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Topic: ...and just like that, there are basically just 3 left
Replies: 24   Last Post: Nov 11, 2019 4:38 PM by: allorangeallthetime52®
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...and just like that, there are basically just 3 left

[48]
Posted: Nov 10, 2019 10:46 AM
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...and lookee there, one week later, the college football world's Field of Contenders has basically narrowed to three teams again: LSU, Ohio State...and of course, Clemson.

After that you've got the Big Underdogs: Georgia, Minnesota, and Baylor...who will have to work their way in by beating teams that will be favored against them by 2+ TD's, minimum. Baylor would have to beat Oklahoma twice because of the way the round-robin championship game works in the Big 12.

Alabama, as Heather Dinich and others have noted, is most likely out. Even at 11-1 they will have no real signature wins, no conference championship, and are unlikely to be unequivocally one of the four best teams, as they were in 2017 when nobody in the Big 12, B1G, or Pac 12 seemed to want that #4 spot. The Tide D has been shaky all year (and it finally bit them), and their resume has no notable heads on its mantle. Saban's gang could work their way back in but they need help. A lot of help.

Georgia's one chance is to beat LSU in the SEC Championship Game. That's it. At 11-2, with a second loss to LSU in the SEC Championship Game, they're out, and there is zero chance they back in.

Minnesota will have to beat Ohio State in the B1G Championship Game...well, assuming they even make it. They still have games against Iowa and Wisconsin...and even if they win those, they then get to try to stop an OSU team that is mangling everybody right now. Good luck, Golden Gophers. You're gonna need it.

After that you've got three teams going for that #4 spot - Oregon, Utah, or Oklahoma. If one of them finishes with just 1 loss that spot is likely theirs because they will have a 12-1 record, a conference title, and enough on the resume they will bump Alabama. All three would have to lose again to surrender their playoff spot.

As for Clemson? We just have to not stumble against teams we will be favored by 20+ (probably more like 28) points over: Wake, South Carolina, and whatever sacrificial victim gets offered up by the Coastal in the ACC Championship Game - VT, UVA, or Pitt.

I will concede there is probably a reason people hate us. I'd hate us if I wasn't us. Because it is very sweet to be us. You know how this goes: Clemson will continue playing 85 guys a game the next three weeks and will arrive in the playoffs with basically a 3-deep of guys with 150+ snaps each and a group of starters without a ton of miles on their tires. LSU or OSU will undoubtedly claim that #1 seeding but they're welcome to it; that #1 seeding has been the Kiss of Death for whoever receives it, because for whatever reason the Football Gods have seen to it that not one #1 playoff seed has ever won a national title...so have at it, LSU and OSU. We'll take our #3 seeding and seat on the ROY Bus, it's been working for us for years.

And here we go. Fun Season.


Re: ...and just like that, there are basically just 3 left

[4]
Posted: Nov 10, 2019 11:01 AM
    Reply

The narrative this morning has changed. Alabama is not 100% out at this point. Alabama has no SOS but a quality loss whereas Georgia has a decent resume (over Florida and ND) but an ugly loss. As we know the committee is never consistent with their criteria, you never know who gets in and who gets out.

One thing for sure, the SEC will push hard to send two teams to CFB. Money talks, sigh.


Re: ...and just like that, there are basically just 3 left

[5]
Posted: Nov 10, 2019 11:19 AM
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cbrimbor said:

The narrative this morning has changed. Alabama is not 100% out at this point. Alabama has no SOS but a quality loss whereas Georgia has a decent resume (over Florida and ND) but an ugly loss. As we know the committee is never consistent with their criteria, you never know who gets in and who gets out.

One thing for sure, the SEC will push hard to send two teams to CFB. Money talks, sigh.




The problem there is "regional appeal". The Southeast has been over-represented the last bunch of years, usually getting 2-3 teams in (involving at least two of Alabama, Clemson, UGA, or FSU), leaving just two (or one!) spot for the entire rest of the country.

You do that often enough, people vote with their remotes and go click. Especially people in New York, Chicago, LA, Kansas City, or Dallas.

The Committee has actually done a fairly good job the last few years, but it's also human. They're going to desperately want to get a team from the Pac 12 or Big-12 in and that's why they established "conference championships" as one of the primary criteria for passing judgment upon a playoff aspirant.

