CFP Projections - Could the SEC have no one?

Nov 11, 2019, 2:33 PM

The problem with the CFP rankings is that they analyze Game 1 through current. That's fine, but it's useless. More games will be played and there will be more losses. Based on the next 3 weeks, plus the conference championships, here is what I think is most likely to happen.

ACC (1)
Clemson is the only team with a shot in the ACC. They win out they're in at 13-0. If they lose to Wake or to USC, they still have a shot as a 12-1 Conference Champion.

Big 10 (1)
OSU seems to be the choice here, but they have Penn State and Michigan remaining, so they could stumble. And there's Minnesota still undefeated and wondering Why Not Us? I think the Big 10 champion will either be undefeated or have 1 loss. Worst case scenario, they have a 1-loss champion and that team is in.

PAC 12 (maybe 1)
Oregon and Utah seem destined to meet in the PAC 12 championship as 11-1 division champs. That means one of them will be 12-1 and winner of the conference. A 1 loss conference champ should be in, unless it comes down to choosing between two or more 1 loss conference champions.

Big 12 (maybe 1)
Oklahoma has 1 loss and Baylor is undefeated. They play this weekend and the winner will get the edge, although it's possible they play again in the conference championship. If OU wins out, they'll be 12-1 and Big 12 Champs. Baylor could lose this weekend, win out and be the 12-1 conference champ. Either way, it's likely the Big 12 has a 1 loss conference champion.

SEC (1)
First off, Bama is OUT. They have almost no chance to win their division and will finish 11-1 at best. LSU should win their remaining schedule and head to the SEC Championship Game 12-0. In the East, UGA should also win out to face LSU as an 11-1 division champ. The winner of that game (LSU 13-0 or UGA 12-1) should get the nod for the CFP.

This is where things get interesting. If we win out, including the ACCCG, we're 13-0 and at the very least a 3 seed (more likely 2 seed because I think either OSU or LSU loses). If we lose to WF or USC (lol), then we'd be compared, probably unfavorably to some other 1 loss conference champions.

It is entirely possible that the SEC does not get a team in the final CFP. Auburn could create all sorts of havoc by beating UGA this weekend, as UGA could be a 2 loss East division champ and win the SECCG. What would happen if UGA loses to Auburn, but then runs the table to finish as a 11-2 SEC Champion? You'd have 12-1 LSU as the first loser, and 11-1 Alabama (assuming they beat Auburn) as the 3rd loser.

In my mind, if any conference gets left out of the CFP, it seems the SEC might be that one. The scenario is plausible, but not likely. LSU looks really good (and Bama's defense looks really bad).

I started looking at these scenarios because I wanted to figure out how likely it was for the SEC to get 2 teams in the CFP. And, well, I'm happy to predict that the SEC will likely get one in, but never 2... and it's possible they get 0.

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CFP Projections - Could the SEC have no one?

SEC will have one. Can't see LSU losing.

Re: SEC will have one. Can't see LSU losing.

Try using fivethirtyeight.com

If LSU, UGA, and Bama start losing every game they play

Re: If LSU, UGA, and Bama start losing every game they play

thirtyfiveeight.com will help answer most of your questions***

ESPN will cancel the CFP if your scenario were to happen***

Re: CFP Projections - Could the SEC have no one?

Re: CFP Projections - Could the SEC have no one?

No way, no how. The SEC is the ONLY conference that

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