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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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You know how I know this housing market isn't sustainable?
Mar 8, 2021, 11:09 AM
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I saw a house in Surfside Beach that came up for sale this weekend I wanted to go look at. I called my realtor up there and she politely said "don't bother". She said it would never appraise for how much the seller is asking, but it didn't matter because since it is that close to the beach, it would have 8-10 offers and at least half of those would be cash offers.
Its pretty amazing watching this happen. I'm not sure how it ends, but I gotta think it rhymes with "2007-2009".
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All-In [46825]
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That's why I'm trying to slide in before this bubble busts***
Mar 8, 2021, 11:11 AM
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All-In [40656]
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Sir, you don't have to worry about housing bubbles in BFE***
Mar 8, 2021, 11:14 AM
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CU Medallion [73569]
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All-In [46825]
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Renting, even in BFE, is insane as well
Mar 8, 2021, 11:22 AM
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people wanting 900-1000 per month for a single wide on a half acre of land.
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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Thats what I'm currently doing, and did so with that thought
Mar 8, 2021, 11:30 AM
[ in reply to the smart thing would be to sell your house now and rent ] |
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in mind. I started seeing it last year, probably sold a little early, and figured there was no way this market was sustainable. But we are on month 10-12 of this "not being sustainable".
My lease ends in Oct, and luckily if needed I can extend that until March of next year if I want. And I like living here; there's no way I could afford this place if I wasn't renting it. I couldn't even afford the dirt the house sits on.
But it does make me wonder *a lot*: "where does this end?".
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All-In [36450]
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CU Medallion [73569]
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lol, oh ya, forgot***
Mar 8, 2021, 12:32 PM
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All-In [34593]
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All-In [40656]
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The only thing I can think that would rhyme with "2007-2009"
Mar 8, 2021, 11:14 AM
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2007-2009 - #### you fine
Hoping she can sock it to me one more time
Get low (get low) get low (get low)
Get low (get low) get low (get low)
To the window (to the window)
To the wall (to the wall)
'Til the sweat drop down my balls (my balls)
'Til all these ####### crawl (crawl)
'Til all skeet skeet mo'fuckas, all skeet skeet god ####! (mo'fuckas!)
Til all skeet skeet mo'fuckas, all skeet skeet god ####! (I got down)
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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I'm sorry, I don't speak jive***
Mar 8, 2021, 11:15 AM
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Oculus Spirit [79253]
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RASSIST***
Mar 8, 2021, 11:16 AM
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All-In [43727]
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All-In [36450]
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All-In [40656]
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Funny story
Mar 8, 2021, 4:16 PM
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My BIL proposed to my SIL during this song.
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All-In [43727]
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One can't just squeeze that in or lob it over the proverbial
Mar 8, 2021, 4:19 PM
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fence and not provide some deets.
Moar info sil vous plait.
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Oculus Spirit [79253]
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Most likely he was deepdicking her at a college party and
Mar 8, 2021, 4:23 PM
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this was on in the back ground. He was a lil drunk and on E and once he blew his penis-sneaze in her roastbeef tissue, he asked her to marry him. Unluckily, she was not on E and remembered it all.
Also, they had a babby.
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All-In [40656]
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BIL and SIL
Mar 8, 2021, 4:26 PM
[ in reply to One can't just squeeze that in or lob it over the proverbial ] |
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have dated since high school. But he also dated other folks during that time period (high school and college). When they met in high school, 'Get Low' was apparently playing.
During their senior year of college, BIL inseminated SIL so they decided getting engaged was the move. He took her to dinner and stayed past closing time and had coordinated with the manager/waiters to play 'Get Low' and apparently he did a dance to it and then dropped down on one knee and proposed.
So anyone that says true love doesn't exist, is... probably right.
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All-In [43727]
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I was hoping for a better story than that.
Mar 8, 2021, 4:30 PM
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I and was REALLY hoping that sweat dropping down mah bawls was going to be the centerpiece of it.
But here we are.
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All-In [40656]
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I mean, the sweat probably dripped down his balls
Mar 8, 2021, 4:36 PM
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at some point, with multiple women during this time period.
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Oculus Spirit [79253]
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#### I was close.***
Mar 8, 2021, 4:39 PM
[ in reply to BIL and SIL ] |
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Oculus Spirit [97727]
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Same thing. And the best part is it's now the
Mar 8, 2021, 11:15 AM
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Federal Reserve buying mortgage backed securities. Yep, those same ones that caused the housing collapse. They're just now running the show. But it's broader than that. People are throwing money at houses, trucks, education, medical care, stonks, stocks, bitcoin, anything to make a buck.
This ends with something not good.
