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Topic: Our path to the NCAA Tournament
Replies: 43   Last Post: Jan 25, 2020 3:05 PM by: smokepurpleliveorange69
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Our path to the NCAA Tournament

[7]
Posted: Jan 24, 2020 2:56 PM
 

I believe we need to shoot for a 12-8 ACC finish this year to put ourselves in reasonable contention for an NCAA Tournament berth. Last year, a .600 conference record would've put us at 6th in the ACC. At 12-8, we would be 18-12 overall.

To get to 12 wins, we will need to go 8-4 the rest of the way. That won't be easy, but I do think it is attainable. We currently have the following games left:

at Louisville
Syracuse
at Wake Forest
at Virginia
Notre Dame
at Pitt
Louisville
at Boston College
at Georgia Tech
Florida State
at Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech

We are currently tied for 7th in the ACC. Of the 12 games left on our schedule, 5 are against teams currently ahead of us in the standings, 5 are against teams currently below us in the standings, and 2 are against teams currently tied with us. For reference, 5 of the 8 games we've played so far are against teams ahead of us, and 3 against teams below us.

If we beat the teams we are supposed to (5), and the teams we are tied with (2), we only have to get 1 against a team ranked ahead of us. That means we would win at Wake Forest, at Virginia, at Pitt, at Boston College, at Georgia Tech, and at home against Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. However, that is a tall order, especially since 5 of those 7 games are on the road.

On the flip side, of the 5 games against teams currently ahead of us in the standings, 2 are against teams barely ahead of us (Virginia Tech and Pitt are both 5-3, versus our 4-4). The other three games against teams ahead of us are against Louisville twice (they are atop the conference at 7-1) and Florida State (in second place at 6-1).

As we know, things are rarely predictable. Chances are, we will lose a game or two against a team ranked below us, and beat a team or two ahead of us. However, we are a different team since the new year, and our 4-1 record since then should give us confidence moving forward. We have won 3 of those 4 games despite having some uncharacteristic shooting games from 3 and from the free throw line. In other words, it's not as if we have to play perfect basketball to be competitive and win conference games.

Will it happen? Who knows, but it's certainly possible. Go Tigers!

Disclaimer: We don't know what the committee will value this year. The committee seemed to prioritize quality wins over bad losses or NET ranking last year. I assume the same will be true this year, but a lot of that depends on who is on the bubble, how many strong mid-majors we have, and what happens in conference tournaments. It also goes without saying that the composition of our record matters a lot. Who we beat and who we lose to will determine how good our resume is.

2020 white level member

Brad Brownell: all-time winningest coach in Clemson men's basketball history, and only coach to beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill.


Re: Our path to the NCAA Tournament

[2]
Posted: Jan 24, 2020 3:08 PM
 

Quit reading at our path.

A path is always littered with obstacles unless it is well maintained.

Our BB path has never been well maintained

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Thanks for weighing in.***

[4]
Posted: Jan 24, 2020 3:09 PM
 



2020 white level member

Brad Brownell: all-time winningest coach in Clemson men's basketball history, and only coach to beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill.


Re: Our path to the NCAA Tournament

[3]
Posted: Jan 24, 2020 3:12 PM
 

I hope we do it. Starting with tomorrow!!

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Re: Our path to the NCAA Tournament

[1]
Posted: Jan 24, 2020 3:19 PM
 

Virginia isn't that great this year. UL is good but I believe we can atleast split with them. We have FSU at home which is good. I like our chances. I believe we can even go 11-9 and make it maybe even 10-10. Just gotta go 2-2 against UL and FSU, we are 0-1 right now ofcourse. Having beat Duke that would put us 3-2 against the best teams in the ACC and likely all quad 1 games.


Re: Our path to the NCAA Tournament

[1]
Posted: Jan 24, 2020 6:04 PM
 

Swing games are UVA, 'Cuse, WF, and VT. A win versus U of L or FSU would be huge, obviously.

2020 white level member

While I like your optimism JK...


Posted: Jan 24, 2020 3:28 PM
 

based on some of the early season struggles and "bad losses", I'm not sure an 18-12 record would get Clemson any real serious consideration by the NCAA Tournament selection committee.

At this point, looking closely at the possible bid thieves and the bubble teams, the bracketologists aren't even putting Clemson in the "wrong side of the cut line" or "also considered" categories.




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Sometimes good things fall apart so better things can fall together.


I agree that we have a lot of work to do.

[1]
Posted: Jan 24, 2020 3:42 PM
 

Our non-conference performance didn't help us much. No bad losses (no quad 4 losses), but no big wins either. Our best non-conference win is probably TCU. It would've been nice to beat Colorado.

