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Clemson Sports Icon [54053]
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The Athletic thinks our game is the most likely first round upset.
Mar 19, 2024, 4:12 PM
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“ No. 6 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 11 New Mexico Lobos
Upset Chance: 57.8 percent
Spread: New Mexico favored by 1.5 points
Here’s some sophisticated analysis: You can tell the NCAA Selection Committee botched a matchup if it would make more sense with its seeds reversed. Our model sees New Mexico as a stronger team than Clemson, seeded five spots lower, by a margin of 1.9 points per 100 possessions. (If you’re wondering whether Ken Pomeroy disagrees, he does: His website estimates the Lobos are 2 points better. Lol.) We’ve been calling New Mexico a potential Cinderella for a while, and not even because of any particularly outstanding underdog traits they carry. They’re an excellent team whose handful of close late-season losses got them undervalued by most bracketologists.”
https://theathletic.com/5353738/2024/03/19/ncaa-tournament-upset-picks-new-mexico-grand-canyon-look-to-bust-brackets-in-west-region/?source=user_shared_article
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Game Day Hero [4192]
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I expect an upset
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Mar 19, 2024, 4:13 PM
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Although, those of us in “th’ know” would not call UNM winning an upset.
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Game Day Hero [4192]
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The bottom line is that playing at this level requires a COACH
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Mar 19, 2024, 4:16 PM
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The Clemson mens basketball team does not have a coach.
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Commissioner [1270]
TigerPulse: 86%
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Re: The bottom line is that playing at this level requires a COACH
Mar 19, 2024, 5:43 PM
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Misinformation
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CU Medallion [20614]
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Re: I expect an upset
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Mar 19, 2024, 5:09 PM
[ in reply to I expect an upset ] |
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Based on what the so called "experts" and Vegas are saying and predicting, a Clemson win will be an upset. I'll take it.
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Paw Warrior [4843]
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Re: The Athletic thinks our game is the most likely first round upset.
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Mar 19, 2024, 4:14 PM
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Not sure I blame them… we’ve been less than stellar our last few outings. What might be helpful is, I believe NMST has yet to play a P5 school.
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Top TigerNet [29683]
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Re: The Athletic thinks our game is the most likely first round upset.
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Mar 19, 2024, 4:16 PM
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And the excuses begin.
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Ring of Honor [21266]
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The committee simply gave us a tougher opener but softened the
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Mar 19, 2024, 4:18 PM
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next two rounds for us as compensation is how it looks. We were absolutely headed for a 7 or 8 seed, and a tougher Round 2, but for scheduling and fit this was the solution.
Our NET and league play didn't justify a 6 on its own IMO.
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TigerNet Elite [70892]
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I agree with you about getting a 6 seed...
Mar 19, 2024, 4:59 PM
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Although the man crushing Brownell cultists will have you believe a 6 seed was entirely earned and well-se deserved.
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Clemson Sports Icon [54053]
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According to some of you, we were a bubble team who might get left out.
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Mar 19, 2024, 10:03 PM
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LOL.
I can tell it bothers you that a committee of experts thinks more highly of us than you do.
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Solid Orange [1354]
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Re: The Athletic thinks our game is the most likely first round upset.
Mar 19, 2024, 4:19 PM
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Bad matchups happen in tournaments. That is why it is important to beat the teams when you have superior talent. So you get lower seeds in the tournament which match up against worse teams. The 5-8 seeds have big chance of being matched up against a team that has improved all season into a very good team.
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TigerNet Elite [70892]
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Again...
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Mar 19, 2024, 4:56 PM
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Clemson is 1-3 in its last 4 games with two really ugly losses.
On the other hand, New Mexico is 4-0 and just won a conference tournament championship.
New Mexico also has a pretty darn good backcourt. Clemson has struggled all season to defend teams with really solid guard play.
If you take into account CBB's less than stellar tournament history, is it really surprising that people looking for upsets to boost their brackets would pick New Mexico?
I'm certainly hoping for a win but, because of the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde persona this team has displayed, especially for the last 2/3s of the season, I won't be a bit surprised if we don't.
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Clemson Sports Icon [54053]
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Brads NCAA Tournament history less than stellar?
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Mar 19, 2024, 10:07 PM
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He’s 3-3 in NCAA Tournament games at Clemson.
Compare that to some of our other recent coaches:
Oliver Purnell 0-3
Larry Shyatt 0-0
Rick Barnes 2-3
Cliff Ellis 1-2
Do you also knock these previous Clemson basketball coaches for their NCAA Tournament records? Because all are worse than Brownell.
