Just basic observation would tell you that Trump will win. His rallies and enthusiasm is far greater this year than 4 years ago. There are more trump supporters showing up to biden rallies than Biden supporters. There is virtually no enthusiasm behind Biden.
I have only heard of 2 people that voted Trump 4 years ago but aren’t voting for him now. Those 2 people were on TigerNet and I don’t know personally. Likewise, I know over 10 people including myself that didn’t vote for him 4 years ago but are this year.
The only chance I see for biden to win is if voting turnout is Exponentially better than 4 years ago. It very well could be. All indications as of now say that yes, the turnout will be much better. So I guess we shall see.
Trump has gained support with African Americans and Latinos as well. Is this enough to offset the record turn out? We will see soon.