Topic: Earlier someone asked about Etienne and "Successful" Runs
Replies: 2   Last Post: Oct 17, 2018 2:30 PM by: ksolomo
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Earlier someone asked about Etienne and "Successful" Runs

Posted: Oct 17, 2018 12:48 AM

I remember hearing this metric before, so looked it up and found this link: http://www.footballperspective.com/running-back-success-rate/

In short his definition of a successful run is one that does one of the following:
1) on First Down achieves 40% of needed yardage.
2) on Second Down achieves 50% of needed yardage.
3) on ANY down results in a First Down or Touchdown.

Note: He (and I) throws out 3rd/4th down rushes when the needed yardage is greater than 5 yards as typically these are draws/rushes that are called simply to gain yards in preparation for a punt.

Here are the calculations for Etienne in case anyone is interested in playing around with them.

NOTE: My numbers are derived from the NCAA.COM play by play, which vary a bit in totals with his official stats, (ie number of rushes is the same, but his play by play total has him with about 20 more yards than his official stats). I'm unsure of why that discrepancy exists.

Here's the summary


Total Number of Rushes: 83
Total Number Of Yards: 789
Yards/Rush: 9.506

Number of Rushes Eligible For Success: 82
Number of Successful Rushes 61
Percentage Successful 74.390%
Number of Non Successful Rushes: 21
Percentage Non Successful: 25.610%

So it seems like, if my calculations are correct, he has successful runs almost 75% of the time, which is well above the link's suggestion of around 50% being average.

Etienne is very very good

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Wow, that's awesome. Thanks!***

Posted: Oct 17, 2018 8:17 AM

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Re: Earlier someone asked about Etienne and "Successful" Runs

Posted: Oct 17, 2018 2:30 PM

I was the guy who asked earlier. Neat analysis, thanks for taking the time. That feels about right, 75% of the time you hand the ball to Travis, you have a successful play. Are you listening ScELLIOT?

I'm playing with your dataset a little bit more and I found a couple other nuggets:
Travis is averaging 9.5 YPC.
He had 7 touchdown runs that were under his current average of 9.5 YPC
If I just completely factor those out of his average, because clearly he couldn't have run for any more yards on these, and clearly it was a successful play, he's actually averaging 10.1 YPC, or a first down per carry.


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