Topic: looking at the CFP scenarios... and Washington could be
Replies: 21   Last Post: Nov 29, 2016 4:47 PM by: jdtiger98
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looking at the CFP scenarios... and Washington could be

Posted: Nov 29, 2016 2:32 PM

screwed either way...

Washington can win the PAC 12 with 1 loss, but they have a horrific SOS... one of the worst in FBS.

If the committee is intent on putting Ohio St. in the playoff, Washington would have to get in over the B1G champ, and I don't know if that's possible.

PSU would have a conference championship and better wins than Washington.

Wisconsin would have a conference championship and a better resume than Washington (only losses to OSU and Michigan)

Washington's only chance may be if the committee DOESN'T put Ohio St. in... If all goes according to chalk, that could be the decision for spots 4 and 5.

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Re: looking at the CFP scenarios... and Washington could be

Posted: Nov 29, 2016 2:39 PM

OSU only gets in if Penn St loses.

OSU's schedule can take a hit tonight if Nebraska falls out of the Top 25.

3-1 versus the Top 25, including a win versus perineally overrated OU, and two OT wins.

Michigan played a hurt QB and not to lose, while Wisconsin started a new QB for the first time against OSU.

OSU also came very close to a third OT versus Michigan State, only because Michigan St went for a two point conversation.

I must be missing everything on how great this OSU team is. lol

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Should Wisconsin and Washington win their games

Posted: Nov 29, 2016 2:51 PM

convincingly, would that put them at #3 and #4? I haven't watched enough of Wisconsin in the past month to know how they are playing.

Shoot, we just better TCB on Saturday night!! Nothing else matters until then.

that's my point.. in that scenario, I think the committee

Posted: Nov 29, 2016 2:54 PM

has to choose between Washington (Pac 12 champ, 1 loss, HORRIBLE SOS) and Ohio St. (no conference championship, better SOS than UW) for the 4th spot.

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I'm thinking in that scenario they honor a conference

Posted: Nov 29, 2016 3:02 PM

championship. Anyway, will be fun to watch play out.

agreed... but an OU win Saturday would also boost

Posted: Nov 29, 2016 2:52 PM

OSU's SOS...

but I agree with you in that OSU's only path could be a Wisconsin win. In that case, I'm not sure the final rankings don't have

3. Wisconsin
4. OSU
5. Washington

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I have been thinking the same thing....

Posted: Nov 29, 2016 2:53 PM

I expect Ohio St to be #2 tonight, but after Clemson and Washington win their conference championships games, they will move to #2 and #3. Then the committee will have to decide what to do with Ohio St & Penn St (assuming they win). Might be tough to keep Penn St out, especially if they win by 12-14 or more. If Wisky wins, then Ohio St is in based on one loss and head to head.

You think Penn St. gets in with a win, but Wisconsin

Posted: Nov 29, 2016 2:55 PM

does not?

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Re: You think Penn St. gets in with a win, but Wisconsin

Posted: Nov 29, 2016 2:59 PM

Basically, yes. Whoever wins BIG10 Champ game will have 2 losses. I think a lot of people think OSU should be in, but also want to maintain importance of Conf Champs and head to head.

If Penn State wins, they have H2H over OSU and Conf Champ, but have the 2 losses vs 1 loss. Committee takes Penn St.

If Wisky wins, they have Conf Champ, but OSU has H2H at Wisky and 1 less loss. They take OSU.

It would be described as "razor thin close", but that's my hunch of what they'd do.

I agree... what I'm saying is that I could see Wisconsin in

Posted: Nov 29, 2016 3:06 PM

over Washington in that scenario...

UW has a terrible SOS. I'm not convinced the B1G champ doesn't get in regardless...

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I don't think they would leave out the PAC-12 Champ

Posted: Nov 29, 2016 3:11 PM

with only 1 loss to take an at-large team. Now if Wash loses, then I definitely think OSU and BIG10 Champ are in.

Re: looking at the CFP scenarios... and Washington could be

Posted: Nov 29, 2016 2:59 PM

I know your post is rhetorical, but I 'member when TNet was up in arms on how style points didn't matter with wins over FSU, Louisville, and NC State by very narrow margins as well as not exactly convincing ones against Troy and Auburn. All I heard was that a win is a win and that is what mattered most.

So applying that to OSU with outcomes being the primary driver of rankings and not style, I can see why they are ranked high.

