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Orange Blooded [2397]
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Joined: 1/23/00
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Spread vs. Talking Heads... relax
Oct 23, 2019, 8:58 PM
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The spread is set by people whose job is to predict games. We have beaten the spread 5 out of 7 times. Not bad!
The Talking Heads' job is to express controversial or unique opinions, not necessarily well-reasoned, to get people to listen to them, to get emotional and to talk about them.
So....
We out-performed the expectations of people whose livelihoods depend on setting expectations for us. On the other hand, the people whose jobs are to enflame and express controversial opinions keep trying to find ###### in our armour, to say we aren't meeting expectations.
What does that mean? It means we are #### good, better than the experts think, and the Talking Heads have to throw shade so people will listen. Chillax! This is all to be expected for a team that is on top of the mountain building the ole homestead there.
Life is good!
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All-In [46574]
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Joined: 7/18/12
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Re: Spread vs. Talking Heads... relax
Oct 23, 2019, 11:00 PM
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22-0 in the last 22 games and a perfect season with a National Championship!! We just can’t seem to play good for nothing.....lol
At least we are the most consistent team in college football!
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Head Coach [798]
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Point Spread Purpose
Oct 24, 2019, 8:04 AM
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Points spreads are set for one reason only, to try and get an equal numbers of people to bet on each team. The only true inference you can draw from our points spreads is that the data the analysts use tells them that gamblers will likely bet on BC if the bet is to only lose by so many points. It has absolutely nothing to do with whether the analyst think a favorite will win by 1 point or by 40. That is why I usually ridicule a friend who is a fan of another team who wants to talk trash about how his team can beat Clemson and then they want the point spread. Don’t take the bait, ask them to bet straight up or change their trash talk to “ our team is almost as good as Clemson, I bet you will only beat us by 20”
If you really want to to see what vegas thinks about our team, look at the prop bets to make the playoffs or win the CFP Championship. Those are set with the purpose of making sure the casino is not too exposed if too many people take the odds of a particular team to win it all. That will tell you more about what they think about Clemson than the point spread of any game.
Since more casual gamblers bet on playoff games and the championship game, I will be surprised if we are not underdogs to Alabama, LSU. Oklahoma. Or Ohio State. The is due to the national narrative all year long that Clemson does not play anybody and those other teams have these all world quarterbacks .You will then see the spread drop a point or two when the “smart money” comes in for Clemson. Bet on the Tigers early so you get the extra point or two.
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Orange Blooded [4596]
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Joined: 8/14/01
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Re: Point Spread Purpose
Oct 24, 2019, 9:03 AM
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Thanks for saving me the effort of making this explanation!
Should note that the spread moves as money flows to one side or the other, to try to encourage people to make the other bet. A spread set on Monday will change if on Wednesday it is announced that the QB is injured and will not play.
Message was edited by: mpercy®
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Legend [17797]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 16676
Joined: 9/1/12
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Your post Moondog should be pinned to the top of the boreds***
Oct 24, 2019, 9:08 AM
[ in reply to Point Spread Purpose ] |
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Legend [17786]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 13387
Joined: 9/16/03
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This is Truth:
Oct 24, 2019, 9:25 AM
[ in reply to Point Spread Purpose ] |
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Points spreads are set for one reason only, to try and get an equal numbers of people to bet on each team. The only true inference you can draw from our points spreads is that the data the analysts use tells them that gamblers will likely bet on BC if the bet is to only lose by so many points. It has absolutely nothing to do with whether the analyst think a favorite will win by 1 point or by 40. That is why I usually ridicule a friend who is a fan of another team who wants to talk trash about how his team can beat Clemson and then they want the point spread. Don’t take the bait, ask them to bet straight up or change their trash talk to “ our team is almost as good as Clemson, I bet you will only beat us by 20”
If you really want to to see what vegas thinks about our team, look at the prop bets to make the playoffs or win the CFP Championship. Those are set with the purpose of making sure the casino is not too exposed if too many people take the odds of a particular team to win it all. That will tell you more about what they think about Clemson than the point spread of any game.
Since more casual gamblers bet on playoff games and the championship game, I will be surprised if we are not underdogs to Alabama, LSU. Oklahoma. Or Ohio State. The is due to the national narrative all year long that Clemson does not play anybody and those other teams have these all world quarterbacks .You will then see the spread drop a point or two when the “smart money” comes in for Clemson. Bet on the Tigers early so you get the extra point or two.
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CU Guru [1222]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 1724
Joined: 11/30/98
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Re: Point Spread Purpose
Oct 24, 2019, 12:31 PM
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Great post and I agree 100%.
What spreads are a good measure of is perceptions. How many points for the general fanbase thing team A is better than team B.
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Orange Blooded [4341]
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Joined: 8/6/02
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I’ll point out this MoonDog, (what you said was right) not
Oct 24, 2019, 12:38 PM
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One line of ours has moved down yet b/c the other team getting action except TAM. This tells me the betting public is still going with the Tigers each game. Personally. I think we are a little TOO high this week with a -34-35 start. It’s an over correction.
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Legend [16186]
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Re: Point Spread Purpose
Oct 24, 2019, 12:51 PM
[ in reply to Point Spread Purpose ] |
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So the Vegas folks never set the spread in order to make a killing on the bets, always preferring the moderate solid profit of the vigorish over just killing it?
I know the story, but it seems odd.
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110%er [5512]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Joined: 10/21/15
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Re: Point Spread Purpose
Oct 24, 2019, 2:20 PM
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Correct. They want even money on both sides, which makes them a winner 100% of the time. If they try to manipulate and get a bunch of money heavy on one side, it's a liability.
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Orange Blooded [2248]
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Joined: 10/29/17
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Re: Point Spread Purpose
Oct 24, 2019, 2:42 PM
[ in reply to Point Spread Purpose ] |
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The national narrative never seems to think much of Clemson. I think that we have been favored in only one of our CFP games, last year against ND. We are 5-2 straight up and I think 6-1 against the spread.
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Walk-On [132]
TigerPulse: 95%
Posts: 163
Joined: 9/28/18
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Re: Spread vs. Talking Heads... relax
Oct 24, 2019, 1:12 PM
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I firmly believe if we finish 13-0 we will be in...the committee is composed of people who are level headed and wont leave out a 13-0 P5 champ who will be 28-0 over two seasons.
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