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All-In [46825]
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I'm wondering what is going to happen once
Mar 8, 2021, 11:17 AM
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the majority of the world is vaccinated against COVID and things go back to normal.
I don't have data on this, but what I've seen from people I know is they are taking this stimulus money and using it on a down payment getting into debt because interest rates are so low.
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All-In [40656]
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Stimmy payments don't even cover due diligence
Mar 8, 2021, 11:18 AM
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Where most people live.
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All-In [46825]
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They do if you have 15 kids***
Mar 8, 2021, 11:20 AM
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Hall of Famer [21940]
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I think it ends in stagflation
Mar 8, 2021, 11:21 AM
[ in reply to Same thing. And the best part is it's now the ] |
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prices will reach a point where there aren't buyers, but there will still be tons of money out there in market.
we're in a mess.
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Hall of Famer [24477]
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Agree. There is too much money being dumped into
Mar 8, 2021, 11:31 AM
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the supply for this to be the same as the 2009 bubble, but the rise against other assets can't go on forever.
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Hall of Famer [21940]
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I agree somewhat
Mar 8, 2021, 11:18 AM
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on the sustainability piece, at some point, we're going to reach an equilibrium and the buyers will run out.
but as long as the fed keeps propping up these assets, and people are working from home, I don't see it "crashing" like '07, without a much bigger full collapse scenario taking place.
there's too much money out there and people are leaving the big cities in droves. $1M house to big city folks isn't ####, especially if they're able to keep making the big city salaries.
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All-In [46825]
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I was having this conversation with a realtor this weekend
Mar 8, 2021, 11:20 AM
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back in the 80's and 90's everybody left the rural areas because manufacturing was drying up. Now rent and mortgages in the cities/suburbs are going through the roof so people are starting to move back to rural areas and commuting since you now have electric/hybrid cars and better mpg.
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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Thats the thing I don't get.
Mar 8, 2021, 11:22 AM
[ in reply to I agree somewhat ] |
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Who is buying the houses they are leaving?
And if businesses are anything like where I work (and I think most are), they won't continue to pay people outrageous salaries if they can get someone else who is virtual to do the same job for less money. We're sending jobs overseas as hard as we can. If someone can do a job remotely here, why can't it be done remotely--but in Asia?
The end to this, at least to me seems to be radically high unemployment and a drive down in salaries, and a lot of houses for sale on the cheap...but I'm usually 100% wrong when I try to prognosticate any further out than how long I can drive on a tank of gas.
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Hall of Famer [21940]
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that's something I haven't thought of
Mar 8, 2021, 1:58 PM
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until your post now. maybe most of these people are renting in the cities? I have no idea. But that's a good question that I'd like to see some theories on if anyone knows. There have been a few articles in the journal regarding cratering property valuations and the rental market getting absolutely skull ###### in big cities...so who knows. Maybe the impacts are already being felt there?
I think the wage issue will remain inflated for a couple years. Basically the new "modern" job cycles are like 2 - 3 years, right? so once turnover runs for an entire cycle, if this happens, wages across the board will be lower for the replacement. i.e. hiring someone for an NYC job, but they can work remote. I've seen this already happening for job openings (through frands) where a job in Chicago was not inflated for the COL. This could lead to a dramatic pull back, for sure, but not a crash w/ the Fed buying MBSes like Tiggity pointed out.
I think it may start similarly to '07. Gas prices go up, other costs go up. The ripples will be felt in certain sectors quicker than others, and eventually we'll be in another recession.
We can't tax or print our way out of this situation either. We need organic economic growth (not to get all P&R'y), and nobody in Washington seems willing or able to make decisions to facilitate that. No matter how you slice it, I think we're really fooked, and even worse, have no idea how to fix it.
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Lot o points [155929]
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It's easy...we just lower the Fed rate a point or two
Mar 8, 2021, 2:46 PM
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Oh, wait....
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Oculus Spirit [79253]
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SURFSIDE BEACH??
Mar 8, 2021, 11:19 AM
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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Something there I should know?
Mar 8, 2021, 11:24 AM
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Its about 4 miles from Murrell's Inlet Marsh walk, and that's all I'm moving for anyway. Well that, and because Mt Pleasant has turned into a mish mash of New Jersey/New York and Ohio.
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Oculus Spirit [79253]
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Eh, that's Myrtle beach if i'm not mistaken
Mar 8, 2021, 11:32 AM
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It's taken it over.
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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not near as many condos
Mar 8, 2021, 11:34 AM
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and no sky wheel.
There is a pretty cool downtown area; reminds me of Folly beach's center street. Or at least what it was 10 years ago.
There are some neat places kind of hidden back there.
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All-In [46825]
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It's fine. But as soon as you hit GC you might as well be
Mar 8, 2021, 2:43 PM
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in Myrtle
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All-In [31896]
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How would a home value dropping on someone that...