If Oregon, Utah, or Oklahoma win out, they're in. Of course, getting three consecutive wins in November with the heat on and end-of-season-fatigue settling in is never easy, as we've seen year after year after year...heck, the first week in November took down both Penn State and Alabama this year. So yeah, it's definitely not 100% that Bama is out but they will need help, probably from Oregon or Utah.

Oregon has to beat the two Arizonas...Arizona and Arizona State. Arizona is at home and ASU is away. Arizona is 4-5 and has lost their last four games, and has no defense. Arizona State is 5-4 and has lost their last three...and they have no offense.

Utah has a lot of junk in their way as well: UCLA (4-5), that Arizona team again (4-5), and Colorado (4-6).

Both squads are going to be heavily favored all their remaining games until they (likely) play one another in the Pac 12 Championship Game. I'd personally love to see Utah make it in. Kyle Wittingham is a class act and he's always done a lot with not a lot: 2-and-3-star leftovers from California and a bunch of very large Somoan guys from the South Pacific; they'd make an interesting Cinderella.


Bama has 46 points laid on them and that’s a quality loss?

[2]
Posted: Nov 10, 2019 11:29 AM
    Reply

Not in my feeble mind.

2019 white level member

Re: Not so fast my friend...

[2]
Posted: Nov 10, 2019 11:31 AM
    Reply

Some ESPN pundit, the name escapes me, at 4 AM on 105.5 was lauding Bama as still one of the 4 best teams. He pointed to an injured TUA as an excuse, as we all knew would be the case.
He said Clemson is stomping every high school team that they play so you can't really tell how good they are. They will be pushing Bama as one of the top 4 and from how the committee appears to vote, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if they make it in.

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Re: ...and just like that, there are basically just 3 left


Posted: Nov 11, 2019 3:32 PM
    Reply

They will again give Bama a pass bc of the eye test, lets not forget the eye test!!!

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Always enjoy your posts, Q, couple questions for you..

[5]
Posted: Nov 10, 2019 11:08 AM
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What do you see if Georgia loses to Auburn but beats LSU? I think this is a reasonably likely scenario with Auburn being on the Plains and SECCG being basically a home game. (I don't think Georgia will be a two TD dog to LSU in the new Georgia Dome, btw.)


What do you see if everything goes chalk and Oklahoma and one of Utah/Oregon win out. Now you have the three that are in plus 12-1 OU conference champ, 12-1 Oregon/Utah conference champ, and 11-1 Bama.

And one less likely one: By some miracle Minnesota wins out. Now they should be in with LSU and Clemson...how do you rank an Ohio State (let's assume they lost by 3 to Minnesota) against those Oregon/Oklahoma/Alabama squads.

I'll hang up and listen. :D

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Re: Always enjoy your posts, Q, couple questions for you..

[7]
Posted: Nov 10, 2019 11:30 AM
    Reply


What do you see if Georgia loses to Auburn but beats LSU? I think this is a reasonably likely scenario with Auburn being on the Plains and SECCG being basically a home game. (I don't think Georgia will be a two TD dog to LSU in the new Georgia Dome, btw.)


What do you see if everything goes chalk and Oklahoma and one of Utah/Oregon win out. Now you have the three that are in plus 12-1 OU conference champ, 12-1 Oregon/Utah conference champ, and 11-1 Bama.

And one less likely one: By some miracle Minnesota wins out. Now they should be in with LSU and Clemson...how do you rank an Ohio State (let's assume they lost by 3 to Minnesota) against those Oregon/Oklahoma/Alabama squads.

I'll hang up and listen. <img border=">">">




That'd be fascinating for sure. And a righteous mess and probably the first real crisis the Committee has had to face.

I have no idea what they'd do.

I think they'd start with the obvious: Clemson in. Oregon/Utah in. Assuming OSU has won out, you'd have to put them in as well.

I think what would get hurt is that SEC-Is-Awesome narrative, actually. Because if you look close the SEC actually isn't that awesome this year - LSU and Alabama have basically turned into Big 12 squads with tons of offense and no D - they just played a 46-41 game in Tuscaloosa, for cryin' out loud! - and Georgia doesn't have much O.

I think in that case is what would happen is UGA would get that #4 spot and LSU would be on the outside looking in. They could scream and yell but hey: where's the conference title?

