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Legend [16948]
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NCAA Regional baseball stats
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Jun 4, 2023, 9:11 AM
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Per the NCAA 48% of home hosts go 3-0 in regionals. We are obviously no longer in that category. And it’s well known that coming out of the losers bracket is difficult. But how difficult is it? The overall percentage is heavily skewed because host teams sweep nearly half of all regionals. What about when a host falls to the losers bracket? 68% of all regional hosts advance to a super regional. That means, on average, a host team still has about a 40% chance of still winning the whole thing - virtually identical to a two-seed in the winners bracket. Three and four seeds out of the losers brackets combine for almost 10% of the eventual winners. Those are much better odds than I would have expected.
Host teams also win an average of 77% of their games. Awfully close to the 80% needed to win out of the loser’s bracket.
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CU Medallion [54008]
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Great post. I was wondering what our odds were. Way better
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Jun 4, 2023, 9:23 AM
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than I thought. Now, if you could work it out so Ole Spud could get behind the plate today...the odds would increase GREATLY!
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Scout Team [181]
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Re: Great post. I was wondering what our odds were. Way better
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Jun 4, 2023, 9:26 AM
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Mathematically I believe the odds of any team winning three consecutive games would be 1 in 8. I realize that there are other factors that come into play.
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Orange Blooded [2248]
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Re: Great post. I was wondering what our odds were. Way better
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Jun 4, 2023, 9:41 AM
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That's making the assumption that each game is a coin flip. We'll (like other 1 seeds) be favored in any 1 game. if we were 1 to 2 favorites in 3 games then we are at 8 in 27 or almost 30%.
We just won 17 in a row. If those were all coin flips, then the odds would have been 131,072 to 1. We didn't have that streak because we were that lucky, We had that streak because this team is very good.
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Orange Blooded [2248]
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Re: NCAA Regional baseball stats
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Jun 4, 2023, 9:28 AM
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Nice to know some percentages after seeing so many act as if the season is over. I think that we still are in decent shape. We are better than Charlotte and despite the loss we are better than Tennessee. Our disadvantage is getting deeper into our pitchers with an extra game, but Tennessee pretty much sold out and burnt up 3 pitchers against us. It worked, but if we get back to them then it could come back to bite them.
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All-In [49005]
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Re: NCAA Regional baseball stats
Jun 4, 2023, 9:33 AM
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Yeah, it could, but one of Tennessee strengths is their pitching depth.
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Legend [16948]
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Re: NCAA Regional baseball stats
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Jun 4, 2023, 9:58 AM
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https://utsports.com/sports/baseball/stats![]() The official 2023 Baseball cumulative statistics for the University of Tennessee Volunteers
According to this they only have 5 guys that have pitched more than 30 compete innings all season. Those 5 are great but they’ve burnt 4 of them. After Drew Beam they’re probably gonna have to go Johnny Wholestaff. We need the bats to wake up and force the issue.
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Orange Blooded [2248]
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Re: NCAA Regional baseball stats
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Jun 4, 2023, 10:13 AM
[ in reply to Re: NCAA Regional baseball stats ] |
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I thought that I had heard there was a big drop after the first 4 or 5. Five deep would be deep under normal circumstances but 4 are off the table. If we get back to Tennessee, then I think that it becomes a hitting contest and I like our chances if that is the case. Baseball teams just aren't set up for 5 games in 4 days when it comes to pitching, regardless of who they are.
Yes Tennessee would only play 4, but they managed their pitching to only play 3. Lindsey threw over 100 pitches Friday, Dollander had 90, and Burns had 99 yesterday. None of those 3 would be any good, even Monday.
Coach Bakich used up Grice, but Gordon with 68 pitches Friday could see limited action Monday.
If we get back to Tennessee, they have to beat us today, because they lose if it gets to tomorrow.
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