The orange clown prince scammed, mislead, hoodwinked, bamboozled
Let’s go through a checklist
Price of “grocery” - still high, eggs still high Wars that he’ll stop before day 1 - Vlad Pu Pu, said I’ll do what I want. War escalating The economy- it’s a bouncing ball, but mainly not good. Don’t even get me started on the BIG crappy bill Tariffs - no real deals to speak of, and nearly all got smacked down for the unconstitutional use Alienating our friends and cuddling up with our enemies
Their response will be but but but what about Joe Biden…..Copper coat is still calling Pooty’s war against Ukraine Biden’s war. This cat STILL says it would not have started if he was president!!! Meanwhile, Vlad is giving him the big old middle finger right now. 😆
The Dems do not care much about the working class, the GOP flat out hates them. Just look at their policies and ignore their words, it is as plain as day.
Take AOC, for example. She used to bartend. How many of the 535 Congress(wo)men or 100 Senators ever tended bar or waited tables? I don't find her particularly likable, but every Republican and a whole lot of Democrats believe that she isn't worthy of the seat she sits in because she isn't well-heeled and generationally wealthy. The federal government has become so ivory-towered that neither side has even a remote concept of the challenges the poor and middle class face, some 60% of the country.
Empires fall when you push the large majority of the population into poverty (or further into poverty) by stacking the deck so heavily that there's no longer such a thing as "pulling yourself up by the bootstraps". And we still have people right here on this board with $110K/year jobs caping for the ultra-wealthy, like they're on the same team.
and I think one could make the case that there is more opportunity now for one to change their station in life than any other time in modern history.
Sure, cost of living is an issue an some/many places, but it's not debilitating to the degree to hold someone down...at least if they're open to working.
In my area, you can get out of high school and get a job in manufacturing making $20/hr with a pretty fast opportunity for increases. And, many places offer tuition reimbursement if you're interested in a college education. We have multiple 18-20 yr olds working for our company that are getting their college paid for by the company. In 6-ish years, they'll have a college degree and no debt...all while working with full benefits and starting a 401k account at a very early age. And I'll for dang sure find a position for them on our staff. Proven hard-worker that makes good decisions and knows the manufacturing side of our business? yes please
If you want to work and can show up on time, you have opportunities in this country.
When an administration is actively attacking education, from primary through higher education, and making healthcare even more expensive (or unobtainable) than it already is for the bottom half of the country, and punishing the media and those those that speak out against what they're doing....they're pushing hard in that direction.
Certainly there is still plenty of opportunity, but the level of opportunity has been trending steadily downward for the last half century, in my opinion.
We disagree for sure on the trending of opportunity. I look at now versus when I got out of Clemson in 1994 and I would take now in a heartbeat in terms of opportunity (not music).
And, honest question, how is the current admin making healthcare more expensive for the bottom half of the country?
current bill passes. Also has substantial cuts to ACA marketplace, which could leave another 4 million uninsured. I'm no rocket surgeon, but I think being uninsured means healthcare is more expensive since you're paying out of pocket. Or not paying at all because you forgo healthcare, which is also pretty expensive, just not quantified in dollars.
11MM + 4MM = 15MM people that might have more expensive/less/no health insurance.
15MM is 4.4% of the US population
I assume we both agree that's a high number, but it's pretty far from "bottom half" of the country being impacted. These 4.4% are likely "part" of the bottom half, but the entire bottom half/50% of the country isn't being impacted.
And please don't mistake this for an endorsement of the bill...just trying to settle on the facts here.
Safe to say we've lost the war. It was a long shot anyways.
My 2 main goals as stated prior were BTC reserve (eh, kinda. Plus capitulation into gov spending means my net worth should 5x cover the next decade) and RFK.
He's making good progress.
Everything else is everything the establishment wants. Same as it ever was.
I hope it all comes crashing down when all these ####### boomers need it most.
Sha256 or any other man-made encryption algo will be shredded on day one by quantum machines.
Even beyond quantum, the security model isn’t bullet proof and will inevitably be challenged by a capable nation state if it ever became an existential threat.
The fact that our government wants to stake out treasury in crypto should be alarming to everyone.
I don't need to outrun the bear, I need to outrun you.
If BTC falls to Quantum, please elaborate on how current financial tech stacks, including CME, ICE and foreign stock exchanges, are prepared to address the same security concerns.