If Oklahoma or Baylor were to also win out, that would simplify everything. The SEC could get left out entirely. Now there's a Doomsday Scenario I could truly get behind. <img border=">

As for the Minnesota scenario you described, I think that helps OSU only as long as the Committee doesn't have four 1-loss-or-fewer conference champs to choose from. History and precedent tells us the Committee will forgive one loss but not two...Alabama got in at 11-1 and no conference championship over a 10-2 Ohio State squad with a conference title in 2017, for instance, but those two ugly losses OSU suffered that year were just too much to overlook.


Call me jaded but I think there's zero chance the SEC

[2]
Posted: Nov 10, 2019 11:34 AM
    Reply

gets left out entirely no matter what happens. They might have to justify putting 12-1 SECCG loser LSU in, but they have enough hyped up wins over "top ten" (love how they use the 'time of game' rankings to give LSU a top ten win over Texas...lol) teams to justify it, I think.

Although if their ultimate goal is to get to eight teams, leaving the SEC out is one way to ensure enough fan support to do it. Everyone is indoctrinated with the narrative at this point and a lot of people would look at the ultimate national champion as illegitimate if they didn't have to go through an SEC team.

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I have not believed the SEC was as good as ESPiN says in...

[2]
Posted: Nov 10, 2019 11:43 AM
    Reply

nearly two decades. However, the SEC is as good as any other conference and over all probably better than the Big 12, ACC and PAC.

That being said, everyone gets their sports news from ESPiN. If ESPiN says it often enough the committee will buy into it.

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Re: Call me jaded but I think there's zero chance the SEC


Posted: Nov 11, 2019 4:07 PM
    Reply

We all know that, but we can hope they would be left on the outside looking in, and maybe not deservingly so this year, but they should have been in the past, and if they were this year, it would be deserving pay back IMO!!!

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I certainly haven't watched as many games this season as...

[1]
Posted: Nov 10, 2019 11:40 AM
    Reply

one who considers himself a College Football fan. However, I watched Bama/LSU and Joe Burrow is the real deal. He's what Fromm wanted to be. The kid has all the tools. He will destroy UGA and AU.

Yes, I know, Bama's secondary is microwaved mulch.

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Re: Always enjoy your posts, Q, couple questions for you..

[1]
Posted: Nov 10, 2019 11:54 AM
    Reply

Georgia has a legit shot at LSU when they meet at the SECCG. LSU is a top-notch team but their brutal season is slowly wearing down the team, as we saw yesterday in the second half more LSU players got injured and Bama had a lot success running the ball.

If Georgia can hang with LSU in the 1st half and run the ball well, like Texans ran the ball on the Chiefs or the Ravens ran the ball on the Patriots, a high-power offense can quickly become a no factor.


I want alabama to make the cut.


Posted: Nov 10, 2019 11:34 AM
    Reply

I want to beat LSU in the first round as a 4th seeded team then play the music to Saban's Swansong. That's not going to happen now.

Imo, it won't take something extraordinary for the committee to include Bama. Sure, ESPiN is talking about the end of Alabama right now but when they get the memo from the Mouse on Wed they will remember which side of the bread has the jelly.

'Come next weekend Tua's ankle will be 100% and Bama is back. - ESPiN

ESPiN wants two SEC teams in every playoff and the only other hope is UGA who will furnish rump to LSU in the SECCCG which will convince the committee that UGA isn't one of the four best. LSU, OSU, Clemson then Bama.

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I would never count Bama out.

[1]
Posted: Nov 10, 2019 11:35 AM
    Reply

OSU could lay a turd and lose. Most people realize they have athletes on offense that are truly gifted. Eye test tells me they are top 4 ... lot of others will think that as well

Message was edited by: tigertrain®


2019 white level member

Re: ...and just like that, there are basically just 3 left

[3]
Posted: Nov 10, 2019 11:43 AM
    Reply

As always, excellent post, Q. When it comes to your writing, best is the standard...haha. Our views diverge slightly, as my view appears to be a vast minority opinion today. However, I think Alabama will be a playoff team. They will luck out and receive some love from the love-struck committee.

Comparing Alabama and Georgia, I don’t see how the committee could put UGa ahead of Bama. Perhaps, Oregon and Oklahoma leapfrog both Alabama and UGa, but I’m not convinced. I’m not even convinced Alabama drops out of the top four today. They should, but I’m unconvinced they will.

