What are Clemson's chances to make CFB Playoff with a loss to UNC?

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Media pundits across the nation are already calling for an upset watch of #10 North Carolina over #1 Clemson at the ACC Championship game on Saturday night.

So if Clemson hypothetically loses, can they still advance to the College Football Playoff?

The answer is a YES.

Four teams would be vying for the #4 seed with Alabama winning and Clemson losing to the Tarheels - Stanford, Ohio State, North Carolina and Clemson.

If Clemson loses this weekend, the Tigers still have a 42% chance to make the college football playoff according to FiveThirtyEight.com's 20,000 simulations of their playoff models.

In this above scenario, Alabama would be in with 99% odds, Oklahoma is in with 99% odds, Michigan State is in with a win over Iowa with 61% odds and Clemson with a UNC loss is next with 42% odds. Other odds are Iowa at 40%, North Carolina at 28%, Stanford at 17% and Ohio State with 14% odds to make the college football playoff.

The Clemson football team won't have to worry about sliding in as a #4 seed in the college football playoff if they handle their business this weekend.

Here are some extra odds from fivethirtyeight.com for this weekend:

Both Alabama and Clemson win (42% chance)

Alabama wins, but Clemson loses (32% chance)

Alabama loses, but Clemson wins (15% chance)

Both Alabama and Clemson lose (11% chance)

Vegas odds on hypothetical CFB Playoff games:

#1 Clemson (-8) vs #4 Iowa

#2 Alabama (-3) vs #3 Oklahoma

The question no one is asking is whether Clemson could lose & stay in the top four. Would still have better resume than Ohio St and UNC.

— Stewart Mandel (@slmandel) December 2, 2015

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