The "Thinning Of The Herd" 11/13 Edition

Nov 13, 2022, 6:35 AM

My weekly public service of the over-analyzation of who the Top 4 Teams will be. It typically starts in October when people wonder how the committee will deal with more than 4 undefeated teams at year’s end. Once there are less than 4 undefeated teams, the battle then becomes to be the prettiest one loss team

But all the worry about too many quality CFP teams is for not. The inevitable will happen….it’s called “the thinning of the herd” and I’ll post it each Sunday to help ease those of you that have this annual “fear”

Recap Of Last Week
The Herd had some blowout wins this week. USC, Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Tennessee, and Clemson cruised to victories. TCU got a gutsy win in Austin. And LSU looked about as ugly as you can look but still win. North Carolina’s defense actually played well, giving up only 34 points to Wake in a 36-34 win.

But the Herd does was the Herd does…and that is lose members from its pack. Washington sent the Pac 12 into more disarray by knocking off Oregon in Eugene. That, coupled with the Arizona defeat of UCLA puts all the Pac 12 cookies in the USC jar. And Alabama, without their own hopes for the CFP, dashed the hopes of Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin.

Last week I predicted 2 from the Herd would fall…and that proved to be an undersell as the field went from 12 to 9. And there are still 2 more weeks in November BEFORE conference championships.

Next Week: Guaranteed Thinning Will Take Place
None of the 9 teams in the herd play each other, so no guarantee we see thinning next week. But don’t fool yourself into thinking we won't lose some of the Herd.

"Upset Alert”
Georgia (10-0) at Kentucky is a stretch for the upset alert as the Wildcats just lost to Vandy. But going on the road against a team that just had their pride stomped on can sometimes be interesting.

TCU (10-0) at Baylor. Same situation as Georgia. The Horn Frogs looked human on offense last week and travel to a Baylor team that was ambushed by Kansas State. On the road.

USC (9-1) is the last hope for the Pac 12 and it is typical of that conference to eat its own. UCLA was eliminated from the CFP this week and will have a chance to place that dagger into someone else next week.

Will Keep Winning....For Now
Illinois has lost two in a row and it’s hard to see how they can go into the Big House and knock off 10-0 Michigan.

Maryland has looked like Maryland the last 2 weeks (and that is not a compliment). So, even though Ohio State (10-0) is on the road, they will continue winning, setting up that head to head with Michigan.

Clemson (9-1) looked like pre-Syracuse Clemson in drubbing Louisville. At home, and with an offense that shook off whatever ailed it vs. Syracuse and ND, the Tigers will keep winning.

North Carolina (9-1) will score enough to overcome bad defense as the Tar Heels host Georgia Tech.

Tennessee (9-1) did their sleep walking for a while vs. Missouri before waking up. Scar’s chance of them sleep walking next week most likely vanished about midway through the 3rd quarter in Neyland.

For some reason, LSU hosts UAB. What are we doing playing non-conference games in November???

Final Thoughts:
Like last week, one can look at the schedule and think the Herd is safe. No guaranteed thinning and even those on upset alert appear to be there just because I have a category for them to fit into.

But, it’s November. And November brings losses….even when you may not expect it.

When the sun comes up November 20th, we still may have 9 teams in the herd. But I doubt it. In fact, my prediction is we will lose 2 more and we will head to rivalry week with only 7 teams dreaming of the CFP.

“The Road Back To The College Football Playoffs, Begins With The Tiger Pregame Show”