I'm hoping that the Duke win, plus ideally at least a couple more really good quad 1 wins, while avoiding any quad 4 losses, will help us get where we need to be.

Last year, our NET was in the mid-30 range on Selection Sunday if I remember correctly. Based on that, I thought we would be in. However, the committee put some teams with lower NET rankings in over us (some way below us) because they had more "quality wins." This is despite the NCAA saying before the season that NET was a very important criteria. Go figure.

2020 white level member

Brad Brownell: all-time winningest coach in Clemson men's basketball history, and only coach to beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill.


I think they meant that wins in Tier 1 NET was important


Posted: Jan 24, 2020 3:47 PM
 

At least that is what they implied with the selections.


Perhaps I misunderstood.

[1]
Posted: Jan 24, 2020 3:49 PM
 

I thought NET was designed to replace the RPI, which had long been used to select at-large teams for the tournament.

Historically, an RPI in the top 35-40 meant you would get an at-large bid.

2020 white level member

Brad Brownell: all-time winningest coach in Clemson men's basketball history, and only coach to beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill.


No...you didn't misunderstand...

[1]
Posted: Jan 24, 2020 3:59 PM
 

That's what the NCAA said, or clarified, AFTER selection Sunday.

That's certainly not what they said beforehand.

2020 orange level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpg

Sometimes good things fall apart so better things can fall together.


Don’t we have 4 losses right now in the conference?

[2]
Posted: Jan 24, 2020 3:30 PM
 

So...why would we “shoot for” 8 losses, Brad?

This is the kind of crap that makes us so mediocre.

2020 white level member

We are currently 4-4.

[1]
Posted: Jan 24, 2020 3:43 PM
 

I believe we need to get to 12-8 to be in a good position, which means we need to go 8-4 the rest of the way.

We shouldn't "shoot for" any losses, but assuming we will win every game isn't exactly realistic, is it?

What do you think we need to do in order to make the tournament this year? Or did you just come here to be negative and critical as usual?

2020 white level member

Brad Brownell: all-time winningest coach in Clemson men's basketball history, and only coach to beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill.


Do you think it is always realistic to win the next game, Brad?

[1]
Posted: Jan 24, 2020 3:46 PM
 

You should.

2020 white level member

You didn't answer my questions.

[1]
Posted: Jan 24, 2020 3:50 PM
 

What do you think we need to do in order to make the tournament this year? Or did you just come here to be negative and critical as usual?

2020 white level member

Brad Brownell: all-time winningest coach in Clemson men's basketball history, and only coach to beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill.


You didn’t answer my question. And I believe I was being optimistic.

[1]
Posted: Jan 24, 2020 4:09 PM
 

I think we should always believe we can win the next game, instead of hoping to go 8-4.

To answer your question...when I think of “the tournament” for this team, I think of the ACC tournament.
This team has not done enough to this point to even begin getting our hopes up about the post season, and that’s a fact...that’s not being negative.

2020 white level member

Well of course the team should go into every game believing they can win.

[1]
Posted: Jan 24, 2020 9:47 PM
 

But as fans, we can afford to separate ourselves from that and look at what’s more likely. I don’t think it’s likely for us to go 12-0 the rest of the way. Going 8-4 seems more likely.

2020 white level member

Brad Brownell: all-time winningest coach in Clemson men's basketball history, and only coach to beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill.


Re: Well of course the team should go into every game believing they can win.


Posted: Jan 25, 2020 10:01 AM
 

I agree that as fans that we don't play by the same rules, and that 12-0 is not reasonable. I also thought the philosophy that you wanted for the team was to go 1-0 against your next opponent. Wouldn't a goal of 12-0 be looking ahead as well?

As for 8-4, I believe that is pretty optimistic, as well. I believe 7-5 or possibly 6-6 with a hot few days for the ACC tournament would be more likely. I just think that that the compressed timeframe of the tournament allows for a hot hand, but 8-4 would require consistently good play with much of it on the road.

Either way, the committee has shown a tendency to value games more later in the year. I'm not sure that we will be penalized as much as you think for our earlier performances if we finish strong.


Tourney committee is going to need to see good wins

[1]
Posted: Jan 24, 2020 3:46 PM
 

They've proven that they are more interested in how you do against the top tier in NET more than anything else. If we get to 12 or (I think it will need to be 13 wins) but yet we only have the 1 Tier 1 NET win (against Duke), then they will leave us out. I think our only path is to get one of the two against FSU or Louisville. And then we would likely still need to get another one in the tournament. In hindsight, the loss at NCSU is going to sting.


