If The Committee does what it usually does...

Nov 13, 2016, 6:32 PM

...and favors conference champions who actually played in conference championship games, it makes the math a lot simpler.

Alabama is almost certainly in, and will stroll into the #1 seed - which unfortunately means they get the Peach Bowl and Georgia as their opening venue - almost regardless of what happens. They can lose the Iron Bowl; doesn't matter. They've already clinched the West. And they're going to be favored by about 50 over whatever shambling monstrosity drags itself out of the cesspit that is the SEC East.

If Clemson wins the ACC, we still get in pretty much automatically, either as the #2 or #3 seed. which doesn't much matter except for the color of the uniform we wear. What does matter is it also means we get the Fiesta Bowl and Arizona...again. The only real good news there is Clemson will be very familiar with that venue having played the national title game there last year.

I think we can safely say, whoever gets the #2 (or #3) seed will be the B1G Champ. Michigan wins out it's theirs. If Ohio State beats Michigan, Penn State or Wisconsin will fight for that honor. Ohio State is pretty much buggered even if they beat Michigan because Penn State - who has only 1 B1G loss (their other loss was to Pitt, which seems more understandable now) owns the tie-breaker with Ohio State.

That leaves the #4 spot. Politics for this spot are likely to get bloody. If Washington wins out they'll finish with 1 loss and the Pac-12 Championship and they get first dibs. This is the cleanest option, which of course means it won't happen that way. If Washington loses again at any point, it'll likely go to either Ohio State or Louisville because both have only one loss though neither is likely to get a conference championship. Go figure which way The Committee would vote there if both win their last two games; Ohio State will have had better wins - against Michigan, against Wisconsin, against Nebraska - whereas Louisville would have the best loss, on the road to Clemson.

The only other teams I see that remotely have a chance of creeping back into it are either Oklahoma or West Virginia. The press guys keep talking up the Sooners, but Oklahoma's got two losses and effectively will be eliminated if Louisville wins this Thursday at Houston, since Houston already beat Oklahoma this year and would almost certainly finish with a loss less than the Sooners anyhow; no way Oklahoma jumps the Cardinals in that case. West Virginia could be the Dark Horse to watch for that final spot, though - if the Mountaineers beat Oklahoma in Blacksburg this Saturday, they then only have to beat Iowa State on the road and a spiraling Baylor team at home to finish 11-1 and as champions of the Big 12. So even though they're at #10 in the polls right now, West Virginia almost seems like the likeliest team to me to sneak into the #4 spot. Again, though, the ineptitude of the Big 12 brass seems likely to bite them - the Big 12 presidents did vote for a Big 12 title game...starting in 2017. Here in 2016, their champ will still be left without one even as some powerful 1-loss teams like Ohio State and Louisville could well be in the mix. Would The Committee pick even a 1-loss West Virginia over Ohio State or Louisville if they finish with the same record? Doubtful.

So in a nutshell we're looking at:
1 - Alabama
2 or 3 - Clemson if we win out
2 or 3 - Whoever wins B1G (Michigan/Penn State/Wisconsin)
4 - Washington/Ohio State/Louisville/Oklahoma/West Virginia

Whatever, it's probably about time to start shopping those discount flights back to Arizona.

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the beginning of CFP era. High percentage will be Power 5 champions in the playoffs, almost like a lock. Those who don't win have a lot but slim shot.

An example of a scenario that Power 5 champions will be left out:

- Florida loses to Florida State and somehow beats Alabama for the SEC title.
- Big 12 champion has 3 losses.

This is a more likely scenario that champions could be left out. Even with this scenario, Louisville might not get in.

Many still believe that a 2-loss champion might not be jumped ahead by a 1-loss team. I kinda disagree and lean toward the 2-loss champions, even for the Big 12, unless it looks really bad at the end of the season.

I think the rule of thumb can be like this (puts teams in until they fill in the 4 spots):

- Priority is given to undefeated Power 5 champions.
- Priority is given to 1-loss Power 5 champions.
- NOTE: Big 12 has the least priority among Power 5 champions for the same number of losses.
- Priority is more likely given to 2-loss Power 5 champions, but this is where the committee comes into play.

Things will change a lot after championship week.

If The Committee does what it usually does...

Re: If The Committee does what it usually does...

Re: If The Committee does what it usually does...

No, because that would be allowing a 2 loss team in over

I think you are spot on

Concur. And I think this loss will re-focus the team.***

Re: I think you are spot on

Re: I think you are spot on

Exactly . . . assuming the committee sticks to their

Re: If The Committee does what it usually does...

I'm not so sure. Really think it would take

Re: If The Committee does what it usually does...

This has always been what I think since...

Agree. And a lot will happen between now and the last

Re: Agree. And a lot will happen between now and the last

yeah. There's that...***

Agree, except if Wisconsin or PSU

Re: Agree, except if Wisconsin or PSU

Re: If The Committee does what it usually does...

Right now my biggest concern is Weak Florist and the Coots...

Re: If The Committee does what it usually does...

Why is West Virginia playing Oklahoma in Blacksburg?***

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