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Topic: Facts and numbers for COVID19, no need to panic just yet
Replies: 19   Last Post: Mar 27, 2020 5:49 PM by: jdtiger98
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Facts and numbers for COVID19, no need to panic just yet

[9]
Posted: Mar 27, 2020 10:09 AM
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chart.JPG(79.1 K)

I'm a numbers guy. Numbers don't lie and numbers don't sensationalize. They can be manipulated, but when used in proper context, they tell the truth. Here's the current story of this virus, and all numbers are from the CDC.

As of this morning, there are 85,996 confirmed cases in the US and 1300 deaths. The media is quick to announce that we now lead the world. But here's some perspective (same chart is attached):

Country Population # Confirmed % of Population Deaths % of Confirmed % of Population
Italy 60,480,000 80589 0.1332% 8215 10.19% 0.01358%
Spain 46,660,000 57786 0.1238% 4858 8.41% 0.01041%
Iran 81,160,000 32332 0.0398% 2378 7.35% 0.00293%
France 66,990,000 29581 0.0442% 1698 5.74% 0.00253%
UK 66,440,000 11816 0.0178% 580 4.91% 0.00087%
China 1,386,000,000 81897 0.0059% 3296 4.02% 0.00024%
USA 327,200,000 85996 0.0263% 1300 1.51% 0.00040%
Germany 82,790,000 47278 0.0571% 281 0.59% 0.00034%

While we do currently have more confirmed cases than any other nation, we still have one of the lowest mortality rates of the countries most affected. Also, the number of confirmed cases as a percent of our population puts us 6th in the list above, behind everyone except the UK and Germany. No need to panic just yet.

When looking at the numbers for the United States, however, it's important to note that 48.3% of the confirmed cases in the US are in the greater NY/NJ area. Of our national total, almost 27% are in NYC alone. But at the same time, the mortality rate in NYC is 1.21% - lower than the US average of 1.51%, so those health care workers, and all of the medical professionals in the US, are doing a heckuva job managing this crisis. So, no need to panic just yet.

In South Carolina, we had 456 cases as of this morning and 9 deaths. This amounts to 0.009% of our population being confirmed with the virus. Of those, the current mortality rate is 1.97%. Since 3/16, the average mortality rate in SC has been 1.67%. When comparing it to our total population, 0.00018% of the population has died of the COVID-19 virus. No need to panic just yet.

Of note, from DHEC's own web site, in SC alone, 99 people have died from the flu this flu season (from Oct 2019 - present). Only 9 have died in SC so far from COVID-19. So what's the big deal?

The big deal is the growth rate. These numbers will look just at SC since the US numbers are greatly skewed by WA and NY/NJ. Since 3/16/20, the average day-to-day growth rate of those confirmed to have COVID-19 is 21.03% per day. The high has been around 34% and the low was 7% per day, which was between yesterday and today. IF the growth rate were to persist at the average of 21.03% per day, by the beginning of May, SC would have 338,116 people confirmed with the virus, or 6.65% of the population and an estimated 5,660 dead (using the current average mortality rate). That's if the growth rate were to continue at the current rate, which, with all the measures in place, it likely will not. If the growth rate were to average 15%, we would see 1% of the population infected by May 1, or 56,466 people with 945 dead. If it drops down to an average of 10% day-to-day growth, the state total would be 0.234% or 11,915 with 199 dead by May 1. Bump it down to 7%, like we had yesterday/today, and you're looking at less than one tenth of one percent - 0.089% or 4,527 infected and only 76 dead by May 1.

Last, let's look at how it spreads. There is a BIG difference between being EXPOSED to the virus and CATCHING the virus. Take a look at the Utah Jazz, who had 2 players confirmed in March. There are 17 players on the team and 6 coaches (23 total). There are few groups of people who are in closer contact with one another than a basketball team who breathe on each other, sit shoulder to shoulder, and share the same seats, workout equipment, etc, and this was in the early stages when we weren't so cautious. I can't believe that no one else on this team was exposed to the virus, but it is a fact that no one else has yet to be confirmed to be infected. Not all those who are exposed will be infected. Very few, actually. On this team alone, the rate is 9%, and that's with extreme circumstances. In daily life, we don't know the numbers, but it's sure to be less than that. Don't panic or be paranoid and think that exposure is equal to infection. It's not.

