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Topic: Here is the biggest problem with Herbie's logic....
Replies: 21   Last Post: Dec 2, 2018 10:06 AM by: big monk
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Here is the biggest problem with Herbie's logic....

[15]
Posted: Dec 2, 2018 12:59 AM
 

Herbie says "it should be the best 4 teams... period." How can we disagree with that?

Here's the problem. We don't know who those are... which is why we play the games. That's why we have this thing called RESUME. It's our best chance to try and figure that out.

Herbie acts like that Bama currently being RANKED #1 means that they are in fact the best team. We don't know yet. That means, UGA losing to Bama is not necessarily UGA losing to the NATIONAL CHAMPION. They are losing to a team that people (using limited data) believe AT THIS POINT, are probably the best team. The truth is, Herbie DOES NOT KNOW who the best 4 teams are. And an eye test is fundamentally inferior way of trying to figure that out than resume. Once resume is ignored simply due to an eye test, then we have lost perspective. Herbie needs to pump the breaks on how sure he is that UGA is better than Oklahoma or Ohio State. He absolutely does not know. When there are comparable teams, we have established metrics to compare them.

The minute that "eye test" matters more than resume, then we are no longer talking about "best teams" and we are instead talking about emotional, gut reactions that intentionally discount the full range of data. If we think that we can somehow declare who the better team is simply by watching them play 12 of the 130 FBS teams, we are being overconfident at best.

UGA and Oklahoma are comparable teams. And Oklahoma's resume is obviously better, despite it not being obvious who is really the better team. Resume must trump "eye test" as the former is much more thorough.

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so how do you define resume?


Posted: Dec 2, 2018 1:01 AM
 

OU gave up 40+ points SIX times this year, including 4 of the last 5 games. According to metrics, UGA is ahead of them in everything.

Is there resume better b/c of the record? UGA has better wins, and that's not close.

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Re: so how do you define resume?


Posted: Dec 2, 2018 1:07 AM
 

UGA did not play the same opponents. That is how. We do not know how our D would fair in the Big12 this year. We did not play in the conference.

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Easy

[3]
Posted: Dec 2, 2018 1:07 AM
 

1. Most important is record. (Oklahoma wins)
2. Then comes SOS Oklahoma beat 3 currently ranked teams, UGA beat 3 too. An edge that UGA may have is not obvious and most certainly not severe.
3. Then everything else Oklahoma is conference champs, UGA not.

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What ?? Georgia MOST DEFINITELY DOES NOT

[4]
Posted: Dec 2, 2018 1:17 AM
 

have any wins that top Oklahoma. Kentucky ? Florida ? Those are 2 best wins LOL. Oklahoma beat West Virginia and Texas, both as good or better than Georgia, and not to mention Georgia lost 2 games and one was a curb stomp to LSU. Oklahoma lost 1 game, by FG, and avenged that loss today against Texas.

Oklahoma gets the nod, not argument otherwise holds any merit.


Re: so how do you define resume?

[2]
Posted: Dec 2, 2018 7:01 AM
 

Georgia's OOC schedule was pathetic.
- They were upset by LSU
- They lost respectfully to Bama.
- Their best win is a natural site Florida game

I don't care about the eye test. At some point WINNING matters. They have lost 2 games. I don't care if OU's D sucks. They are still 12-1 and a conference champion. If that doesn't matter, why do we have conferences at all?


giving up 40 is no big deal when you can put up 50***

[2]
Posted: Dec 2, 2018 9:38 AM
 



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Re: Here is the biggest problem with Herbie's logic....

[3]
Posted: Dec 2, 2018 1:03 AM
 

I just think it's as simple as UGA has two losses, no championship. That proves to me they are not one of the top 4 best teams in CFP. Ok and O310st both won championships in the P5 with only one loss each. Those are the two that should be giving the committee headaches on which to include.


I get what you're saying but it isn't eye test though


Posted: Dec 2, 2018 1:03 AM
 

It is an entire season of rankings and stats and SOR. Oklahoma doesn't compare as favorably when you look at that. If you want to just see if a team can knock Bama off from another conference, then your argument is valid.


Re: I get what you're saying but it isn't eye test though


Posted: Dec 2, 2018 9:54 AM
 

Entire season of rankings? Only rankings that matter are CFBPC Rankings

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The biggest problem with Herbie's logic.... L$U


Posted: Dec 2, 2018 1:04 AM
 

No way UGA deserves to be in with that loss and no championship


Re: Here is the biggest problem with Herbie's logic....


