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FB Update: Computer simulation favors Clemson over Alabama
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Replies: 28  

FB Update: Computer simulation favors Clemson over Alabama


Jan 5, 2016, 5:40 PM

 
Computer simulation favors Clemson over Alabama

Read Update »


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Re: FB Update: Computer simulation favors Clemson over Alabama


Jan 5, 2016, 5:44 PM

well that's not a good sign. They usually have us loosing in those simulations. Oh well, we still are favored as underdogs!!

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Re: FB Update: Computer simulation favors Clemson over Alabama


Jan 5, 2016, 5:46 PM

38-13 for me! One can only wish. :)

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Re: FB Update: Computer simulation favors Clemson over Alabama

[1]
Jan 5, 2016, 5:51 PM

I ran it 10 times Clemson won 6 my fave was CU 34-0

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Re: FB Update: Computer simulation favors Clemson over Alabama

[1]
Jan 5, 2016, 5:53 PM

I switched it to Neutral field and the results were not so great. I hope for a large "Home" crowd in Glendale!

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Re: FB Update: Computer simulation favors Clemson over Alabama


Jan 5, 2016, 5:57 PM

The first sim I ran was the best. We won 52-24. Gallman had 217 yards rushing and 3 tds. Henry had 67 yards.

I'll be satisfied if it plays out that way.

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It has Cain playing. Also, mine had Gallman going for 243 4 tds Watson no rushing yards.


Jan 5, 2016, 6:00 PM

Not likely but I'd take it.

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It has Cain playing. Also, mine had Gallman going for 243 4 tds Watson no rushing yards.


Jan 5, 2016, 6:00 PM

Not likely but I'd take it.

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Re: FB Update: Computer simulation favors Clemson over Alabama


Jan 5, 2016, 6:09 PM

Mine had Deon Cain scoring a TD. That's just not nice.

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YOU HEAR THAT, BAMA!!! WE'RE GOING SMOKE Y'ALL!!!


Jan 5, 2016, 6:20 PM

Take that 0.2 point beating and like it!!!

Now let's see what my simulation does...

~JKB

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This thing is realistic!


Jan 5, 2016, 6:46 PM

In my simulation Clemson wins, yet Henry wins Player of the Game. Glad to see the ESPN/Finebum b.s. algorithm was added into the framework of the simulation. ??

~JKB

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54.5% of the time we win every time***


Jan 5, 2016, 6:26 PM



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short term deviation

[1]
Jan 5, 2016, 6:42 PM

500 simulations is not a large enough sample size to be relevant. All these stats tell us is what we already knew, this game is basically a coin flip. Still nice to see that it thinks we actually have a chance, since all those idiots on TV simulate the game in their head and bammer wins 100-0 every time

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The very first simulation I ran for the OU


Jan 5, 2016, 6:44 PM

Game predicted us winning 37-13. Thought that was pretty cool

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My System says 32-21 Clemson


Jan 6, 2016, 10:36 AM

I've been doing this for awhile with good results. If I don't get the score right I ususlly pick the winner correctly. I see a mismatch in our defense against the Bama offense. Derrick Henry should not have been the Heisman Trophy winner. When you give the ball to one person all the time then, yes, you are going to gain yards but when it came to yards per carry he was way down the list. I'm not too concerned about him. I'm more concerned about Shaq getting healthy enough to be able to play effectively.

CU Offense vs Bama Defense

Clemson has played very well against good defenses and Deshaun Watson makes
it look sooooo easy. No doubt, he is a study of the game!! Bama's pass
defense is their weakness - if you call 18th in the country a weakness!
This is where Clemson will have to step up their game because yards on the
ground will be tough to get. No doubt Clemson will try to run the ball and
see what success they can have against the best rush defense in the nation.
As you well know, you have to try and run the ball to keep defenses honest.
Jonathan Allen is a beast on defense for Bama. I watched him play for Stone
Bridge High School in 2011 and 2012 (I worked/car pooled with the starting
QB's father) when I lived in Northern Virginia and he dominated. He's very
smart and disciplined. His dad was (or still is) in the military so he has
a good upbringing. I knew he would do well at Bama when he signed in 2013.
If we can't run the ball then Allen becomes a sack threat. I'm counting on
Deshaun having another good game if we are to win.

CU Defense vs Bama Offense

MSU's pass defense made Jake Coker look good! That's what happens when you
play against the 75th ranked pass defense. Deshaun would shred a pass
defense like that. Henry only averaged 3.8 yds a carry and that's what
happens when you play a good rush defense. But that's all the MSU defense
had so Bama took advantage of that. Clemson is no slacker in rush defense
at 18th in the country. Bama will have trouble scoring a lot against
Clemson's defense. Clemson has one of the most balanced defenses in the
country when it comes to defending the run and pass.

Vegas and the pundits, once again, have no clue! I said the spread for OK was 18 and it turned out to be 20. My prediction for the Orange Bowl score was 39-21.

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You said 37-26 over OU, not 39-21 in the 2 posts I saw.


Jan 6, 2016, 10:53 AM

Hope that means the Tigers are even better than your system indicates. I enjoyed reading your analysis... anymore tidbits?

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Re: My System says 32-21 Clemson


Jan 9, 2016, 12:33 AM

I said just a little while ago, we have played better against the tougher teams, and we have played soft against the weaker teams....

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Re: FB Update: Computer simulation favors Clemson over Alabama


Jan 5, 2016, 6:48 PM

Jinx of the day

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Re: FB Update: Computer simulation favors Clemson over Alabama


Jan 5, 2016, 7:23 PM

I better get my bet in, before Vegas sees this.

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Because an objective computer is doing the prediction

[1]
Jan 5, 2016, 7:28 PM

not SEC biased commentators.

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Looks realistic to me: Clemson 27, Bama 17


Jan 5, 2016, 8:04 PM

Bama pulls within 3 late, but Renfrow breaks loose for a D with 2 min. to go.

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Totally bogus...

[1]
Jan 5, 2016, 8:19 PM

It doesn't factor in "the eye test" all SEC teams rely on

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First 4: Bama won. Including a 51-17 Stomping


Jan 5, 2016, 9:50 PM

Then, Tigers won 5 of 6.

-Doc

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I've been wrong two times, but this isn't one of them.


Adjusted the Clemson line-up


Jan 6, 2016, 12:23 AM

BAMA WINS 2 OF 3.

-DNT

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I've been wrong two times, but this isn't one of them.


Re: FB Update: Computer simulation favors Clemson over Alabama


Jan 6, 2016, 8:56 AM

Hmmmmm did 10 and Bammers won 8. Some were ugly blowouts while the two Clemson won were by less than a TD. Sim SUX! Spot the ball!

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Re: FB Update: Computer simulation favors Clemson over Alabama


Jan 6, 2016, 11:02 AM

I just did the simulation 10 times. Alabama won 9 of 10, and the only Clemson win was 55-10. Not sure I'd put a lot of stock in this.

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Dang it, I just simulated it 10 times . . .

[1]
Jan 6, 2016, 11:44 AM

and Alabama went 9-1, including wins by scores of 31-6, 33-3, and 31-10.

After that the 54.5% doesn't make me feel much better.

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Re: Dang it, I just simulated it 10 times . . .


Jan 6, 2016, 3:37 PM

Don't worry, those were Lee Corso Headgear simulations

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Re: FB Update: Computer simulation favors Clemson over Alabama


Jan 9, 2016, 12:30 AM

Played twice,

Tigers 17-10

Tigers 31-28

I'll take it, and it wouldn't matter to me if it was Tigers by 1 each time. Any Tiger win = happy Tiger Nation!!!

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Replies: 28  

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