Take all this however you want to take it. The bottom line is that if we do nothing, the virus will likely spread dramatically and it WILL be a major health crisis across the board and in every state. Going back to the NBA, there have been no new cases reported in the league since mid March, when extreme measures started going in to effect. It hasn't spread any further in the league since then. Hopefully, if we keep taking the reasonable precautions we're taking, we can keep this thing from spreading and come out of it fairly well. Currently, it's not the end of the world as we know it, the eve of destruction, or whatever apocalyptic song you prefer, but if it went unchecked it could be. Hope all this helps a bit. No need to panic. Not yet, anyway.


China is definitely lying, so their #'s are irrelevant***

[1]
Posted: Mar 27, 2020 10:22 AM
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2020 purple level member

Stop testing!

[1]
Posted: Mar 27, 2020 10:26 AM
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Unless you're crawling to the Dr, why test? Let's say you drove yourself to the drive through test site, did your thing, drove home and stopped at Starbucks on the way home. In 2 days when you get your positive results, what are you going to do different? Not go to Starbucks? You weren't supposed to be going there anyhow. LET'S STAY AT HOME AND KICK THIS THING IN THE TAIL!!!

Stay well Tiger Nation!

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Go Tigers AND Tiger Nation!


Re: Stop testing!

[1]
Posted: Mar 27, 2020 11:17 AM
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People that know they are contagious will be more likely to quarantine better.

2020 white level member

Evidently they don't know what I know


Posted: Mar 27, 2020 3:48 PM
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from watching The Walking Dead, WE ALL HAVE IT! Some are worse than others. I'm practicing shelter in place because they don't test here in Switzerland unless you're crawling to the doctors door. Again people, STAY AT HOME AND LET'S KICK THIS THING IN THE TAIL!

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Go Tigers AND Tiger Nation!


I would imagine that data will be important to learn more


Posted: Mar 27, 2020 3:18 PM
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about the virus going forward. Right now the only things we can quantify with any certainty are hospitalizations and deaths. We have nearly no idea how many Americans are actually infected. We have ~90k confirmed cases in the US right now, but how many are actually infected? 200k? 500k?

2020 white level member

Ignorance is bliss!

[1]
Posted: Mar 27, 2020 3:36 PM
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What you don't know can't hurt you!

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Re: Facts and numbers for COVID19, no need to panic just yet

[1]
Posted: Mar 27, 2020 10:38 AM
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Thank you for the info. Numbers do not lie.

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Re: Facts and numbers for COVID19, no need to panic just yet


Posted: Mar 27, 2020 10:53 AM
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Tell all this to New Orleans in view of where they are headed because of Mardi Gras. Children under 18 are dying and numbers do not lie, but they do not cure. Thanks for the hard work on the research.


Re: Facts and numbers for COVID19, no need to panic just yet


Posted: Mar 27, 2020 11:01 AM
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How many children under 18 have died?


Not many at all.

[1]
Posted: Mar 27, 2020 11:13 AM
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The media just likes to sensationalize those cases to illustrate that “this affects young people too.”

2020 white level member

Brad Brownell: all-time winningest coach in Clemson men's basketball history, and only coach to beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill.


That's one of the problems

[2]
Posted: Mar 27, 2020 11:19 AM
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They're sensationalizing everything. The media outlets are experiencing their highest ratings probably since 9/11 and they're going to milk this for all it's worth. The down side is that we're not going to get the most accurate information. It'll be whatever gets the most people to watch or click.


Re: That's one of the problems

[2]
Posted: Mar 27, 2020 11:23 AM
    Reply

I've been on confidential calls at the federal level and what bureaucrats and politicians are being told is much worse than what's being reported publicly.

Our relatively low death rate is currently irrelevant because we're not out of ventilators yet (except a few local spots). Once we are, the death rate will catch up.

For severe cases, ventilators are the only real treatment.


