It can't be sustained. Are the hedge funds thinking they can rent the things for a profit in the future? Because if buyers (normal people) are tapped out at 6% mortgages with 8% inflation, then renters will be tapped out at a similar rental point as the mortgage payment. If you have an older property locked in at lower rates, then you can make more renting. But buying now, to rent, is equally as bad an idea as taking out the mortgage at these rates (given inflation).

Just don't get the investor involvement. Not sure how deep it goes, but if the investors are buying up these houses for a quick turnaround sale as soon as demand starts to wane, there will be a crash as they can't unload these properties fast enough. This is a similar setup as the housing crisis in 2008. In that example though, investors gobbled up MBS after seeing the market climb, leveraging that debt as collateral, even though that presumed asset became a debt liability for the biggest investors. It could end up being a situation where the home becomes a toxic debt on the part of a financial institution burned, rather than a borrower burned on a irresponsible loan.

2022 orange level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpgringofhonor-tiggity-110.jpg flag link

Tough times create strong men.
Strong men create easy times.
Easy times create weak men.
Weak men create tough times.


Somebody thinks there is some life in real estate still..

[1]
May 25, 2022, 10:05 AM
Reply

https://nypost.com/2022/05/11/goldman-sachs-backed-firms-buy-entire-florida-community-for-45m/

badge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link

Rent down here is crazy. Seasonal people with big $$$

[1]
May 25, 2022, 10:13 AM
Reply

squeezing out the local/year rounders.

Not my problem, but a problem.

flag link

It will only be your problem if you sell.

[1]
May 25, 2022, 10:17 AM
Reply

Or renters move in next door.

badge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link

Well I'm not dumb enough to sell without somewhere to go

[1]
May 25, 2022, 10:22 AM
Reply

first. I live in a community with a pretty strict HOA which is both annoying and awesome.

I'm stashing money away waiting for all the people who are paying inflated prices to need to get out.

flag link

Stashing money away is never a bad idea

[1]
May 25, 2022, 10:24 AM
Reply

but there are so many people saying the same thing you are..(I'm hoping for a crash so I can actually buy a house where I want to live) Even if there were a mass sell off event...I don't think it would affect the market like some to think it would.

badge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link

It’s bc interest rates went up.

[3]
May 25, 2022, 10:29 AM
Reply

My home goes on the market in about 2 weeks but I’m really not worried bc of the location and it all being brand new on the inside now. Fingers crossed.

badge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link

Also it depends on where we are.


May 25, 2022, 10:42 AM
Reply

I went to the bank yesterday to deposit a 10k check and the teller and I were talking about homes. He said he had sold his home in Seattle for 650k and then moved here and bought the same type home for 350k.

So there are gonna be these people moving from liberal areas to here and the home prices are 40% less. They think it’s a steal.

badge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link

Replies: 43  

TIGER TICKETS

FB GAME: Season Tickets
FOR SALE: Lower north stands. Section M, row M. Will transfer electronically when receive. $3000.

Buy or Sell CU Tickets and More in Tiger Tickets!

General Boards - The Lounge
add New Topic
556 people have read this post