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Re: looking at the CFP scenarios... and Washington could be

Posted: Nov 29, 2016 4:09 PM

I am implying they are there due to ratings (AKA B1G Lovefest).

Who have these B1G teams beat OOC besides an overrated OU and Colorado in the Big House, once the Colorado QB got hurt?

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Regarding out-of conference wins

Posted: Nov 29, 2016 4:40 PM

You can down play the oklahoma win all you want, but they are in the top 10. Wisky beat LSU and yes Michigan put Colorado away when their QB got hurt, but if Colorado beats Washington they have wins over two other conference champions.

Following your logic, who has the ACC beat? Actually a decent slate, but not comparable to the B1G.
Florida (want to talk overrated), Auburn, Penn State

Southern Cal, Va Tech

The PAC-12 or Big XII???
Not sure they won a meaningful OOC game. I guess if you count OK State over Pitt, score one for the Big XII.

^^^ Agreed ^^^

Posted: Nov 29, 2016 4:17 PM


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The Ohio State problem....

Posted: Nov 29, 2016 3:19 PM

if you allow OSU into the playoff over the PSU/Wisc winner, you have in essence REWARDED them for avoiding a 13th/Championship game, and given them a bye for LOSING a game.

That's my issue with allowing a non-champion in the playoff. A team playing - and winning - a 13th game is infinitely more deserving a playoff berth over a team sitting home.

I'm definitely on the "most deserving team" side of the argument vs. "best team"

But as a Clemson fan, the more Big 10 teams that are allowed in, the better for us.


Re: The Ohio State problem....

Posted: Nov 29, 2016 4:07 PM

Kept TCU/Baylor out previously and let OSU sneak in the back door and win a NC that, imo, they should not have been invited to, so they can set this one out. No way it works both ways for them.

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The TCU/Baylor issue was a totally different argument

Posted: Nov 29, 2016 4:30 PM

TCU, Baylor, and Ohio State all had 1 loss, but TCU and Baylor were NOT conference champions because the BIG XII in their infinite wisdom crowned them co-champs.

Ohio State jumped them because all three had 1 loss, all had similar resumes but only ONE was an out-right conference champ.

This year is a different scenario.

Ohio State has defeated three teams that are higher ranked than ANYONE that Washington will even play (or Clemson for that matter) Their loss is a better loss than Washington's loss. To me Ohio state has clearly differentiated that they have a better body of work than Washington regardless of Washington winning the PAC-12 and they'll be in the playoff because of that, not because they are dodging a conf title game. They've already played enough good teams to not need that game.

Per the committee conference titles only come into play when the teams compared are comparable teams. In 2014, those three teams were comparable and the conference title bump Ohio State in.

In my mind Ohio State's body of work is easily better than Washington's. Thus the conference title argument isn't going to matter when comparing those teams.

Re: The Ohio State problem....

Posted: Nov 29, 2016 4:47 PM

In this case I see it more as Penn St is getting rewarded with an opportunity to get an extra good win. Ohio St has already played a tougher schedule with better overall results. Penn St has to play a 13th game against Wisconsin, but Ohio St has already beaten Wisconsin, on the road, so that extra game Penn St had to play is really against Purdue (or Iowa or Minnesota, but Ohio St matched that with Nebraska and Northwestern). I think Ohio St could handle Purdue.

Also, if you are picking Penn St over Ohio St with conference championship as a big part of the reason, you are literally picking Penn St over Ohio St because Iowa beat Michigan. How does that make sense?

Re: looking at the CFP scenarios... and Washington could be

Posted: Nov 29, 2016 3:20 PM

If Ohio State gets in I expect the Big Ten Champ will also get in ... and Washington is the sensible team left out.

I DO NOT want Ohio State in my national championship playoff! Why? The Buckeyes are 9-1-2 and only a decision (By MSU) from being 8-1-3 and only a better play (By MSU) from being 8-2-2. To me that is too tenuous to be included.


Re: looking at the CFP scenarios... and Washington could be

Posted: Nov 29, 2016 4:15 PM

1 loss is better than 2 losses ...to the committee. These folks know that resume is important , but not so much if you didn't take care of business directly while building the resume .
Washington will be in if they win out , book it .

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Re: looking at the CFP scenarios

Posted: Nov 29, 2016 4:21 PM

Some great points throughout.

I think seeing what the CFP Committee does tonight is going to be VERY telling as to how the four teams will play out next Sunday.

(well, that AND the Championship game results)


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