Re: That's one of the problems

[1]
Posted: Mar 27, 2020 2:09 PM
    Reply

I've only been away from my home a few times since the beginning of the COVID-19 in the US when the numbers were very low, and they were low bc there wasn't any test to test for the virus, and the government used the low numbers as if what they were doing was the right thing, and I felt then, what they were saying was total BS bc it was already being said that there wasn't that many test with.

Before I go in anywhere away from home, I will pack up my wifes carry conceal fanny pack with 2 pair of latex gloves, 2 masks, 6oz spray bottle of 91% alcohol, a 4oz bottle of purell sanitizer, and baggie with 4 clorox sanitizer wipes. Before I go into the grocery store, I put on a new pair of latex gloves and spray them with 91% alcohol, and I do the same with the mask, both arms and my clothing from head to toe. I stay as far away from everybody as possible. If I put something in the buggy, I spray it with the alcohol, and I will re-spray my gloves after touching anything. When I check out, I will offer the cashier my bottle of purell sanitizer, if they refuse it, I tell them not to bag anything, and I will put them back in the buggy after I have wiped each item with clorox wipes. I put whatever I buy in my own grocery carry bags in the back of our vehicle, put gloves and mask in trash can, and I spray hands, arms, and all clothing with the alcohol before I get back in the vehicle.

I do what I feel I must do to protect my wife and myself from getting sick bc we have to eat to stay strong just in case we end up being one of the unlucky ones. A man has to do what he has to do to try and stay safe!!! ;)

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Re: Facts and numbers for COVID19, no need to panic just yet


Posted: Mar 27, 2020 5:49 PM
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Either zero or one in the US. A 17-year old with the coronavirus died, but they aren't sure yet if it was the coronavirus that caused his death or something else.


Re: Facts and numbers for COVID19, no need to panic just yet


Posted: Mar 27, 2020 12:07 PM
    Reply

The only people panicking are the ones who aren't going to be able to pay their bills until "their" government allows them to leave home.


I'm not sure why "their" is in quotes but one of the main

[1]
Posted: Mar 27, 2020 3:27 PM
    Reply

purposes of a government is to look after the best interests of the collective because, if left to their own devices, people will almost always act selfishly in what they believe is their own best interest, and those beliefs often don't line up with the "greater good" or what have you.

Our government is doing what they believe is best for the 330 million citizens of America. Some are certainly getting the short end of the stick, and i truly feel bad for everyone that's really suffering financially right now, but these measures wouldn't have been taken if the administration didn't feel they were justified.

2020 white level member

Very true. It seems that some people think the government

[2]
Posted: Mar 27, 2020 3:56 PM
    Reply

just wants to be mean or something. The government doesn't want people having to stay home and be out of work. The government doesn't want to see the economy struggle. The government doesn't want to see the stock market crash. And the government definitely doesn't want to spend trillions of dollars to compensate for all of this (at least the fiscally responsible members of our government don't).

2020 white level member

Brad Brownell: all-time winningest coach in Clemson men's basketball history, and only coach to beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill.


Re: Facts and numbers for COVID19, no need to panic just yet

[1]
Posted: Mar 27, 2020 2:41 PM
    Reply

In NC at least, the number of cases has gone up between 200 and 100 over the last couple of days and the number has more or less tracked the increase in testing.

It's not growing exponentially and there are only 3 deaths.

Deaths are the only number that matters aside from "on respirator" in the hospital.

I think we will have much better numbers in a week or two, but right now things don't look like they are going to be that bad aside from the media overreaction and political crap.

The NY Times has a page they are keeping update which is tracking deaths by state and the rate of increase. It's the last graph on the page.

Note that WA, one of the earliest states hit, has 136 deaths and the numbers are leveling off.

NY and MI have the current highest rate of increased deaths, so checking them in a couple of days will tell us a lot more.

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Re: Facts and numbers for COVID19, no need to panic just yet


Posted: Mar 27, 2020 3:06 PM
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It's important to remember that the more cases that are identified in the U.S. our death rate goes down as a proportion of active cases.

Give it some time. The average mortality rate worldwide is 3% except for Italy with 8%. Itally, as it turns out, has a relatively high number of old people as a percentage of their population.

The vast majority of all deaths are men. They haven't figure out why yet.

2020 orange level member

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