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car biz about to implode?
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car biz about to implode?


Dec 17, 2022, 11:26 AM

this dealer guy seems convinced. Makes sense when you consider the average car payment is $667 a month. Seems obvious to me that people just won't be doing as many trade-ins.

https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1603794722140688384?s=20&t=_p5ccLQ2DsYoQ8HOWdrsFA

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this crossed my mind recently


Dec 17, 2022, 11:51 AM

the number of people insanely buying cars at crazy high prices well over MSRP. Overinvesting on an item whose value drops significantly every year (as opposed to housing/real estate).

There have to be real consequences to that.

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Posted about this a month or two ago


Dec 17, 2022, 11:54 AM

There are lots full of repos now in every big city. People said screw it when Covid hit and bought whatever they wanted, like the end of the world was coming. Same thing happened with RV’s, and my local Malibu/Nautique dealer couldn’t keep $150k+ wakeboats in stock.

These people didn’t do this because they got wealthier, they did it on the backs of financing, and a big reckoning is coming in those markets.

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Re: Posted about this a month or two ago


Dec 17, 2022, 11:56 AM

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/economics/car-repossessions-are-rise-warning-sign-economy-rcna61916


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This should work out I hope. I'll need a new car in a year


Dec 17, 2022, 11:57 AM

or two.

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Seems to be taking awhile for the unintended consequences to


Dec 17, 2022, 12:03 PM [ in reply to Posted about this a month or two ago ]

shake out: shut down economies for a while, then try to buy our way out by printing trillions of $$ almost instantly. Is there any normal and stable market out there right now?


Message was edited by: CUintulsa®


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true, but the suggestion that lenders will be so chippy


Dec 17, 2022, 12:55 PM [ in reply to Posted about this a month or two ago ]

that they'd subvert a basic risk management rule at the expense of their competitors seems like a bit of a fantasy. Lending is just going to get tighter, so fewer lender-financed trade-ins, which means prices are going to come down much more quickly on the new inventory.

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And I was going to post this separately, but this is


Dec 17, 2022, 11:55 AM

As good a place as any…..new G550 squared at a MD dealer. Check out the markup.

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Pity the guy who buys it.


Dec 17, 2022, 12:03 PM

Maybe the point of the thread is that no one is going to.

Edit: Had breakfast with 4 guys last Wednesday. One has a chemical company, sells a certain grade of plastic to Detroit automakers. Says their orders have dropped to very low levels. Another is a manager for a company that makes seats for BMW and Volvo. Said in the years he has been there they have shut down Thanksgiving day only, never that Friday. This year shut down the entire week, might do it again at Christmas. Some bad news on that front might be coming.


Message was edited by: CUintulsa®

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market adjustment $250k???


Dec 17, 2022, 1:03 PM [ in reply to And I was going to post this separately, but this is ]

hilarity impregnated with a strong guttural dose of Germanic hubris.

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It’s been bizarre for the past couple years.


Dec 17, 2022, 1:10 PM

There’s been a “gotta have it NOW” mindset in the car market that I have never seen before. It’s made zero sense. It’s spiked the collector market, led to markups like this one actually working out for some dealers, and led to such silliness as mass produced luxury and sports cars appreciating instantly in value the minute they drive off the lot. It’s completely unsustainable.

On a really large scale, it feels like the late 80’s Ferrari market, that was out of control and went down in flames when the Japanese economy tanked.

2024 orange level memberbadge-donor-20yr.jpgringofhonor-obed.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up


I have a 2020 Tahoe


Dec 17, 2022, 1:00 PM

and I am SERIOUSLY thinking about selling it and getting a beater Wrangler. A late 1990’s model.

With no boat and I can’t ski for another 1-2 years, I only drive back and forth to work. Plus the wife has a new Grand Cherokee so we can take that to ski trips for her and the kids.

All around. I am #### sick and tired of $700 a month.

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