You think quantum won't be able to crack your bank of america password with letters, capitalizations, numbers and special characters. lol.
id venture to say that I’ve dabbled with crypto more than 99.9% of the people on this board, not only as an enthusiast, but as a miner of multiple families of coins including btc, eth, cash, etc, but also as a solidity dev.
Any industry based on encryption isn’t ready for the chaos that will happen when quantum machines emerge as the new computing paradigm, which includes swift, etc.
Quantum resistant encryption is presently bogged down in immature mathematical theory. It will probably take a couple of generations applying massive amounts of AI compute to solve, so it’s a race against time which is a risky place to park your wealth.
and how bad it actually is depends on this administration or the next.
Russel Napier, the keeper of the Library of Mistakes, is someone who I think understands the risk part better than anyone. He was a guest on the 100 year pivot series and articulates the big picture of the moment better than anyone else I have come across.
and the worldwide tariff strategy, both in terms of the abuse of power and the general economic theory.
But...I don't think the country is about to fold or think the abnormalities in the bond market spell total doom. I also think crytpo is for suckers, but that's another topic all together
are signals for fiscal infrastructure issues that will need to be addressed. the only way to address these issues is YCC policies. YCC policies are CBs buying sovereign debt. That creates asset inflation and stifles wage growth. That's a bullish use case for any asset with fixed quantities.
Your position on crypto is indicative of your lack of education on the matter, and quite frankly, the global financial system as whole.
The biggest gripe, however, is not solely based on the bond market activity. It's what the bond market activity is telling us. Uncontrolled spending, at the levels we're seeing now versus what you guys are used to seeing, creates an unavoidable situation that spirals out of control.
Japan is telling us where we go from here. The one astronomical difference in Japan vs the US (and quite frankly the rest of the West) is that the Japanese culture has a demonstrably higher savings rate per capita. Meaning the people of that nation have a culture that enables them to weather fiscal retardedness from their bankers. We do not have that.
As a seasoned C-Suite near boomer guy, sure you've heard the "this time's different", so I admire the scoffing at the situation. However, per the tape, we're in unprecedented circumstances due to those policies cheered on by your generation, and my generation is going to have to clean this #### up. Thus, my conclusion of collapse as soon as possible warrants a faster turn time once we've found bottom. My investment thesis is entirely wrapped around the notion to allocate TAUM into asset classes with fixed quantities that can weather the inevitable monetary policy changes to combat the ######## that's going on in the global financial markets.
One of us will be right. As you know, this is a zero sum game.
mine is based off of rhetoric versus reality and I'm commenting on it in terms of as an "investment". It certainly has some fintech applications, but that's not going to directly lead to an investment vehicle. If something meaningful happens, it's going to be a utility and not a tangible privately-held asset.
As for US fiscal control...nothing positive will happen until someone is willing to take on entitlements and that sure ain't Trump nor anyone in Congressional leadership at the moment. Paul Ryan and/or John Kasich deciding to return to the stage might be our best hope. With that said, I don't believe we're anywhere near the breaking point like you seem to think.
And you're right in that one of us will end up being correct.
Another difference of opinion...no politician will save us from this. We have crossed the threshold, and the only shot of correcting it was an immediate about face. By the next election cycle it won't be fixable as it will continue to spiral out of control.
That same compounding interest that got those stock options and that boomer pension so fat...add 6 0's to that at roughly the same clip with an additional 2T in principal getting added every year.
- - - and in greatly reducing the quantities of fentanyl coming into the country from both the southern -&- northern borders.
The tariff policy is akin to being able to walk and chew gum at the same time.
Both Mexico and Canada were told, very early in Trump-47 admin, that it would be THEIR responsibility to stop the influx of illegals traveling through their respective countries and eventually crossing into America.
After initially sassing Trump, they both shut up and got to work when Trump wielded the tariff hammer threat.
Since then, both Mex & CAN have largely stopped the influx of non-Mex & non-CAN migrants INTO their respective countries. Subsequently, the hoards of multi-national into the USA via Mex and CAN have pretty much dried up.
(*). Without the hoards of illegals as per the Biden admin entering America, border security agents are now much more effective at interdicting drug mules. Thus, the cartels have been suffering disproportionate losses relative to the quantities of drugs that end up squeaking through the cracks.
50