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TigerNet Elite [70772]
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Re: The Athletic thinks our game is the most likely first round upset.
Mar 19, 2024, 5:03 PM
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I posted Sunday that you and the others were going to try and make this a big deal. Like we're some huge underdog and justify how we got jabbed by the committee in order to set up an excuse should we happen to lose. Just like everyone tried to justify we were really a tournament team last year.
The facts. Of course these pundits want to set up drama, the storylines, and get the clicks. Fact, first P5 team they've played. In one respect, Brad is correct, their conference and therefore the teams Net rank is skewed. Can't have it both ways. Smh.
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Ring of Honor [21266]
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I like our chances much better as an underdog here.
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Mar 19, 2024, 5:10 PM
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Our record as a favorite is not that great - this sets up well for us.
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Hall of Famer [8218]
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Clemson, the "upset alert" king
Mar 19, 2024, 5:07 PM
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Now, has Clemson ever been the upsetter side of this "upset alert" terminology ???
Not worth discussing but certainly seems Clemson and upset go together far too often.
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Clemson Sports Icon [54053]
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Yes, we upset several teams this year.
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Mar 19, 2024, 10:09 PM
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We beat multiple ranked teams in fact, some at their place.
Did you forget about those games?
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CU Medallion [19088]
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Top TigerNet [28419]
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Re: The Athletic thinks our game is the most likely first round upset.
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Mar 19, 2024, 5:25 PM
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I think it is as simple as looking at one school riding a hot streak and the other a cold streak. They think that gives NM an edge.
We’ll see…
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Top TigerNet [32270]
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Re: The Athletic thinks our game is the most likely first round upset.
Mar 19, 2024, 5:36 PM
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Vegas is not wrong often.
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Top TigerNet [28419]
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Re: The Athletic thinks our game is the most likely first round upset.
Mar 19, 2024, 5:40 PM
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They were wrong about NC State 
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Valley Legend [12263]
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Re: The Athletic thinks our game is the most likely first round upset.
Mar 19, 2024, 6:37 PM
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Everyone thinks this, the sharps in Vegas have smashed this.
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Playmaker [381]
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Re: The Athletic thinks our game is the most likely first round upset.
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Mar 19, 2024, 7:37 PM
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So does KenPom metrics…… New Mexico is a likely Cinderella based on past Cinderellas and their similar metrics. Doesn’t guarantee it but not the best of opponents for Clemson.
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Paw Master [17207]
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Re: The Athletic thinks our game is the most likely first round upset.
Mar 19, 2024, 8:11 PM
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We actually started out as 3 point underdogs. So, if I'm correct, the most moolah is on our Tigers.
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Commissioner [1270]
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Re: The Athletic thinks our game is the most likely first round upset.
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Mar 19, 2024, 9:59 PM
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This thing has upset (according to Vegas) written all over it as they're setting New Mexico up for failure with all this hype.
One thing about seeding I seem to notice is that the committee doesn't value it as much as the bracketologists and fans do. Fans want their team to have a #6 seed more so than the #11 seed because, well it looks better for one. But what is the difference really? There's 93% chance you're still playing the #3 seee in the next round.
The committee creates matchups and field regions, first. Whether it's 6 through 10 or 7 through 11, all these teams are pretty much interchangeable. It's probably very difficult to fit every team on their exact seed line without some sort of conference conflict or first round matchuo with a team they played earlier in the season, etc.
I've read that BYU probably got a 6 seed instead of a 4 or 5 because of their "no Sunday rule". They also got matched up with a team that could have easily been a 13 seed.
I didn't think Michigan St belonged but felt, as most of us did, they'd get a play-in game. What they got was a possible 2nd round matchup with UNC and that's good for TV.
Gonzaga as a 5 seed seems highly questionable but how else would they've have gotten a matchup with McNeese St. Gonzaga, the original Cinderella with the newest of upstart programs and possible Cinderellas. A little more of the same in St. Mary's vs Grand Canyon.
Virginia vs Colorado St pits ACC vs Mountain West.... NC State vs Tex Tech pits ACC vs Big 12
Yale vs Auburn- two teams that couldn't be more opposite. Just like boxing matches, styles create fights.
Oregon vs. South Carolina- a team with tournament experience versus a team with none. Another 6 vs 11 that's way more evenly matched that many give it credit for.
Dayton⁷ vs Nevada¹⁰ is as evenly matched as any 8vs9
If anyone got a raw deal it was Wisconsin having to play James Madison.
Lone story short... it's a new season... forget the seeding, just win!
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Replies: 24
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