Advanced outlook: Clemson-Virginia Tech projections

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Clemson’s status as a road favorite at Virginia Tech is backed up by advanced metrics.

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Tigers a 70.6 percent chance of coming out of Blacksburg with a win, while Football Study Hall projects a 27-21 Clemson win. By ESPN’s figures, Virginia Tech is Clemson’s toughest remaining opponent in the regular season, followed by NC State (74.2 win chance) and Florida State (75.6).

The Hokies, by the numbers, remind you of the Frank Beamer era with a special teams unit ranked in the top-20 by ESPN (16), joined by a top-25 defense (23) and top-50 offense (41).

One of the more interesting matchups Saturday night is how Virginia Tech defensive coordinator Bud Foster attacks a different Clemson offense from last year’s ACC title game matchup.

The Tigers rank 12th nationally in success rate* on runs (52.8), stuffed at or behind the line only 14.9 percent of the time (26th nationally). From 2016 to 2017, Clemson is running the ball 13 percent more on standard downs** (63.8, four percent higher than the national average). Virginia Tech's defense rates a solid, yet unspectacular 43rd in success rate stopping the run (35.8).

When the Tigers go to the air, a couple of perceived weaknesses meet.

Clemson ranks 37th in overall passing success rate (46), but 111th in explosiveness, which can’t be helped by a 12.2 percent sack rate on passing downs (110th in the nation). By the metrics, Virginia Tech’s defensive stats suggest they attack on first and second down (12th in sack rate on standard downs and 104th in opposing big plays), but either back off in coverage or just aren't that effective in getting to the QB on third down (128th in passing downs sack rate, 1.7; For reference, Clemson’s is 11.4, for 27th nationally, with 7.5 percent being the national average).

Overall, the Hokies rate seventh in the nation in havoc rate (team TFL, passes defended and forced fumbles per play), presenting a challenge for a QB on his fifth start going to a tough environment. On the other side, advanced metrics back up traditional figures for Clemson defensively, ranking top-8 in not only defensive success rate (7; 29.1), but also defending passing success rate (2), standard downs explosiveness (2), overall explosiveness (2), rushing explosiveness (3), standard downs success rate (7), passing downs success rate (7) and passing explosiveness (8).

Back on offense, Clemson’s late-game surge versus Boston College moved them up 20 spots in success rate week-to-week (35th to 15th, 49.8). Facing another strong special teams unit, field position will be something to watch again, where Clemson is 105th in average starting position (27.2).

* Success rate is determined by gaining 50 percent of the necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down and 100 percent on third and fourth down.

** Passing downs are defined as second down with eight or more yards to go or third or fourth down with five or more yards to go. All other situations are “standard” downs.

Advanced metrics profile

Clemson

ESPN efficiency rank: Offense – 19. Defense – 10. Special teams – 108. Overall – 10.

Football outsiders efficiency rank (S&P+): Offense – 25. Defense – 3. Special teams – 108.

Success rate (Per Football Study Hall): Offense – 15 (49.8). Defense – 7 (29.1).

Virginia Tech

ESPN efficiency rank: Offense – 41. Defense – 23. Special teams – 16. Overall – 22.

Football outsiders efficiency rank (S&P+): Offense – 56. Defense – 11. Special teams – 58.

Success rate (Per Football Study Hall): Offense – 37 (46.2). Defense – 23 (34.6).

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