Inside the matchup: Clemson-NC State projections |
No. 4 Clemson’s toughest test left in the regular season comes Saturday afternoon at No. 20 NC State (3:30, ABC).
That’s the weird-but-true nature of this ACC campaign, where a combination of Wolfpack success and Florida State failure has pushed up the de facto Atlantic Division title game by a week. Football Study Hall’s simulations project a Clemson win by about a touchdown (30.4-23.7) with a 65 percent win probability overall, while ESPN’s Football Power Index is a little more confident in Clemson with a 70.8 win projection. The matchup tends to favor a game somewhere in between two years ago in Raleigh (a 56-41 Clemson win) and last year’s overtime nail-biter in Death Valley (a 24-17 Clemson win). The Tigers were held to three touchdowns in six red zone trips last season versus the Wolfpack, a game which included a failed fourth down conversion at the goal line and multiple turnovers in plus-territory. Clemson currently ranks 20th in red zone TD percentage (73.08), facing a top-20 Wolfpack defense in defending touchdowns there (No. 17; 46 percent). Elsewhere, NC State’s veteran defense has been pretty average – and trending down at the moment. Last season, they finished 11th in overall defensive efficiency (S&P+*) and 20th in success rate** ‘D’ (36.7 percent) – strong against the run (12th) and the pass (15), holding opponent explosiveness*** down as well (12). Through eight games this season, they are 68th in defensive efficiency, 53rd in success rate ‘D’ (39.6) – top-50 against the pass (42nd) and the run (43) and down to 90th versus opponent explosiveness. -- Advanced metrics profile Clemson ESPN efficiency rank: Offense – 19. Defense – 3. Special teams – 108. Overall – 8. Football Outsiders efficiency rank (S&P+): Offense – 37. Defense – 3. Special teams – 122. Success rate (Per Football Study Hall): Offense – 20 (47). Defense – 4 (30.4). NC State ESPN efficiency rank: Offense – 13. Defense – 42. Special teams – 89. Overall – 20. Football Outsiders efficiency rank (S&P+): Offense – 27. Defense – 68. Special teams – 108. Success rate (Per Football Study Hall): Offense – 37 (44.8). Defense – 53 (39.6). -- NC State defensive end Bradley Chubb, the ACC’s leader in tackles for loss (16) and sacks (7.5), anchors a group that’s performed well versus critical short-distance runs (28th in power success rate****) and containing runs to around the line of scrimmage (20th in stuff rate). State’s defensive line ranks fifth nationally in havoc rate (8.8; TFLs/passes defended per play), but the ranking falls to 100th for the linebacker unit and 87th for the secondary. Over the last four games – a run including Syracuse, Louisville and Notre Dame as opponents – NC State has surrendered 416 yards per game, which over the season would be 88th nationally. On the flip side, the numbers tell the tale of an NC State offense which Brent Venables calls the “best skill” the Tigers have faced so far. Junior quarterback Ryan Finley leads an aerial attack that ranks 13th in success rate (48.1) and top-20 in adjusted sack rate, excelling in passing downs***** efficiency (16th) and explosiveness (24th). An ever-versatile Jaylen Samuels holds an 86.2 percent catch rate (65 targets) with three touchdowns, while Kelvin Harmon (15 YPR/63.2 catch rate with 68 targets) and Stephen Louis (15.1 YPR; 67.5 catch rate with 40 targets) can stretch the field. Nyheim Hines, who suffered an ankle injury last week versus Notre Dame, is NC State’s big-play threat in the run-game – averaging 5.6 per carry with five of his six touchdowns coming in Wolfpack wins. Another factor to watch Saturday is some drastic Wolfpack efficiency shifts by quarter. NC State ranks 94th in offensive rating in the third quarter and 100th by the fourth quarter. On defense, they’re third-best nationally in fourth quarter, but 54th in the first and 113th going into the half. For reference, Clemson is top-45 in offensive efficiency by quarter (best in the first quarter, 3rd; worst in the fourth, 45th) and top-30 on defense in all but the fourth (59th). On special teams, NC State’s fortunes haven’t improved since last October in Death Valley, as they rank 118th in FG value, which adjusts its rating by length of made attempts. They rank 108th as a unit with their strengths coming on punt success rate (31st, 67.6) and punt return success rate (8th, 77.8), which could take a hit with Hines’ ankle injury. * S&P+ is a Football Study Hall/Football Outsiders metric that combines ratings for the five factors of efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers. ** Success rate is determined by gaining 50 percent of the necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down and 100 percent on third and fourth down. *** IsoPPP metric, which Football Outsiders defines as looking at only the per-play value of a team's successful plays to separate the explosiveness component from the efficiency component. **** Percentage of runs that achieve a first down or touchdown with two or less yards to go on third/fourth down. ***** Passing downs are defined as second down with eight or more yards to go or third or fourth down with five or more yards to go. All other situations are “standard” downs. (Unless otherwise noted, advanced stat figures are from Football Study Hall/Football Outsiders)
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