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CU Medallion [73569]
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Rock Defender [53]
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Says a lot about both bases really.
Mar 15, 2016, 11:49 AM
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This may be the first nomination ever won solely out of spite.
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CU Medallion [73569]
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you got that right
Mar 15, 2016, 11:50 AM
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what do you expect when you go against your base at every turn. Politicians are idiots if they don't think there will be backlash.
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110%er [5887]
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Re: you got that right
Mar 15, 2016, 11:53 AM
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So you respond by electing the one candidate LESS qualified or sane than all the other worthless politicians?
Seems about par for the conservative course, but it doesn't make much sense if the real concern is living in a better country.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Dems are kind of in a glass house on this one too
Mar 15, 2016, 11:54 AM
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as we all patiently await Clinton's coronation. She may be the one candidate less trustworthy than Trump.
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CU Medallion [73569]
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plus she has no energy in her base
Mar 15, 2016, 12:05 PM
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I can bet you anything, the dems are more scared of Trump than anyone else. His voters have energy around him. They will go out to vote.
With Hillary guys and black voters will go way down from 4 yrs ago.
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All-TigerNet [13605]
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Re: plus she has no energy in her base
Mar 15, 2016, 12:11 PM
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There is already evidence of that. Voting has been down HUGE in dem primaries compared to 08/12.
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All-In [28802]
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It's down from '08 because it was Clinton/ Obama
Mar 15, 2016, 1:36 PM
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This is a much less compelling choice for most Democrats. However, that has almost nothing to do with a general election in which a candidate reviled by almost all Democrats- and many Republicans- would be matched up with Hillary.
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All-TigerNet [13605]
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Re: It's down from '08 because it was Clinton/ Obama
Mar 15, 2016, 2:32 PM
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> This is a much less compelling choice for most
> Democrats. However, that has almost nothing to do
> with a general election in which a candidate reviled
> by almost all Democrats- and many Republicans- would
> be matched up with Hillary.
The same could be said about Hillary. She is reviled by most Republicans and many Democrats . sorry but I'm not seeing any enthusiasm for Hillary.
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All-In [28802]
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If the choice is her or Trump, there will be enthusiasm
Mar 15, 2016, 2:37 PM
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Hillary isn't totally unacceptable to Democrats in the same way that Trump is unacceptable to Republicans. There aren't people planning for how a brokered convention might stop Hillary if she's the nominee (obviously, you'd need more candidates with significant support), or for how a third-party candidate might be able to run to represent the mainstream party. People aren't talking about crossing over to vote for Trump if Hillary is the candidate.
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All-TigerNet [13605]
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Re: If the choice is her or Trump, there will be enthusiasm
Mar 15, 2016, 2:40 PM
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They aren't?
I've seen a few dems talking about crossing over. In fact, personally I've seen more dems saying they'd cross over than I have Republicans say they'd cross over to Hillary.
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All-TigerNet [13605]
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Re: If the choice is her or Trump, there will be enthusiasm
Mar 15, 2016, 2:42 PM
[ in reply to If the choice is her or Trump, there will be enthusiasm ] |
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The dems have two choices, Republicans still have four choices. Of course, Hillary isn't going to be as unacceptable as Trump is currently. Hell, if Clinton is unacceptable, they only have one choice to fall back on
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All-In [28802]
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You're missing the point
Mar 15, 2016, 3:02 PM
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Trump isn't unacceptable to Republicans because they like another candidate. Usually, voters in a primary aren't petty enough not to support their party's candidate even when it isn't who they voted for. But Trump is entirely different. Many Republican voters will not vote for him, no matter what.
Look at all the polling. Far fewer Democrats say they would never support Clinton than Republicans who say they would never support Trump. And support for Clinton goes way up among Democrats if you ask them whether they'd support her or Trump.
Primary turnout and enthusiasm just isn't a good predictor of general election turnout or enthusiasm, and this will be a good example of that if Trump is the nominee.
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All-TigerNet [13605]
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Re: You're missing the point
Mar 15, 2016, 3:35 PM
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I get your point. Again, my point is those numbers for Trump WILL change when it gets down to two candidates. I believe we'd see the same thing on the D side if they're were still four or five major candidates running.
But, primary turnout isnt a good indicator?
How many times over the last 10 elections did primary turnout not be a good indicator of the general election? I already know the answer to that but let's see if you'll answer it. Yet, primary turnout in your words is no indicator.
