Advanced Outlook: Clemson-South Carolina projections

Clemson has won four in a row in Columbia, including by 30 points per game in the last three meetings there.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Wed Nov 22 09:21:03 GMT-04:00 2023

The good feelings of a three-win month will quickly shift after the final play of Saturday night’s action in Columbia under the lights.

Rivalry bragging rights will largely define success and failure of the 2023 season for either Clemson or South Carolina, and both sides carry confidence into the matchup.

Taking a closer look at how Clemson and South Carolina compare:

Efficiency rankings

Team overall: Offense | Defense | Special teams

CU SP+ ranks ($) (24): 43 | 15 | 76

SC SP+ ranks (57): 47 | 76 | 16

CU FEI ranks (22): 48 | 4 | 124

SC FEI ranks (46): 59 | 57 | 3

CU FPI ranks (18): 64 | 3 | 128

SC FPI ranks (38): 40 | 63 | 69

—

The Gamecocks are a moving target overall among the three metrics tracked here, varying overall from 38th (FPI) to 57th (SP+) for the ESPN-based advanced rankings. There’s no unanimity on three phases of the games, with marks as high as No. 40 offensively to 59th, 57th defensively to 76th and third on special teams to 69th.

Comparing to Clemson’s schedule to this point, South Carolina averages out a little worse than NC State and a little better than Georgia Tech across the three metrics overall, with a little worse offense than the Yellow Jackets but a better defense, and a better offense than NC State and a worse defense than the Wolfpack.

Clemson’s offensive (40s with SP+ and FEI) and defensive metrics (all Top 15) are fairly consistent with two particularly bad special teams rankings, which are dragged down by being 128th in field goal make percentage (50%) with a No. 45 ranking in field goals attempted a game (1.6).

When it comes to Clemson’s two primary deficiencies this season – red zone offense and turnovers lost, South Carolina is 65th in red zone defense (86th in red zone TD percentage allowed - 62.2) and 50th in turnovers gained (16; but 37th in fumbles recovered).

Three South Carolina players to watch

1. QB Spencer Rattler

The former 5-star QB is back for his second taste of the rivalry after snapping a whole series of streaks for the Tigers in Death Valley last year, where he didn’t grade well by PFF’s assessment (48.4) with two interceptions but 360 passing yards, two touchdowns and nine yards per pass attempt. He only attempted two runs for five yards but scored on one.

UNC’s Drake Maye had success hurting Clemson’s defense as a runner last week, but this season running, Rattler has gone multiple games without a rushing attempt. He did have three runs for 39 yards with a fumble last week against Kentucky.

At home as a passer this year, Rattler has graded in the 90s twice (91.2 versus Furman; 90.2 versus Miss. State) and no worse than 72.1 (Kentucky) with 17 touchdowns to three interceptions total.

Rattler has graded a solid 62.4 against pressure this year with a 49% completion rate and 7.5 yards per pass, with those numbers boosting to an 84.8 grade, 77.5% completion rate and 8.6 YPP with a clean pocket. The under-pressure stat is a big improvement from last year, where he graded at 28.9 with a 33.9% completion rate and 5.0 YPP, and versus Clemson, he completed only 1-of-8 passes under pressure for 34 yards with an interception.

Never forget when @SpencerRattler took a young man’s ankles pic.twitter.com/QDY5Uopyh7
— Joseph Griffin (@JosephGriffinJG) November 20, 2023

look at the footwork & arm angle. stop leaving spencer rattler out of the top tier discussion. he is what they look like. pic.twitter.com/PtemVwenrD
— Kyron Samuels (@kyronsamuels) November 19, 2023

2. WR Xavier Leggette

Leggette (6-3 227) nearly doubles up the nearest Gamecock in targets (86 to tight end Trey Knox’s 45) with five catches or more in nine of 11 games this season. After a two-game midseason swoon (four catches for 40 yards combined versus Missouri and Texas A&M in eight targets), Leggette averaged 143.7 receiving yards and totaled four touchdowns in three wins this November. His 18.3 yards per catch ranks 24th nationally.

Just so many big WR’s doing pretty things
🙏🙏🙏🙏
6’3” 227lb Xavier Leggette
pic.twitter.com/qsNjIG7Mzw
— Greg Cover 1 🏈 (@GregTompsett) November 19, 2023

3. DL Tonka Hemingway

Hemingway (6-3 285) leads the Gamecocks in QB hurries (15) and PFF grade defensively (81.8), coming off his best mark last time out versus Kentucky (86; 79.5 pass rush; 77.3 rush defense). Hemingway has seven batted passes, which leads his position nationally and ranks second only to FSU’s Patrick Payton (9) for all defensive linemen (per PFF).

Misc. Clemson stat of the week

Clemson shot up to the Top 10 nationally in turnovers gained with three last week versus UNC, and after some major struggles earlier in the season, the Tigers now rank 46th in turnover margin. Clemson lost the turnover margin in all four defeats this season, going -2 at NC State (three lost; one gained) and Miami (two lost; none gained).

Historically, turnovers have been a harbinger of defeat against South Carolina, losing three in last year’s 31-30 loss, six in the previous loss all the way back in 2013 and also being on the wrong end of the turnover margin in 2012 (-1), 2011 (-1), 2010 (-3) and 2009 (-2).

In the recent seven-game winning streak, the Tigers were plus in 2021 (+1) and 2019 (+1); even in 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2018; and lost the turnover margin in the 37-32 win in 2015 at South Carolina (-2).

Odds

Clemson -7; 52.5 over/under.

Metrics predictions

SP+ projection: Clemson 29-24 (61% Clemson win projection)

FEI: Clemson 19-13 (61.9% Clemson win projection)

ESPN FPI: 65.5% Clemson projection

CLEMSON @ SOUTH CAROLINA pic.twitter.com/WkpDJVqnTA
— parker fleming (@statsowar) November 22, 2023

Analysis: Going 1-3 on the road, Clemson has averaged 18.2 fewer points (18.8) and 50 fewer yards (380) away versus Death Valley’s friendly confines, with 2.25 turnovers a contest and a -0.75 turnover margin on the road. Going 5-1 at home, South Carolina has averaged 21.5 more points (37.5) and 152.4 more yards (450) at Williams-Brice Stadium versus road games with one turnover per game and a 1.00 average turnover margin.

There’s certainly a case for taking the home team and the points at least, which multiple analytics are doing. Clemson’s defense has traveled better than the offense on the whole, however, and been on the wrong side of those turnovers affecting field position and the scoreboard, so I’m leaning toward another year where the trends favoring the home side don’t bear out in the final scoring margin. Pick: Clemson -7 (3-8 on ATS picks, 6-5 on over/under; Game score pick in TigerNet’s weekly game prediction story).