Posted: Dec 2, 2018 1:20 AM
 

Great points.
Georgia also played a virtual home game in Atlanta. Would the result have been the same if the SEC championship were held in Birmingham, AL? Doubt it.
If Georgia was truly as good as Alabama, they wouldn't have lost by 20 to LSU.
By Herbie's reasoning, maybe the Citidel should be in the rankings too?

ClemsonCarl


Think UGA would beat OK again, but can’t get past


Posted: Dec 2, 2018 1:20 AM
 

their beat down by a pretty good only LSU team.

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I think UGA would beat Oklahoma too, but that's not how we

[1]
Posted: Dec 2, 2018 1:22 AM
 

should pick the playoffs. It absolutely has to be resume.

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Re: Here is the biggest problem with Herbie's logic....

[4]
Posted: Dec 2, 2018 2:14 AM
 


Herbie says "it should be the best 4 teams... period." How can we disagree with that?

Here's the problem. We don't know who those are... which is why we play the games. That's why we have this thing called RESUME. It's our best chance to try and figure that out.

Herbie acts like that Bama currently being RANKED #1 means that they are in fact the best team. We don't know yet. That means, UGA losing to Bama is not necessarily UGA losing to the NATIONAL CHAMPION. They are losing to a team that people (using limited data) believe AT THIS POINT, are probably the best team. The truth is, Herbie DOES NOT KNOW who the best 4 teams are. And an eye test is fundamentally inferior way of trying to figure that out than resume. Once resume is ignored simply due to an eye test, then we have lost perspective. Herbie needs to pump the breaks on how sure he is that UGA is better than Oklahoma or Ohio State. He absolutely does not know. When there are comparable teams, we have established metrics to compare them.

The minute that "eye test" matters more than resume, then we are no longer talking about "best teams" and we are instead talking about emotional, gut reactions that intentionally discount the full range of data. If we think that we can somehow declare who the better team is simply by watching them play 12 of the 130 FBS teams, we are being overconfident at best.

UGA and Oklahoma are comparable teams. And Oklahoma's resume is obviously better, despite it not being obvious who is really the better team. Resume must trump "eye test" as the former is much more thorough.


Has ever been invited into the CFP with a loss in December. CCGs are elimination games. Period. Not play-ins, because the winner doesn't automatically get in; but elims, because the loser is automatically out.

It would also have applied to Bama and Clemson, had they lost, but we didn't. Wins matter.

If we open the door for 2-loss non-champions who lose their CCGs, why not re-seed the playoffs after the first game? Oh, Bama gets upset by #4 in the Cotton Bowl? "No problem, that's only their first loss, we'll give them a pass into the championship anyway." You say that can't happen under the current format; i say give it two years and it will. Somebody will want to give Bama a bye.

Every year we come up with new exceptions to include one of the blue bloods. Last year was understandable--though regrettable--because no other CC had fewer than 2 losses. After 2nd and 26, Bama became the undeserving, deserving, division and conference non-champ national champion. This year we have 6 qualifiers (counting ND).

NO NEED FOR NEW EXCEPTIONS THIS YEAR

I like Herbie, but he is a perfect example of why a committee should use guidelines. SEC circular reasoning would put multiple SEC teams in every year.

And expanding the field to 8 without guidelines won't help, because the d**n talking heads will try to squeeze 4 SEC teams into an 8-team field.


Re: Here is the biggest problem with Herbie's logic....


Posted: Dec 2, 2018 6:57 AM
 

Rw43 said:


Herbie says "it should be the best 4 teams... period." How can we disagree with that?

Here's the problem. We don't know who those are... which is why we play the games. That's why we have this thing called RESUME. It's our best chance to try and figure that out.

Herbie acts like that Bama currently being RANKED #1 means that they are in fact the best team. We don't know yet. That means, UGA losing to Bama is not necessarily UGA losing to the NATIONAL CHAMPION. They are losing to a team that people (using limited data) believe AT THIS POINT, are probably the best team. The truth is, Herbie DOES NOT KNOW who the best 4 teams are. And an eye test is fundamentally inferior way of trying to figure that out than resume. Once resume is ignored simply due to an eye test, then we have lost perspective. Herbie needs to pump the breaks on how sure he is that UGA is better than Oklahoma or Ohio State. He absolutely does not know. When there are comparable teams, we have established metrics to compare them.

The minute that "eye test" matters more than resume, then we are no longer talking about "best teams" and we are instead talking about emotional, gut reactions that intentionally discount the full range of data. If we think that we can somehow declare who the better team is simply by watching them play 12 of the 130 FBS teams, we are being overconfident at best.