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All-TigerNet [13605]
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Re: You're missing the point
Mar 15, 2016, 3:43 PM
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Hell, the Hillary campaign is worried about the enthusiasm of voters in the primary against a Democratic socialist.
Yet, somehow those people gonna get enthusiastic for Clinton when it comes to Trump.
As I said above, it'll either be closer than you think it'll be or voting will be down huge on BOTH sides. I'm just not seeing people rushing to the polls for Hillary.
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All-In [28802]
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All-TigerNet [13605]
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Re: There's no correlation between primary turnout...
Mar 15, 2016, 4:24 PM
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"Though it may not be the single predictor of a general election win, enthusiasm in the nominating contests is still meaningful."
Also, in 3 out of 6, the party getting more primary turnout, also got more general turnout.
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All-In [28802]
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So, is there a correlation or not?
Mar 15, 2016, 4:30 PM
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There's not. We're also dealing with a pretty special case here, where the majority of Republicans can't stand Trump and won't vote for him. That's different than just having a weak candidate like Hillary.
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All-TigerNet [13605]
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Re: So, is there a correlation or not?
Mar 15, 2016, 4:31 PM
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I just quoted from the article you shared.
Maybe you didn't read it?
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All-TigerNet [13605]
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Re: So, is there a correlation or not?
Mar 15, 2016, 4:36 PM
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I don't want Trump, and I don't want Hillary. We're screwed either way IMHO.
But, I don't think it's gonna be some huge blowout like you believe.
We're also not looking at how voters are tired of the D. In the article you shared, 1992 the tide turned against the R's; the DS won in the primary and general.
In 2000, the tide turned against the D's and Republicans won the primary turnout. In 2008, the tide then turned against the R's and the D's won primary and general. Something about that 8 year rule.
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All-In [28802]
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All-TigerNet [13605]
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Re: So, is there a correlation or not?
Mar 15, 2016, 4:58 PM
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Or maybe you try to change the goal posts? Maybe that's why you like editing posts? You said the primary is no indicator but the article YOU posted agrees with me.
Maybe you need to get your head out of the Establishment's ###?
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All-TigerNet [13605]
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Re: So, is there a correlation or not?
Mar 15, 2016, 5:09 PM
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"Primary turnout and enthusiasm just isn't a good predictor of general election turnout or enthusiasm,"
Yet the article you posted said enthusiasm is meaningful.
That's exactly what I've said all along. Does it always matter? No,but it did in 92, 2000 and 2008.
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All-TigerNet [13605]
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Re: It's down from '08 because it was Clinton/ Obama
Mar 15, 2016, 2:39 PM
[ in reply to Re: It's down from '08 because it was Clinton/ Obama ] |
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If anything, voting will be down on both sides in the general if it's Hillary/Trump.
Even most polls show the lack of enthusiasm on the dem side. That may change between now and November but if the election were held today, Id bet it'd be a lot closer than the media and you guys claim it'll be.
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Rock Defender [53]
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I fear that a Trump nomination makes Clinton a shoo-in
Mar 15, 2016, 12:15 PM
[ in reply to plus she has no energy in her base ] |
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if she picks Sanders as VP. Although with her campaign tactics, that would be quite the pill for the old man to swallow.
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All-In [28802]
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Sanders makes no sense at all as a VP for Clinton
Mar 15, 2016, 1:33 PM
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They aren't compatible on policy, politics, or on personality.
Message was edited by: camcgee®
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Rock Defender [53]
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When has she ever cared about those pesky details?
Mar 15, 2016, 2:09 PM
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If it's a convenient way to "re-brand" herself, she'll take the opportunity.
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All-In [28802]
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It would be like Cruz picking Susan Collins
Mar 15, 2016, 4:26 PM
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First of all, Susan Collins/ Bernie wouldn't accept. Second of all, Cruz/ Hillary would never do that. Third, I don't see how either of them would add much to the top of the ticket.
Message was edited by: camcgee®
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All-In [28802]
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Trump will not win a general election
Mar 15, 2016, 1:31 PM
[ in reply to plus she has no energy in her base ] |
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It simply doesn't matter how much energy your supporters have if the vast majority of people, even in your own party, are opposed to you. And while Clinton's base isn't highly energized to vote for her in the primary, having Trump as an opponent will certainly energize them.
