Winning is always better… right? Or is it?

Mar 1, 2018, 3:03 PM

Common thought when it comes to NCAA Basketball is get hot at the right time, make a run, and there’s a good chance you end up taking those ever sought after 4 to 5 steps up a ladder with scissors in your hands to cut down the nets… but does this thought come with some major flaws? Can you be hot “to long” only to have your steam come up just short? Could it actually be better to have a timely loss down the stretch? Could losing late in your respective conference tournament actually be a benefit?

In the last 40 years in which the NCAA has crowned a National Champion, all the way back to the 1978 season, the numbers do not favor those who went into the tournament on a long winning streak. Currently, the nation’s longest active winning streaks are Michigan State with 12, and Gonzaga and St. Bonnie’s with 11 each. Each team is favored to win their respective Conference tournaments, extending their winning streaks by 3 to 4 games depending on the team’s associated tournament. Running the table through the conference tournaments, and then winning the national championship would mean that MSU wins their final 21 games, and Gonzaga and St. Bonnie’s final 20 games.

The last team to win a National Championship ending the season on a winning streak of 20 or greater is the 1995 UCLA Bruins, who lost their second game of the season, and rattled on 26 consecutive wins. That’s only 2.5% over the last 40 years. The next longest consecutive win streak to end a season with a National Championship is the 1986 Louisville Cardinals who ended the season on a 17 game win streak. During the same stretch, since 1978, 17, yes I repeat, 17 teams have lost their respective Conference Championship games, and went on to win the National Championship, which makes up over 42% of the National Champions in the last 40 years. Every National Champion since 2014, Uconn, Duke, Villanova and UNC, lost in their respective Conference Title games. Additionally, 32 of the 40, or an overwhelming 80% of teams, ended their season on a 13 or less game winning streak, including the Conference Tourneys and NCAA Tourney.

I am not saying your team should try to lose, expect to lose, or even be content with suffering a late loss in your respective Conference Tourney, but could the tarnished spot on the record actually be just the thing your team needs? Whether it boils down to a psychological thing, physical thing or mental thing, it’s hard to win that many games in a row. So if you happen to be a fan of one of the teams who are entering their conference tourney on an extended winning streak, don’t panic if you find yourself staring at the TV, losing as the clocks winds down in the Semi's or Conference Championship, history is in your favor.

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Winning is always better… right? Or is it?

The tough part is finding out which game to lose. Pittsburgh in 2016 worked out ok.

"Sometimes when you win...

Re: "Sometimes when you win...

how do you know if you ever truly win thoug cuz you could end up losing though

Great research! I think what you're also seeing is partly

Re: Great research! I think what you're also seeing is partly

Re: Winning is always better… right? Or is it?

Conference tournaments are for making money, not for ...

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