Mar 8, 2021, 11:31 AM
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paid in cash cause any real bubble-related issue with the economy? The issue before is people defaulting on mortgages. If people are paying cash for houses that appraise for less than the purchase price...who cares? Of course, the appraisals will catch up if that keeps happening.
Now...I get that all situations aren't like that and the chance for a bubble burst impacting mortgages still exists, but I don't think it would be anything like the last go-around.
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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You hit it on the head.
Mar 8, 2021, 11:39 AM
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It only takes 2-3 sales in a 2-3 mile area to change a lot of home values; especially when the increase is 30% more than the last house that sold there just last month.
But that's my question here--are the houses that are there now all of a sudden really worth that much more? Or is this just a bubble, based on other factors?
Yankees coming from up north spending a 1/3 more on a house in a town they've never done a summer/fall/hurricane season could have their value changed dramatically in a just a few months just due to heat, humidity and having to bug out 2-4 times.
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Oculus Spirit [79429]
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Pendleton real estate continues to amaze me
Mar 8, 2021, 11:38 AM
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Who is buying this? Why? A 9k sq ft. lot next to Pendleton high is really worth what, maybe $4500? If this keeps up my house is going to be my retirement plan.
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/110-Spyglass-Ln-6_Pendleton_SC_29670_M91755-80568 110 Spyglass Ln Lot 6, Pendleton, SC, 29670 | realtor.com® Welcome to Piper Glen, a friendly neighborhood of quality, style & convenience - located in Pendleton. Piper Glen offers a highly-desirable location, next door to classic Boscobel Golf & Country Club & only a 1/2 mile to acclaimed Pendleton High School. The Clemson area is your back-yard, & the historic town of Pendleton is a quick drive away -providing easy access to top shopping destinations. You & your family will enjoy taking evening strolls & invigorating, brisk morning walks. This land is graced with beautiful trees & protected natural areas that provide a beautiful setting. Within this community, GSH offers floorplan options ranging from 3- to 5-bedrooms, 2- to 4-baths and 2-car garages. Homes have been carefully designed to incorporate durable exteriors, and construction methods offer low-maintenance living with a mix of all-brick, vinyl siding or stone. Piper Glen is controlled by architectural guidelines to protect values, to create & maintain attractive streetscapes. At Piper Glen, you'll enjoy many other standard features such as Honeywell's home automation system, a Residential Energy Guarantee, & built-in sound system.
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All-In [47750]
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LOL at realtors....."classic Boscobel Golf & Country Club"***
Mar 8, 2021, 12:16 PM
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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"vintage"***
Mar 8, 2021, 12:19 PM
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Orange Blooded [4701]
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I can't wait to move in a few years when everyone is selling
Mar 8, 2021, 12:20 PM
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the house they can no longer afford.
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All-In [40934]
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What will turn their houses unaffordable?
Mar 8, 2021, 2:02 PM
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Making less money? Other bills? Nobody is getting stuck with an ARM right now.
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Orange Blooded [4701]
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Biden, Pelosi...
Mar 8, 2021, 2:06 PM
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I live in an area where a lot of people flocked to in the past year, often sight unseen.
When things cycle back to normalcy people aren't going to stay here (in their 2nd or 3rd homes) forever.
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Oculus Spirit [75719]
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So, we got ####### that can pay cash for
Mar 8, 2021, 2:45 PM
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oceanfront yet people don't want to give burger flippers a few bucks. Yeah, makes perfect sense.
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All-In [46825]
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Don't be bringing liberal #### in here***
Mar 8, 2021, 2:46 PM
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All-In [34593]
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Oculus Spirit [75719]
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Hi, I don't think we've met, I'm not sure anyone in here
Mar 8, 2021, 2:49 PM
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has ever seen me relaxed.
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All-In [31896]
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frankly I don't want to "give" anybody a dang thing....
Mar 8, 2021, 3:04 PM
[ in reply to So, we got ####### that can pay cash for ] |
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people ought to earn what they're worth (economically speaking) and they're worth (economically speaking) the highest that someone is willing to pay them.
All of this discussion about $15 min wage is so abstract on a very complicated subject. Many people speak on this issue without a clue as to how many people are actually working for min wage, for how long (which is a big part that is rarely considered), and where they are in life (part-timer, dependent, head-of-household, etc...).
If someone is working a min wage job, and shows up and works hard every day and does a good job, they are NOT going to be on min wage for long. Heck, I have a hard time hiring people that can do that in a manufacturing job in a very cheap place to live paying $17/hr plus very good benefits and a bonus system. We hired 5 people on Monday of last week for a good job and today, 3 of them are no call/no show terminations (meaning they no call/no show for 3 days).