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CU Medallion [73569]
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no
Mar 15, 2016, 12:03 PM
[ in reply to Re: you got that right ] |
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with Rubio and Bush, you know what you are getting. We have 99% of pubs in office right now who told their base, screw you, we're not doing what we said we would do when we lied to you to get elected. We already know what they will do and that is screw us.
Cruz is my first choice, but Trump is my second. With Trump, it's change. It won't be the same ole same ole. He will blow things up. It may be for the good or for the bad. People are willing to take that gamble. With Rubio, we already know he will spend out his ###, put forth amnesty, and basically do what we have gotten with both dems and pubs for the past 20 yrs.
Anyway, my point is, people are pissed and dont want to elect something they already KNOW will be the same crap. People are willing to take a gamble. Obviously there are a ton that feel the same way.
People would rather lose with Trump than lose with someone like Rubio and Bush and Romney. Make no mistake, even if Rubio was the nominee, the media will destroy him once he runs against Hillary.
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110%er [5887]
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Re: no
Mar 15, 2016, 12:47 PM
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That's fair...although I would have to opine that the gamble isn't worth it.
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All-In [28802]
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That's pretty much the perception
Mar 15, 2016, 2:34 PM
[ in reply to no ] |
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It's wrong on many details, but it's how a lot of people feel.
Ironically, people like this are voting for "change" with Trump just the same as people voted for "change" with Obama. Conservatives lampooned the emptiness of a slogan about "change," but now some of them are voting for a guy just because he's different.
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CU Medallion [73569]
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that's probably true***
Mar 15, 2016, 3:23 PM
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Heisman Winner [119717]
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Obama was elected
Mar 15, 2016, 12:15 PM
[ in reply to Re: you got that right ] |
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with absolutely no qualifications...
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110%er [5887]
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Re: Obama was elected
Mar 15, 2016, 12:31 PM
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I didn't vote for Obama's obnoxiously positive demagoguery, so I cannot in good faith vote Trump's obnoxiously negative demagoguery.
A little balance is all that's needed to see that we all deserve better.
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Oculus Spirit [79429]
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Vote Waka Flocka 2016***
Mar 15, 2016, 12:35 PM
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110%er [5887]
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Re: Vote Waka Flocka 2016***
Mar 15, 2016, 12:46 PM
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All-In [28802]
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Trump's core support isn't from conservatives
Mar 15, 2016, 1:29 PM
[ in reply to Re: you got that right ] |
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So there's that. But most of his supporters feel like none of "politicians" that they could elect would be any better than Trump, so they might as well blow up the system. It's not a lot different than the people voting for Bernie because his policies are so much more extreme. They also want to blow up the system, it's just the Bernie is much more of a gentleman than Trump.
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110%er [7980]
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Orange Blooded [3590]
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Left wing fascists.***
Mar 15, 2016, 1:02 PM
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All-In [28802]
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But he hasn't actually gotten 50% in any state, right?
Mar 15, 2016, 1:26 PM
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So how does that make sense?
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Rock Defender [53]
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Take 100 voters. 55 vote for Trump. 27 in one state,
Mar 15, 2016, 2:38 PM
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28 in another. The other 45 are split between the other candidates. 55% voted for Trump.
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All-In [28802]
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Not sure that's how stats are supposed to work...***
Mar 15, 2016, 2:51 PM
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Rock Defender [53]
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It kind of is though. You can have 50% of voters
Mar 15, 2016, 2:58 PM
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nationwide without having 50% in any particular state.
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All-In [28802]
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The only way that would make sense...
Mar 15, 2016, 3:16 PM
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is if you had a large plurality in states with larger populations, but much smaller numbers of supporters in smaller states. But that's not what we've seen with Trump.
You're mixing up your percentages and your total respondents. If, in this poll, 28 people in one place said they supported Trump and 27 people in the other place said they supported Trump, that doesn't mean 28% or 27% in one place or another supported Trump.
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Rock Defender [53]
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I get that. Maybe some folks have changed their support
Mar 15, 2016, 3:21 PM
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after they voted. Maybe some in caucus states really supported Trump but were too embarrassed to caucus for him. He's consistently finishing 1st. Other candidates are taking turns in 2nd, 3rd and 4th.
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Orange Blooded [4142]
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Re: Thanks Moveon rioters
Mar 15, 2016, 9:02 PM
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I don't think I can stay in this country if I have to see Hillary or Trump as president .
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CU Medallion [55780]
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told ya!
Mar 15, 2016, 9:18 PM
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But I'll vote for The Donald all day before I'd vote for Hillary or Cruz.
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