Nonetheless, it’s a great time to be a Tiger. These Tigers are hungry and ready to feast.


Re: ...and just like that, there are basically just 3 left


Posted: Nov 11, 2019 4:26 PM
    Reply

Bama may not have played against the best teams as we haven't either, but Bama like us have destroyed who they have played as we have with the exception of UNC, but a ton mistakes really kept UNC from getting destroyed. And the 1 loss that Bama has was against a very decent LSU team that they went tic for tat with to the end of the game, and for those reasons only I wouldn't be to mad if Bama got in, but in noway do I think they should go in ahead of an undefeated power 5 conference team. And if LSU and OSU lose a game, Bama is deserving of a playoff spot as much as any 1 loss team bc Bama did play LSU tough, loss by 5 points with Tua playing on a bad wheel. And if Jalen hadn't transferred, I think that Bama wins. I know that is just my opinion, but it is my honest opinion!!!

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Re: ...and just like that, there are basically just 3 left

[2]
Posted: Nov 10, 2019 12:00 PM
    Reply

good post and thread.

I agree with TTD, I don't see the bullpups higher than 'bamer. A loss at home vs lsu or a home loss to uscjr, which looks worse. Plus, it's 'bamer.

The CFP gets great ratings even without regional representation. I don't think it's a ratings issue to have 2 sec teams in. I can see the left out conferences having a big issue, especially when it comes time to renew the CFP agreement.

I think it's wrong, but for some reason the CFP committee doesn't care about me.


Bama wins out = Bama is in

[1]
Posted: Nov 10, 2019 3:12 PM
    Reply

The committee will look at it like this - of all the one loss teams, only Bama can claim that loss went to the #1 team in the country, where they outgained said team in yardage and first downs.

Bama wins, Bama is in (fair or not)


Not if those other 1 loss teams are

[1]
Posted: Nov 11, 2019 4:30 PM
    Reply

PAC12 & BIG12 Champs.


Well said sir!!!

[2]
Posted: Nov 10, 2019 12:00 PM
    Reply



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I agree completely with Quozzel.

[2]
Posted: Nov 11, 2019 12:37 PM
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I think his logic is sound and his ifs, ands and buts cover all the reasonable possibilities. For Clemson, the key thing is to win the next 3 games.

The football is a funny shape and it bounces oddly. The human element is sports often favors the underdog since it's hard to get a peak performance out of a prohibitive favorite. We're asking a lot, a whole lot, of the men who play and coach Clemson football. All of us counting on reaching at least 28 wins in a row when we mentally move WF, South Carolina and the Coastal Champion into our win column. Like everyone I hope that happens. If it doesn't, after a long hard period of mourning, I'll be there cheering the incredible run of great play that has carried us this far. Clemson Football has been great and those of us watch have been lucky.

For me, Quozzel's post is a strong and reasonable argument for not expanding the playoff. No one really thinks the teams who do not make the final four are likely to be the best team this year or one deserving the Natty. But the ball bounces funny. I'd like to keep the playoff at four so that the teams with pretty clearly the best season long performance get a shot at the Natty.

Go Tigers!!

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Re: ...and just like that, there are basically just 3 left


Posted: Nov 11, 2019 12:45 PM
    Reply

Man, I sure hope our third string defense gets it together between now and the playoffs. Sure didn't look like it against Nancy state.

2019 student level member

Re: ...and just like that, there are basically just 3 left


Posted: Nov 11, 2019 4:38 PM
    Reply

I see it as NC State was playing their starters, and we were play mostly backups, and unless it's in a blow out game, those guys will only fill in for starters to catch a play or 2 rest, and it won't be all of them at once like in a blow out, and as a fill in for a play or 2, they will be fine!!!

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Re: ...and just like that, there are basically just 3 left

[1]
Posted: Nov 11, 2019 3:30 PM
    Reply

Back to back 15-0 and back to back NC wins still don't mean a thing to the talking heads if we make it that far again this season. What it will mean though, it would be a long time before another team ever beats that record in the record books if we're able to repeat as back to back 15-0 seasons, and back to back Natty wins!!!

But at the start of 2020 season, LSU and Bama will be ranked 1 and 2 if they win their first game of the season, or they will be 1 and 2 at the beginning of fall camp. But Hey, it will be good to be recognized as the best team in the country, if only for a few months, and that is just the way it is!!! Go Tigers, beat them all!!!

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