An no one seems to want to discuss the impact of the wage scale all the way by bumping up the min wage to $15 so quickly (over a few yrs is quick in my opinion).
Plus, the whole discussion of a federal min wage being centered around a "living wage" is crazy. A living wage where? The cost of living difference across the country are huge. Even within a given state can be pretty dramatic.
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Oculus Spirit [75719]
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Here's the thing, and keep in mind how long I did payroll.
Mar 8, 2021, 3:29 PM
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We started tellers at like $12 an hour. You know, the people who have a chance of getting a gun pointed at their face or if they mess up could send money right out the door. On a Good year, this person would get a 3% raise. This person would have to work 8 years to get to $15. It was also rare to see folks with that type job ever get a chance to do anything else other than head teller or on the service desk. The backroom people were much the same way. In all my time there I only saw 5-6 folks truly ascend from where they came in.
This here wage scale should have been moving up but the wealthy keep the well to do so scared that they want to fight it.
Now maybe there simply needs to be some sort of tax incentive for companies to pay the low folks better. Maybe we need some sort of qualifying system to boost wages. For example if you can manage to show up every time you get hired you get more. The folks like you example can stay at $7.25 for all I care.
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All-In [31896]
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Why do people stay in that job if they're capable of...
Mar 8, 2021, 4:12 PM
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doing/earning more?
I don't think "the wealthy" are scaring anyone. I think people who have to run businesses are the ones against this.
No one wants to really say it, but the reason the avg hourly wages have been stagnant is the shear number of available workers that fall into the category I mentioned above.
I can't find people to fill jobs at a decent starting wage and they aren't not showing up because of the pay. If I were to increase the starting wage by $1/hr, I would get the same people coming in AND it would scale up all the other workers. So what we do is we give pretty big increase for seniority with the bump after year 1 being the biggest. So someone starting at $15/hr gets a $2/hr bump after year 1 and a $1.50 bump after year 2 and it decreases from there on. Also get bumps for being trained on more than one jump, off-shift premiums, etc...
The way it SHOULD work is that when we have a hard time finding employees, we should have to pay more to compete with other employers. But no one is raising the low end of the scale because they don't get better workers when they do. And for the type of lower-skilled positions we have open, we pay the highest in the area, so we're likely getting better folks than others.
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Oculus Spirit [75719]
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Because looking for work is worse than going to work.
Mar 8, 2021, 4:20 PM
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10 years ago I'd have probably jumped at $17. These days I'd hardly call that a good wage.
Now, I think some sectors are starting to see that shortage and and are paying people more. The chic-fil-a close to me advertises $13.00/hour to start, somehow all of the fast food joints are hiring so maybe that will bump up that wage.
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All-In [31896]
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The problem is (I think) that they are all hiring...
Mar 8, 2021, 4:40 PM
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because that worker segment is happier staying home and collecting enhanced unemployment versus working.
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Oculus Spirit [75719]
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Oh, no doubt. There are who knows how many people
Mar 8, 2021, 5:16 PM
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doing that. Also I'd have no problem with tradeoffs. Right now it is fairly difficult to get fired. I've no problem at all it being easier to get let go for mistakes. Just have a list of stuff that can get somebody canned and have some proof they did it.
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Hall of Famer [21940]
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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I keep wondering when programming gets automated
Mar 8, 2021, 5:04 PM
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there's gonna be a lot of folks looking for work.
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Oculus Spirit [75719]
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Joined: 10/26/03
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Just don't Twilight Zone yourself.
Mar 8, 2021, 5:18 PM
[ in reply to no, no, no, no....wrong ] |
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The one where the plant manager bought a robot that automated everything and fired the workers, then fired him, then the system fired the robot.
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All-In [40934]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 42954
Joined: 11/30/98
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My 14 year old granddaughter works for minimum wage
Mar 8, 2021, 3:41 PM
[ in reply to frankly I don't want to "give" anybody a dang thing.... ] |
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she has a worker's permit. Her check is about 140 for two weeks after they take out about 20 in taxes. I doubt she will have a job if they raise the min wage to $15/hour. She doesn't need or deserve $15/hour.
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Oculus Spirit [75719]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 108850
Joined: 10/26/03
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What does she do? She seems like a prime candidate to put
Mar 8, 2021, 3:45 PM
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most of that money right back into the economy rather than save it.
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All-In [40934]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 42954
Joined: 11/30/98
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Runs a register at a dog washing place
Mar 9, 2021, 10:43 AM
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she's saving for a car
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Oculus Spirit [75719]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 108850
Joined: 10/26/03
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See paying her more moves her on down the line of being
Mar 9, 2021, 11:00 AM
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a good little consumer.
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