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Orange Blooded [4636]
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CFP Projections - Could the SEC have no one?
Nov 11, 2019, 2:33 PM
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The problem with the CFP rankings is that they analyze Game 1 through current. That's fine, but it's useless. More games will be played and there will be more losses. Based on the next 3 weeks, plus the conference championships, here is what I think is most likely to happen.
ACC (1) Clemson is the only team with a shot in the ACC. They win out they're in at 13-0. If they lose to Wake or to USC, they still have a shot as a 12-1 Conference Champion.
Big 10 (1) OSU seems to be the choice here, but they have Penn State and Michigan remaining, so they could stumble. And there's Minnesota still undefeated and wondering Why Not Us? I think the Big 10 champion will either be undefeated or have 1 loss. Worst case scenario, they have a 1-loss champion and that team is in.
PAC 12 (maybe 1) Oregon and Utah seem destined to meet in the PAC 12 championship as 11-1 division champs. That means one of them will be 12-1 and winner of the conference. A 1 loss conference champ should be in, unless it comes down to choosing between two or more 1 loss conference champions.
Big 12 (maybe 1) Oklahoma has 1 loss and Baylor is undefeated. They play this weekend and the winner will get the edge, although it's possible they play again in the conference championship. If OU wins out, they'll be 12-1 and Big 12 Champs. Baylor could lose this weekend, win out and be the 12-1 conference champ. Either way, it's likely the Big 12 has a 1 loss conference champion.
SEC (1) First off, Bama is OUT. They have almost no chance to win their division and will finish 11-1 at best. LSU should win their remaining schedule and head to the SEC Championship Game 12-0. In the East, UGA should also win out to face LSU as an 11-1 division champ. The winner of that game (LSU 13-0 or UGA 12-1) should get the nod for the CFP.
This is where things get interesting. If we win out, including the ACCCG, we're 13-0 and at the very least a 3 seed (more likely 2 seed because I think either OSU or LSU loses). If we lose to WF or USC (lol), then we'd be compared, probably unfavorably to some other 1 loss conference champions.
It is entirely possible that the SEC does not get a team in the final CFP. Auburn could create all sorts of havoc by beating UGA this weekend, as UGA could be a 2 loss East division champ and win the SECCG. What would happen if UGA loses to Auburn, but then runs the table to finish as a 11-2 SEC Champion? You'd have 12-1 LSU as the first loser, and 11-1 Alabama (assuming they beat Auburn) as the 3rd loser.
In my mind, if any conference gets left out of the CFP, it seems the SEC might be that one. The scenario is plausible, but not likely. LSU looks really good (and Bama's defense looks really bad).
I started looking at these scenarios because I wanted to figure out how likely it was for the SEC to get 2 teams in the CFP. And, well, I'm happy to predict that the SEC will likely get one in, but never 2... and it's possible they get 0.
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110%er [5375]
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SEC will have one. Can't see LSU losing.
Nov 11, 2019, 2:39 PM
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LSU, OSU, Clemson, Bama or Georgia will probably be the playoff teams.
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Orange Blooded [4636]
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Re: SEC will have one. Can't see LSU losing.
Nov 11, 2019, 2:46 PM
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You would favor a 1-loss NON-conference champ over a 1-loss conference champ (like Oklahoma or Oregon)? I find that to be extremely unlikely; especially in your scenario with Bama being in. They won't even play in a conference championship.
Stop and think about how the season will play out. Don't buy into the media hype. They're trying to sell you a story, not accurately (or logically) predict what will happen.
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Orange Blooded [4636]
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Legend [17800]
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If LSU, UGA, and Bama start losing every game they play
Nov 11, 2019, 2:48 PM
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for the rest of the regular season, sure the SEC would not have a team in there.
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Orange Blooded [4636]
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Re: If LSU, UGA, and Bama start losing every game they play
Nov 11, 2019, 2:53 PM
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It is unreasonable that Auburn might be UGA? Or is it unreasonable to think that UGA (with 2 losses), could beat LSU in the SECCG?
I think it's unlikely, but it's not unreasonable. Those will be close games with Vegas lines in the single digits. Auburn is only a 3 point dog against UGA this weekend.
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110%er [5375]
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thirtyfiveeight.com will help answer most of your questions***
Nov 11, 2019, 3:30 PM
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Orange Blooded [3575]
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ESPN will cancel the CFP if your scenario were to happen***
Nov 11, 2019, 2:49 PM
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110%er [6825]
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Re: CFP Projections - Could the SEC have no one?
Nov 11, 2019, 3:36 PM
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*Yes* (but not likely... I would love to see it.
Auburn beats both Jawja and Alabama
LSU drops one to the lesser SEC teams after Joe Burrows failed double keg flip. Maybe A&M.
Georgia beat LSU in title game.
Thus ALL sec teams have two loses. It just means more.
Then you have an undefeated ACC & B10 team. 1 Loss B12 and PAC team. Auburn is 5th, Jawja is 6th, LSU 7th, Bama 8th. FLA 9th.
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CU Guru [1222]
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Re: CFP Projections - Could the SEC have no one?
Nov 11, 2019, 3:43 PM
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Yes...Auburn can be the spoiler and create chaos in the playoffs. TAM can help as well.
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CU Medallion [67200]
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No way, no how. The SEC is the ONLY conference that
Nov 11, 2019, 3:53 PM
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would get their champion in with two losses, if every other top team in that conference also had two losses. I believe they would move heaven and earth, and literally threaten to set fire to the homes of every member of the Committee to make it happen.
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Replies: 10
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