UGA and Oklahoma are comparable teams. And Oklahoma's resume is obviously better, despite it not being obvious who is really the better team. Resume must trump "eye test" as the former is much more thorough.


Has ever been invited into the CFP with a loss in December. CCGs are elimination games. Period. Not play-ins, because the winner doesn't automatically get in; but elims, because the loser is automatically out.

It would also have applied to Bama and Clemson, had they lost, but we didn't. Wins matter.

If we open the door for 2-loss non-champions who lose their CCGs, why not re-seed the playoffs after the first game? Oh, Bama gets upset by #4 in the Cotton Bowl? "No problem, that's only their first loss, we'll give them a pass into the championship anyway." You say that can't happen under the current format; i say give it two years and it will. Somebody will want to give Bama a bye.

Every year we come up with new exceptions to include one of the blue bloods. Last year was understandable--though regrettable--because no other CC had fewer than 2 losses. After 2nd and 26, Bama became the undeserving, deserving, division and conference non-champ national champion. This year we have 6 qualifiers (counting ND).

NO NEED FOR NEW EXCEPTIONS THIS YEAR

I like Herbie, but he is a perfect example of why a committee should use guidelines. SEC circular reasoning would put multiple SEC teams in every year.

And expanding the field to 8 without guidelines won't help, because the d**n talking heads will try to squeeze 4 SEC teams into an 8-team field.


This ^^^ all day. Most logical thinking I’ve seen. Every year the sec is going to want to change the rules midstream to benefit themselves. It just means more. While every other conference just gets down to business, and let’s the chips fall where they may. Kirby and nick are actively lobbying for the committee to take a conference championship loser, over other 1 loss champions.

The committee has sort of decided since the CFP inception that conference championship would be used in cases where there was little difference between 2 or 3 teams staking their claim to the playoff.

It sets a terrible precedent to take a conference championship loser (with more losses than other teams who won their conference). LSU lost to Texas AtM in addition to Florida, and Bama. Georgia played the first round of the playoffs tonight and lost.

If you want to try reseeding so that the top 8 divisions play this week (so that clemson doesn’t have to play pitt or Ohio state northwestern have at it.) That would be pretty cool. Sec would be arguing to get 3 teams in if we tried that though. It’s just what they do.


Not just guideline, but a hard fast rule: A non CCG winner


Posted: Dec 2, 2018 8:29 AM
 

cannot get in over a conference champ, unless they have fewer losses than the conference champ!

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Re: Here is the biggest problem with Herbie's logic....

[2]
Posted: Dec 2, 2018 2:47 AM
 

Well said. The idea of picking the 4 best teams is dumb and impossible. The best job they can do is pick the 4 most deserving.


Re: Here is the biggest problem with Herbie's logic....


Posted: Dec 2, 2018 5:49 AM
 

Here is the biggest problem with Herbie's logic, and it's the same as anybody's logic.
The Committee is going to put in the four teams they want in.
Granted any undefeated regular season, and undefeated conference championship is going to get in. That's why you have undefeated Bama and Clemson, and Notre Dame.
But here is where the Committee, IMO lack balls.No two-loss team that didn't win their conference championship game should not get in over a one-loss team that did.
Conference Championship games should matter, or Conference Championship games should be eliminated.
Period.
In fact, by eliminating that game, you could then make the argument of adding 4 more teams and making it a real 8 team playoff.
But' that is a different subject matter.


Re: Here is the biggest problem with Herbie's logic....


Posted: Dec 2, 2018 6:40 AM
 

Hey, think outside the box and put in actual conference champs. You have four and they are pretty good teams. They are champions! ND didn’t win a conference championship, so this year, they are out. Make it worth something to play for a championship.

Anytime you lose late in the year, you are out. Last year, Bama was the best, but every year is different. A loss in a championship game should matter and you don’t advance.

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Re: Here is the biggest problem with Herbie's logic....

[1]
Posted: Dec 2, 2018 8:19 AM
 

CFP Rankings going into Championship Week:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Georgia

Herbie's Updated Rankings:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Georgia
4. Notre Dame

Agree with a lot that has already been written but I think the fault in Herbie's logic is very simple...None of the CFP top 3 teams lost therefore Georgia can't lose and move ahead of any of the top 3 teams in the rankings. To do so invalidates the games being played and sends the message that winning and losing doesn't matter and that the CFP selection has become nothing but an SEC beauty contest.

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Re: Here is the biggest problem with Herbie's logic....


Posted: Dec 2, 2018 10:06 AM
 

What he said 100%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%


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