Miami too***


Posted: Jan 24, 2020 4:06 PM
 



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Sometimes good things fall apart so better things can fall together.


Re: Miami too***


Posted: Jan 25, 2020 9:31 AM
 

You guys are forgetting the injuries, young team, and how our schedule was set. We did not come out the gate strong but have not only shown improvement but also have some nice wins.

We will be fine if we remain consistent. Don't lay any eggs & split the 4 swing games (UVA/WF/'Cuse/VT). Winning versus U of L or FSU would be like 2 Ws, since we beat Duke.

This was not only a young team but also a "new" basketball team. Seems like that will be taken into consideration. I feel that 12 - 4 and changing our free throw perception (%) - locks us in.

2020 white level member

Re: Our path to the NCAA Tournament

[1]
Posted: Jan 24, 2020 3:49 PM
 

This is without figuring in any possible tournament wins and losses correct? If we go less than 12-8 but win a few ACC tournament games would we still be in a position to make the NCAA tournament?


I didn't figure any conference tournament wins or losses.


Posted: Jan 24, 2020 3:53 PM
 

I think a win or two in the tournament could help make up for deficiencies elsewhere, but it would depend on who we play there and who else is on the bubble.

Most people thought the winner of the Clemson vs. NC State game in last year's tournament would get into the Big Dance, and that was incorrect.

(Note: I still think we got royally screwed in that game).

2020 white level member

Brad Brownell: all-time winningest coach in Clemson men's basketball history, and only coach to beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill.


Re: I didn't figure any conference tournament wins or losses.


Posted: Jan 25, 2020 9:34 AM
 

We did and the winner would have gotten in had it been us.

2020 white level member

Posted this last week after Duke Win udated the records

[2]
Posted: Jan 24, 2020 4:08 PM
 

We need to quit looking at ACC Record/Overall record. Conf schedule varies from year to year and the NCAA does account for the unbalanced conf schedules so there is no more 20 win / 11 ACC win criteria. It matters who you beat and who you lose to.

Q1 wins mean a lot more than racking up wins vs Q3 & Q4. Losses to Q3&4 teams hurt more than losses to Q1 teams.

So where we sit right now is
Q1 1-4 (NCSU Road loss was huge, it would have been a Q1 Win)
Q2 3-2
Q3 2-2 (WF home win was a must have)
Q4 4-0
10-8

Update

What we have left per current NET rankings
Q1 (5 games)- Louisville (road), UVa (road), Louisville, FSU, VT (road)
Q2 (3 games) - WF(road), Pitt(road), GT (road)
Q3 (4 games) - Syracuse, Notre Dame, BC (road), GT

So what has to happen?
1 - Win ALL the Q3 games. That makes you 6-2 vs Q3. In reality you wouldn't want to be much worse than that vs Q3. This is where the early bad losses could hurt as you have to be perfect against the rest of these teams.
2 - Win 2 of the Q2 road games. That puts you at 5-3 vs Q2. In all reality winning all 3 are better because Q2 level competition represents the lower seeds in the tournament, but these are all road games so that would be a tall order.
3 - Win 3 or 4 of the Q1 games. Looking at the schedule I think you need NCSU (we didn't get this one), UVa for sure. Then either Louisville or FSU at home (Now we likely need L'ville AND FSU at home). I don't think VT and Louisville on the road are winnable games.

Assuming you get 3 of the 6 Q1 wins that leaves you at
Q1 4-7 - 5-6 would look a whole lot better but I just don't think its feasible
Q2 5-3 - Again 6-2 would be a lot better and going .500 vs Q1+Q2 would really help
Q3 6-2 - Makes the early bad losses sting a little less but ideally you can't take more than 2 Q3 losses.
Q4 4-0

Total 19-12. It's not crazy impossible if this team continues to improve, but you're going to have to get the 3 Q1 wins and 2 of those are road games. The other issue here is that NCSU and UVa could easily fall to Q2 wins if they continue losing games which would mean you'd really like to have both the Louisville and FSU home wins.


Win 3 or 4 of the remaining Q1 games !?!?!


Posted: Jan 24, 2020 4:37 PM
 

at Louisville -
UVa
Louisville
FSU
at Virginia Tech

As inconsistent as this team has been, especially at the FT line, I can't envision any realistic circumstance where they win three or four of those games, particularly in light of your statement that Louisville and VT on the road probably aren't winnable games.

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Sometimes good things fall apart so better things can fall together.


Not arguing that we can


Posted: Jan 24, 2020 6:34 PM
 

Just laying out what it would realistically take.


