Bracket Watch: Updated Clemson ACC Tournament seed scenarios

(USA Today Sports-Joshua S. Kelly)

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Wed Feb 28 23:29:02 GMT-04:00 2018

With one game left in the ACC regular season for much of the conference, a number of seeds are up for grabs in next week’s ACC Tournament.

After downing Florida State 76-63 Wednesday night, No. 18 Clemson’s record stands at 22-7 and 11-6 in ACC play, which would project to a fourth seed in the tourney.

The Tigers close the regular season at Syracuse on Saturday (2 p.m./ACC Network), but before that, there are two games that may affect Clemson’s seeding by the weekend come Thursday night.

NC State (20-9, 10-6) is favored to win in its trip to Georgia Tech (67.8 win chance per ESPN; 4-point favorite) and Louisville (19-10, 9-7) is projected to lose hosting Virginia Thursday (21.2 win chance).

Clemson faces an NCAA Tournament bubble team on the road with the Orange - and the Tigers are slightly favored to finish 12-6 in ACC action (52.3).

Here’s what’s at stake:

ACC Tournament Scenarios

With a Clemson win Saturday* and a…

UNC loss at Duke, NC State win over Louisville: Clemson is a 4-seed with a double-bye to Thursday at the ACC Tournament. UNC falls to a 4-seed or lower depending on the results from a number of teams in the middle of the pack. NC State moves up to a 3-seed thanks to a tiebreaker versus Clemson of a better record versus a common opponent at the top of the standings (both lost to Virginia which moves the tiebreaker to NC State’s win over Duke).

Duke loss to UNC, NC State win over Louisville: Clemson is a 4-seed. In this case, Clemson, Duke, UNC and NC State would all finish 12-6, which would form a tiebreaker where their records versus each other will be slotted by winning percentage. UNC would grab the 2-seed (.667), NC State the 3-seed (.500), Clemson next (.400) and then Duke (.250).

UNC loss at Duke, NC State loss to Louisville: Clemson is a 3-seed. Both UNC and NC State fall back to the crowded middle of the pack, where the Miami/Virginia Tech winner Saturday would grab the 4-seed.

Duke loss to UNC, NC State loss to Louisville: Clemson is a 4-seed. A three-team tiebreaker with UNC, Duke and Clemson’s results versus each other has UNC move to a 2-seed and then the tiebreaker coming back to head-to-head for Duke getting a 3-seed (Clemson and Duke would have a .333 win percentage in the 3-team grouping, which sends a 2-team tie back to the head-to-head result).

* Projecting an NC State win at Georgia Tech. If they lose there, the same tiebreakers would apply as a loss Saturday to Louisville, and if they lose both games, they aren’t in the picture for a double-bye anyway.

With a Clemson loss Saturday:

Can Clemson still get a double-bye with a loss to Syracuse? There are still some strong possibilities, but the picture is murky thanks to as many as five teams that could be tied at 11-7 (In case you’re wondering, Clemson would be a four-seed in that fairly-unlikely scenario, where Louisville would need to sweep dates with Virginia at home and NC State on the road). The outlook will be a little clearer after Thursday’s action.

A 3-way tiebreaker behind NC State with UNC and Miami would give Clemson the nod for a 4-seed. A 4-way tiebreaker between UNC, NC State and Clemson, would give the Tigers the 4-seed, have Miami as the 3-seed, NC State as the 5-seed and UNC the 6-seed. A Virginia Tech win on Saturday spells doom for a double-bye in this scenario, as well as any scenario where NC State wins out and UNC or Virginia Tech wins.

ACC Standings

ACC W-L GB PCT W-L PCT STRK

#1 Virginia 15-1 -- .938 26-2 .929 W3

#5 Duke 12-5 3.5 .706 24-6 .800 L1

#9 North Carolina 11-6 4.5 .647 22-8 .733 L1

#18 Clemson 11-6 4.5 .647 22-7 .759 W2

NC State 10-6 5 .625 20-9 .690 W4

Miami 10-7 5.5 .588 21-8 .724 W3

Virginia Tech 10-7 5.5 .588 21-9 .700 W1

Louisville 9-7 6 .563 19-10 .655 W1

Florida State 8-9 7.5 .471 19-10 .655 L1

Notre Dame 8-9 7.5 .471 18-12 .600 W2