Advanced Outlook: Clemson-Wake Forest matchup breakdown and predictions

Andrew Booth and the Clemson cornerbacks look to slow down the prolific Demon Deacons passing game.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Wed Nov 17 17:28:03 GMT-04:00 2021

There’s certainly a few indicators on why Dabo Swinney’s unranked Clemson Tigers (7-3) are a slight favorite over the College Football Playoff Committee’s 10th-ranked Wake Forest Demon Deacons (9-1) Saturday (noon/ESPN).

One, Clemson enters with a 33-game home winning streak -- the nation’s longest active run -- with victories over this Wake Forest program coming by an average of 31.5 points in that span.

Overall, the Tigers have won 12 in a row over the Demon Deacons with only one of those games decided by less than two scores (31-28 Clemson in 2011; only two decided by two or fewer scores either).

Although certainly depleted this season, Clemson has -- minus transfers -- 47 more 4-star or higher prospects on the roster than Wake Forest (50 to 3), as the Deacs rank sixth-lowest among the Power 5 conferences in the 247Sports Team Talent Composite (only ahead of Syracuse in the ACC).

Judge more based on the actual action this season and that’s where you see some divergence in the analytical picks for this one.

Here’s how they shape-up by the ESPN analytics:

Efficiency ranks: Offense | Defense | Special teams

CU SP+ ranks (No. 7 overall): 57 | 3 | 16

WF SP+ ranks (No. 35 overall): 7 | 79 | 23

CU FPI ranks (No. 11 overall): 87 | 6 | 27

WF FPI ranks (No. 24 overall): 4 | 68 | 14

The only efficiency aspect these teams share is a pretty solid special teams unit to a side, while elsewhere it’s a meeting of strength on strength (Wake Forest offense v. Clemson defense) and weakness on weakness (Clemson offense v. Wake Forest defense).

The Demon Deacons rank among the top-10 nationally in plays per game, and that’s been primarily boosted by the last three outings, where they’ve run up 83 (45-7 home win over Duke), 90 (58-55 loss at UNC) and 91 plays (45-42 home win over NC State). With Clemson’s offensive struggles, it’s a situation a top-flight Tigers defense has become accustomed to -- ranking 93rd in opponent plays per game. Clemson has stepped it up at home against FBS competition on third down, however, ranking third in the nation at getting teams off the field (21%; 45.4% on the road).

Speaking of road/home splits, Wake Forest ranks second nationally in yards per play away from home (7.4) and fifth in road third-down conversion (50%). Of course, it could be argued that they haven’t faced the steepest challenges in opponents and environments in those matchups (road games at Virginia, 37-17 win; Syracuse, 37-34 win; Army, 70-56 win; UNC, 58-55 loss; average SP+ defensive rating of 65 currently).

The Deacs combine a team that's efficient in avoiding sacks (21st in sack rate; 4.1%) and not getting runs stuffed at the line (No. 24; 14.2% per Football Outsiders). Clemson has ranked among the nation's best in getting after the QB (No. 15; 9.5% sack rate), but the Tigers have been more average in containing runs at the line of scrimmage (No. 71; 17.6% stuff rate; per Football Outsiders).

The series history was referenced above, but Wake Forest’s unique version of the spread offense has particularly struggled against Clemson, averaging 228 yards and six points against the Tigers in the last three meetings -- injury at QB a factor in one of those games.

If you’re reading this, you probably have a good idea of Clemson’s offensive woes, but with the Wake Forest defense, they are 95th in yards per play surrendered to FBS competition (6.08) and that’s been worse versus conference opponents (6.28). They are 124th in plays of 10-plus yards given up and they’ve averaged seven plays of 20-plus yards surrendered per game on the road (Clemson has averaged 3.6 plays of 20 yards or more per game against FBS teams).

On to the odds and projections...

Odds (via VegasInsider as of 11/17 afternoon)

Clemson -4; 56.5 over/under.

Metrics outlook

SP+ projection: 75% Clemson (Tigers by 11.8)

ESPN FPI: 68.5% Clemson (Tigers by 3.7 points*)

FEI: 60.3% Wake Forest (Demon Deacons by 4.6)

TeamRankings: Clemson by 3.5

WAKE FOREST @ CLEMSON pic.twitter.com/xRqS9tKJlA
— parker (@statsowar) November 16, 2021

* Projected margin on a neutral field.

This week’s projections feature about as much variance as I’ve seen while doing this weekly column.

Formerly both in the Football Outsiders household, the SP+ model is picking Clemson by double-digits (33-21 projected score) and the FEI projection is taking Wake Forest by more than a field goal (30-26 projected score).

In the other picks, there are few that have Clemson winning but toeing the line of covering the spread, and CFB-Graphs.com’s model is again picking against the Tigers (was correct on Pitt; missed on calls for Boston College and Louisville).

The Demon Deacons’ offense may very well run up the numbers they have to this point on Saturday, but it’s hard not to see Brent Venables putting together a scheme that holds them a good degree under their typical 2021 performance. Will Clemson’s offense take advantage and help hold down the home field?

Prediction

Clemson 26, Wake Forest 23

(Situational stats per CFBStats.com. SP+ is a metric from ESPN's Bill Connelly, formerly of Football Outsiders and SB Nation, that combines ratings for the five factors of efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers. FPI is the Football Power Index that has a similar projection-style model from ESPN as well. FEI is a Football Outsiders projection tool that judges team efficiency for a projection. Expected Points Added (EPA) is a football statistic that seeks to measure the value of individual plays in terms of points. This is done by calculating the Expected Points of the down, distance, and field position situation at the start of a play and contrasting it with the situation at the end of the play.)