Updated "Scenario That Nobody is Talking About"

Nov 8, 2022, 10:37 AM

We didn't hold up our end of the post I made here, but a few of the steps are in place for it possibly to still happen. Here's an updated version:

1) LSU Wins Out including beating UGA
2) Clemson or UNC wins out
3) TCU wins out
4) tOSU-Michigan winner wins out and the other team only has that loss
5) USC-UCLA winner wins out including beating 11-1 Oregon

13-0 B1G Champ tOSU or Michigan is in as 1 seed
13-0 Big 12 Champ TCU is in - most likely as 2 seed

Teams available for the 3rd and 4th slots:
1) 12-1 Pac XII Champ USC or UCLA
2) 11-1 tOSU-Michigan game loser
3) 11-2 SEC Champ LSU (who lost to FSU and TN)
4) 12-1 SEC Runner-Up Georgia (who lost to LSU in Championship)
5) 11-1 Tennessee (who lost to Georgia)
6) 12-1 ACC Champ Clemson or UNC

I suspect that the 12-1 Pac XII Champ is in at that point as the 3rd team. After that it's a crapshoot - do you let a 2-win SEC champ who lost to a 11-1 team in? Do you let a 12-1 Georgia in who just lost the SEC Championship (I'd say this is probably the most likely to happen)? Do you give the nod to the tOSU-Michigan loser? Or maybe does the 12-1 ACC Champ sneak in? Still possible that they'd pick the 1-loss Pac XII and ACC Champs over the rest - which would shut out the SEC.

The above scenario won't happen because additional chaos WILL happen. Most notably - nobody expects LSU to beat UGA. TCU looks as vulnerable as we have looked. Either us or UNC could slip to 2 losses and then still win the ACC championship. Oregon could win the Pac XII or a 2-loss team could.

If Clemson wants to make the playoff, then in addition to winning out we probably need at least two of the following to happen:
1) TCU losing a game
2) USC, UCLA, and Oregon all ending up with 2 losses
3) Michigan-tOSU Loser also losing another game
4) A completely unexpected upset (USCar/MO/Vandy over Tennessee, somebody plus LSU beating Georgia)
5) LSU losing a 3rd game but then beating UGA

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Updated "Scenario That Nobody is Talking About"

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At this point, nobody wants anything to do w/playoffs***

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