Re: Posted this last week after Duke Win udated the records


Posted: Jan 24, 2020 5:55 PM
 

19-12 finish will take a big turn around on the FT line, and somebody extra to get hot shooting. Is Hemmenway healthy to play yet?


NCSU is playing pretty well now and look to be one that

[1]
Posted: Jan 24, 2020 6:46 PM
 

may separate into that 4 spot in the ACC. Our home win against them may end up Q1 when it's all said and done. I think we have a good chance at VT- we had them for half or more at home and we were clearly not the same team we are now with the players we have back and the chemistry we've built.


Great post!

[1]
Posted: Jan 24, 2020 9:45 PM
 

Thank you.

I agree that it’s less accurate these days to think in terms of ACC or overall wins. Too many other factors are at play.

My post was intended to break things down in simple terms, and quantify the ACC into tiers in order to visualize a clear path forward. I wasn’t trying to minimize the factors you brought up; sorry if that wasn’t clear.

We don’t really have any bad losses, and hopefully it stays that way. Here’s to at least a few really good wins to boost our resume.

2020 white level member

Brad Brownell: all-time winningest coach in Clemson men's basketball history, and only coach to beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill.


Re: Posted this last week after Duke Win udated the records


Posted: Jan 25, 2020 10:21 AM
 

Pitt and 'Cuse quads are deceptive. 'Cuse is taking off, has a history of doing what they are on the way to doing and baby B is on the court this time. Then Pitt played a bunch of freshmanlast year. Year 2 and turning around.

2020 white level member

Would love to see it


Posted: Jan 24, 2020 4:09 PM
 

But you're dreaming


We also thought/hoped we could hang with LSU.


Posted: Jan 24, 2020 5:20 PM
 

We were very wrong, but wasn’t the optimism a lot more fun than being doubtful and negative?

2020 white level member

Brad Brownell: all-time winningest coach in Clemson men's basketball history, and only coach to beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill.


I prefer reality. You're analogy is poor

[1]
Posted: Jan 24, 2020 6:30 PM
 

We had every reason to believe we could hang with LSU in football, as we are an elite program. In hoops as you've pointed out countless times, we are not.

I hope they prove me wrong


And we have every reason to believe we can go 8-4 the rest of the way.


Posted: Jan 24, 2020 9:50 PM
 

We are 4-4 now, and have more games left against teams below or equal to us in the standings than we do ahead of us. Plus, the team we have now (Trapp back from injury, etc.) is 4-1 over its last 5 games. I see no reason why we can’t strive to make the tournament. It won’t be easy, and it might not happen, but I don’t believe it should be viewed as unlikely either.

2020 white level member

Brad Brownell: all-time winningest coach in Clemson men's basketball history, and only coach to beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill.


It is unlikely

[1]
Posted: Jan 25, 2020 6:59 AM
 

because realistically, it is unlikely


So, your “fun optimism” is hoping we lose 4 more games in the regular season?


Posted: Jan 24, 2020 6:43 PM
 

No thanks

2020 white level member

It would take a major miracle to beat FSU or Louisville,,,so


Posted: Jan 24, 2020 7:33 PM
 

thats three highly probably losses right there! Then, I doubt we go 8-1 against the rest of the schedule. I would love to see it, but have to start making some free throws to even have a chance to finish 8-4.

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Re: It would take a major miracle to beat FSU or Louisville,,,so


Posted: Jan 25, 2020 10:38 AM
 

If we chalk up both our home games versus U of L and FSU we need to beat 'Cuse, ND, and GT just to get 3 of those "needed" (8) wins. Then we would have to get 5 more wins from the away game pool of WF, UVA, Pitt, BC, GT, BC, and VT. Got to hit free throws to win those.

2020 white level member

20 wins is usually the magic number.

[1]
Posted: Jan 24, 2020 10:24 PM
 

9 more to go.


Except we won 20 games last year and didn’t get in.


Posted: Jan 24, 2020 10:46 PM
 

That was also with a .500 ACC record and a NET ranking in the 30s. I thought we should’ve been in.

2020 white level member

Brad Brownell: all-time winningest coach in Clemson men's basketball history, and only coach to beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill.


Wish you were on the selection committee! But you at least get a vote in the coaches’ poll, right?***


Posted: Jan 25, 2020 7:10 AM
 



2020 white level member

Re: Our path to the NCAA Tournament


Posted: Jan 25, 2020 7:08 AM
 

Judge, I like your enthusiasm, but I think it is slightly dreaming. What I do like is what we are building. We go next season.

2020 white level member

Re: Our path to the NCAA Tournament

[1]
Posted: Jan 25, 2020 3:05 PM
 

LOL. Brownell supporters are truly delusional


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