Old Senior Army Friend of 30 Years Now Senior in a 3 Letter

Feb 21, 2022, 2:51 PM

Agency related this to me last week, thought I would share FWIW. We may not get WW III out of this, but this will come to blows at some measured level UNLESS NATO or Ukraine verbalize some sort of commitment to keep Ukraine formally out of NATO. Putin is deep into his stack and we just have the River left. What is funny is NATO nor Ukraine deeply desire membership, this is more about not letting "little Vlad" flex on the world stage.

Most likely courses of action in order of probability based on what he could talk about:

1) A conflict akin to the Sudetenland-type grab of Crimea and Donbas to appease Vlad's ego and create a bigger buffer zone that is pro-Russian. Still 10s of thousands of deaths.

2) A gradual de-escalation on Russian terms to save face. Continued flare up in Donbas and an insurgent attempt to de-stabilize current government to become pro-Russian

3) A fast MAJOR push from Belarus, Crimea and Western Russia coupled with huge cyber attacks. Major population centers will be bypassed including Kiev. Kiev surrounded to the Northwest, other forces stop at Dnieper then ceasefire, establishment of puppet Russian government with new real seat of pro-Ukrainian capital in Lviv. Could see 100K deaths.

4) All of scenario 3 plus support of major Serbian move into Bosnia Herzegovina. This hotspot has been getting steamy for months and has many parallels to Ukraine. Unless NATO and US want to escalate this to nuclear they likely cannot stop both of these moves if the Russians can complete combat operations within a month or are committed to a multi-year war on the continent to reestablish borders. This could trigger a conventional WW III with North Korea taking the opportunity to crash the party.

Don't ever forget Europe has a history of MAJOR conflict on the continent every 50 or so years for the last near to 1,000 years. We are overdue. Let's hope for option 2 as I don't think all our progressives, X-Box Commandos and "individual truthers" are ready to spill their blood to save another democracy. I hope I am wrong.

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Old Senior Army Friend of 30 Years Now Senior in a 3 Letter

Wow, as a Selective Service Draft Board Member, I may

Re: Old Senior Army Friend of 30 Years Now Senior in a 3 Letter

Re: Old Senior Army Friend of 30 Years Now Senior in a 3 Letter

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